Next year will kick off on Thursday, August 30th, with the bulk of games starting Saturday, September 1st. Interestingly, this year there is no Labor Day night game (although that obviously may change), which for the past several years has featured an ACC matchup — this past year, it introduced us to Maryland's winning entry in the Worst Uniforms of All-Time contest.

The first Thursday Night game for ESPN game is usually an SEC affair and usually involves South Carolina, and this year is no different, with the Gamecocks traveling to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt.

These are two teams that seem perpetually on the brink of two different desired realities: for Vanderbilt, to be a solid SEC program that nobody can take for granted. For South Carolina, a division championship and entry into college football's elite. I'm thinking we will be in for a close matchup.

Friday offers an even better game: Boise State travels to Michigan State for their annual showdown with a top-25 foe. Boise has been very successful in these forays, including on the road, but now they will have to do it without Kellen Moore. On paper I think Michigan State looks better, but I can't bring myself to pick against Boise.

Here are some of Saturday's key matchups:

Alabama vs. Michigan (in Dallas)

Obviously the game of the week. Michigan took great strides back to national relevancy last year, winning a BCS game. Is next year the year they snag a Big Ten title and start the year off by beating the national champions? No! It's not!

Clemson vs. Auburn (in Atlanta)

Clemson has been to Atlanta to kick off the season before, in 2008 against Alabama. Clemson was ranked 9th going into the season and Alabama 25th. But the Tide handled Clemson that day and would go on to reach No. 1 in the rankings before relinquishing it to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. This year, no one will be expecting much of Auburn, so the Tigers will hope history doesn't repeat itself.

Tennessee vs. North Carolina State (in Atlanta)

Yes, the organizers of the Chick-Fil-A College Kickoff are making it a doubleheader this year, with an undercard of two programs that have seen better days, Tennessee at North Carolina State. But ESPN is high on the Wolf Pack for the coming year, putting them in their "Way Too Early Top 25." Still, there's an overall talent difference to be made up between an also-ran ACC team and an also-ran SEC team.

Notre Dame vs. Navy (in Dublin, Ireland)

Top o' the mornin'! The lads from Our Lady are travelin' to the home of their mascot's forefathers! How happy the good people of Eire are to be the symbol of a once-great gridironin' program, in toiny punchin' leprechaun form! Faith n' begorrah, the lads better be wearing green right down to their knickers, aye!

Beyond those games, the soup gets pretty thin, even for Week 1. Some other games of semi-note:

UCLA at Rice

I'm circling this game because I happened to watch it the last time these teams hooked up in Houston. I remember it because Rice jumped out to an early lead, and a player started gleefully shouting, "THEY DON'T LIKE TEXAS FOOTBALL!" from the sidelines. Needless to say, UCLA went on to win easily. So we will see if this time Rice can be the avatar of the state they apparently feel they should be.

Southern Miss at Nebraska

Now this is a spicy little meatball. I'm sure when Nebraska scheduled it, it was viewed as a gimme win. But Southern Miss took out Houston from the ranks of the undefeated last year, and will not be an easy matchup for the Cornhuskers at all.

Texas-San Antonio at South Alabama

This game marks the Division 1-A debut for both of these schools. USA (yes, that's how they abbreviate it) will be joining the Sun Belt, and UTSA, along with Texas State, will be joining the now-dilapidated WAC. The WAC now has just seven teams for football, and I thought the NCAA required eight, but apparently not. USA and UTSA went a combined 5-7 last year against 1-AA opponents, and UTSA dropped a game to Division III McMurry, so it's going to be a tough road to hoe for these two programs.

Two of those are wrong. You can debate all you like, but the facts are the facts. Djokovic's 2011 was, indeed, astounding, and many hailed it as the best year ever. How short some memories are...

Has Roger Federer's 2006 been erased from history? He won three slams, like Djokovic, and reached the final of the other — surpassing Djokovic — and had a far better win-loss record on the season, coming within one win of John McEnroe's record.

The only way in which Djokovic's season was better, was his more impressive start, going 41 matches unbeaten from the start of 2011. But even that falls short of McEnroe's record.

The third is a matter of debate. Could Djokovic join the ranks of the greats? Certainly. Will he? Perhaps, perhaps not. Five grand slams is an impressive feat, but it isn't quite what makes one of the greats. Federer has 16, Sampras has 14, Laver has 11, Borg has 11, and Nadal has 10. Lendl and McEnroe have 8 and 7, respectively.

But no matter how many slams they won, they had something else about them that made them special. Something that made them "great" before they won those slams. McEnroe was famous for his fiery temper on the court. Perhaps it is not the best thing to be remembered for, but it made him stand out. Lendl brought something new to the game in that he made it what it is today, with supreme levels of fitness and strength; he was the first of the modern tennis players. Borg won the French and Wimbledon back-to-back three times, and he won Wimbledon five times in a row, the first man in the modern era to do so.

Each had something more than just a prolific winning streak. Perhaps Djokovic will be known for his impressive consistency or for his aggressive play. Will he be known for his surprising turnaround in his mental game, from retiring all too quickly from imagined injuries and turning into a force that can win five-set matches back-to-back against a world No. 4 and the world No. 2? Will it be the mental change triggered because he hadn't won a slam in three years, and then suddenly someone flicked a switch and he couldn't lose?

Or will he dominate 2012, as well? Will he be the first man since Laver to complete a calendar grand slam? That would surely put him in the history books. It would bump him up to 8 grand slam titles, too. And perhaps he will go one step further this year and surpass McEnroe's record and have the best win-loss record in a single year every recorded. If anyone can do it, Djokovic can.

2011 was the year that made Djokovic. Can 2012 be the year he breaks all the records and becomes a legend? Only time will tell.

So what does he need to do to secure his place among the greats? One thing is for sure, however odd it may seem to say it: he needs to up his game. He is a very consistent player, and works well both defensively, but best when he is on the offense. That is both his greatest strength and his biggest weakness.

His great run in 2011 was halted by a shoulder injury, brought on by the sheer number of matches he was playing. But that is no excuse. Back in 2006, Federer compiled a far superior win-loss record on the season without injury. Perhaps that is down to his graceful, flowing game, which is less physically demanding on the body? If so, there is not much Djokovic can do about it. He can't alter his style of game, especially when it is proving so fruitful.

However, something within his control is the length of his matches. Djokovic spends a lot of time on court, both during points, and in between them. He is on court far more than necessary.

In his Wimbledon final against Nadal in July last year, he spent an average of just over 30 seconds in between points. Aside from the fact that 25 seconds is the maximum time permitted in the rules of tennis (unless a tournament announces otherwise before the event starts), Roger Federer takes on average 7 to 10 seconds between points, making his matches much shorter. There is something to be learned here. Get off the court ASAP, and get the maximum amount of rest after the match is over.

Also, Djokovic has the weapons to finish points a lot quicker than he does. Yes, he likes to build his plays slowly, but he is good enough to put the ball in one corner, then the other, and then come into the net to finish the point off. Djokovic always seems wary of the net. His net play is good — not brilliant, but good enough — and he should use it to finish the points more quickly.

He seems to have Nadal's number, and so, as in 2011, it is safe to think Nadal won't pose too much of a threat. He'll put up a good fight, but the fire is gone. He doesn't believe he can beat Djokovic any more.

The case is not the same with Andy Murray. The pair are friends, and Murray is coming on in leaps and bounds with new coach Ivan Lendl. Murray may be the one who will stand in Djokovic's way in 2012. He is the biggest threat. The Scot may not have won a slam, but he is hungry, and he now has both the physical and the mental game to challenge the top three for the major titles.

As for 2012 being a record-breaking year for Djokovic? I don't think he'll break any records — other than the longest Australian Open final — but he's certain on having another great year.

Is this for real?

If they can beat Saint Mary's on Saturday, February 18 and win out, they could climb as high as number four or five if the right teams lose, which would put them at least in the conversation for a No. 1 bid in the NCAA tournament — if they were from a better conference.

In the past 10 years, and historically, No. 1 seeds have come from power conferences. In the past 10 tournaments, only four of the 40 number one seeds have come from outside the six best conferences: the Big 10, Pac 10/12, Big East, ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

The four number ones outside of those six conferences? Cincinnati had a number one seed in 2002 and Memphis had number one seeds in 2006 and 2008 both coming out of Conference USA at the time. Saint Joseph's had the No. 1 seed in 2004 out of the Atlantic 10, but I think most fans would agree that Conference USA and the Atlantic 10 (along with Horizon League and West Coast Conference) are a step above such conferences as the American East, Atlantic Sun, Ivy League, or Murray State's home, the Ohio Valley Conference.

Murray State has always been a tournament favorite of mine, even though they have only won two NCAA tournament games in 14 tournament appearances. They still always seem to provide a show, keeping games close that absolutely should not be close.

Let's look at a few examples. In 1988, they got their first tournament win — doing so as a No. 14 seed — beating number three seed North Carolina State, 78-75. They lost their second game in that tournament to sixth-seeded Kansas 61-58. Not bad. Oh yeah, and Kansas went on to win the national championship that year.

In 1990, they came as close as any 16 seed ever has, taking No. 1 seed Michigan State into overtime, but eventually losing, 75-71.

In 1995, they lost to No. 2 seed North Carolina (who made the Final Four that season), 70-60. In 1997, they lost to No. 2 seed Duke, 71-68. In 2006 they lost to third-seeded North Carolina, 69-65.

And finally in 2010, they got their second win in tournament history, defeating fourth-seeded Vanderbilt, 66-65. They lost their second round matchup by 2 points to fifth-seeded Butler, who of course went on to lose in the national championship game.

The past 25 years has seen some pretty exciting stuff out of Murray State and this season, they are having their best season yet. In arguably their previous best season ever in 2010, a 30-4 record only got them a 13 seed. What will a 31-0 record get them in 2012?

Anything less than a three seed is an insult. But Murray State should be prepared to be insulted. Their current RPI is 48. Behind fellow mid-major tournament hopefuls Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Harvard, Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary's, Wichita State, and Creighton.
I'm not saying RPI is the end all, be all factor for tournament seeding, but it certainly is a factor and it is not looking good for Murray State in that regard.

But the real question is: how far can Murray State advance in the tournament?

Whether or not they go undefeated, they'll make the tournament. They could be anywhere from a two seed to a 12. I'll guess they end up with a six or seven seed. Can they make it past the second round? Yes.

If they draw a seven or 10 seed, they'll have a tough time making it to the second weekend. If they draw an eight or nine, they'll likely fail, but from seeds of two, three, four, five, six, 11 or 12, I think they'll make their first Sweet 16.

Despite complaints about their weak schedule, Murray State is still undefeated and nobody else can say that in all of Division I men's college basketball. I know, if they played in the ACC, they would not be undefeated.

Much like their counterparts in college football (mid-majors who have gone undefeated) Murray State can't do anything more than win their games. Boise State, Utah, and TCU created noise and controversy in college football by ending seasons undefeated. That noise over the period of a decade may hopefully lead to some sort of playoff system for college football in the near future.

In college basketball, Murray State could end the regular season undefeated, but they'd still have six games to prove themselves. Since that is the case, I honestly see no problem awarding them with a two or a three seed. It honestly would make things more interesting — not that the NCAA tournament needs things to be more interesting.

Look at it this way, if you give Murray State a two seed and the tournament moves forward with no upsets, they'll have to beat a 15 seed, a seven seed, a three seed, and three number one seeds to win the national championship. If they do that, they deserve to win it and I don't think anybody can argue with that.

If you give them a seven seed, again with no upsets, they'll have to beat a 10 seed, a two seed, a three seed, and three number ones — a tougher road, but all roads end the same: three number ones.

The NCAA tournament is setup to prevent teams that are seeded too high from advancing to the national championship game. And there is so little harm in seeding Murray State higher than their RPI might indicate.

Why do they deserve it? When is the last time an undefeated entered the NCAA tournament? It hasn't happened in 20 years! UNLV was the last team in 1991. Before that you'd have to go all the way back to 1979 where Larry Bird and Magic Johnson faced off as undefeated Indiana State lost to Michigan State in the championship game. Meanwhile, Alcorn State went undefeated in 1979 and wasn't even invited to the NCAA tournament.

So in more than 5,000 opportunities from 1992-2011, no Division I school went undefeated in men's college basketball and when one has the potential to do so, we're thinking they should be a … six seed?

Come on! I know they'd probably lose to Kentucky and Syracuse and Missouri, but come on! The Racers might accomplish something that is incredibly rare in today's college basketball environment. They should be rewarded; they must be rewarded.

I've changed my mind. If Murray State enters Selection Sunday undefeated, anything less than a one seed is an insult.

However, when I consider the whole landscape of the Association, there's one thing above all that I wonder ... could the Northwest Division actually be the best division in the league? Let's examine this from top to bottom.

Despite their relative youth, Oklahoma City has made positive strides beyond what a team this young should be showing. From losing a tough first-round series in 2010 to reaching the Conference Finals in 2011 to their status as Finals favorite now, the rise of the Thunder is about as high as the ball when Kevin Durant releases his shots. Russell Westbrook and James Harden keep piling up the buckets (third in points per game), while Kendrick Perkins (when he's not being posterized by Blake Griffin) helps form a nucleus that is learning to become more formidable on the defensive end.

Next, we get to the first of the "underwhelmers." When Carmelo Anthony left the Rockies for the Garden, we figured that Denver was getting some talent in return. But would they gel with the rest of the Nuggets' core. They affirmed it by finishing fifth in the West. Now they're answering the bell again.

Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith decided to play in China during the lockout (this week, Martin signed a short-term deal with the Clippers). This means that two of the team's most effective players haven't been on the court all season. However, Denver leads the league in offense (104.6 ppg). Gotta say one thing. George Karl's a hell of a coach.

In third, we may have the most underwhelming team in the NBA. Maybe it's because Deron Williams isn't in town anymore. Maybe it's because Jerry Sloan isn't patrolling the bench. Or maybe it's just us not paying attention. Utah was 10-5 before alternating back-to-back losses with back-to-back wins (assuming they beat the Knicks Monday night). When you look through the roster, there's not a lot of flash to hide your eyes from. But if coach Tyrone Corbin is anything like his former boss, that's just fine.

Portland has had its share of departures over the last few years, including the early retirement of all-star shooting guard Brandon Roy. But with all that the Trailblazers lost, they might have gained something more important ... health (well, except for Greg Oden). LaMarcus Aldridge has been one of the most durable players in the Association. It appears (knock on wood) that the team has multiple centers to plug into the paint. And coach Nate McMillan has the added services of Gerald Wallace to add athleticism and toughness. Going forward, though, you have to wonder who might run the show if Raymond Felton goes down.

Then we get to the Timberwolves. After hitting their head against the ceiling this season, they have finally reached .500. I live in the Twin Cities, and there's a buzz for the franchise that I haven't experienced in my five years here. Who knew that a pair of Ricks might be the key to a return to relevancy?

Rick Adelman is bringing his experience from Portland, Sacramento, and Houston (not going to count those two years in Oakland) to this young team. Ricky Rubio has brought flash and dash to the squad, possibly GM David Kahn's thirst for point guards. Together with Kevin Love, these three have created a dynamic trio that help make the Wolves one of the most watchable shows in the league.

Now that the players have been introduced, do they provide the best conglomeration? These five teams have fared well against the rest of the NBA. The only team with a losing record (limited as the sample size is) to the East would be Minnesota. The only team with a losing to the West is Denver. Does this mean the pace will keep up? Probably not. Does it mean that none of these teams will fade? I doubt it.

In the end, though, I'm just saying that I'll keep my eye to the North and West for the time being. There might be something cooking in that varied air.

The Giants won this game because their hands. Wide receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham caught practically everything Eli Manning threw their way, and most were difficult catches. Tight ends Jake Ballard and Bear Pascoe were also flawless. But the bigger plays were the fumble recoveries of Chris Snee and Henry Hynoski, who covered fumbles by Bradshaw and Nicks.

Defensively, the Giants recorded seven passes defended, including two by Jason Pierre-Paul, who knocked down two Tom Brady passes at the line of scrimmage. But the biggest play by a Giants defender was Chase Blackburn's interception of Brady's long pass to Rob Gronkowski.

On the other side, dropped passes by Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Aaron Hernandez helped the Giants cause, as well.

Did Ahmad Bradshaw breathe a big sigh of relief when the Patriots Hail Mary pass fell incomplete?

Yes. Pity poor Bradshaw. He became the first player in Super Bowl history to score a touchdown and feel bad about it.

Obviously, Bradshaw was surprised to see such an easy path through the Patriots defense, and he hesitated before falling backwards into the end zone. I've seen DeSean Jackson do it a lot better, however. Anyway, the score meant the Giants couldn't run the clock down and kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Were the Giants concerned of a short field goal attempt going awry? Maybe they were. But their pathetic attempt at converting the two-point conversion left them with a four-point lead, meaning the Pats only needed a touchdown to win, whereas a successful two-point conversion necessitated a Patriots score and an extra point for the win. If the Giants thought that Lawrence Tynes might miss a field goal from extra point distance, then they should have tried a little harder to convert the two-point attempt, and force the Pats to kick the extra point, which they possibly, but not likely, could have missed.

It just seems the Giants didn't consider the contingency of making New England convert the extra point to win the game.

Is Eli Manning now in Tom Brady's class?

Yes, Manning and Brady are in the same class, and in said class, Manning is the valedictorian.

Will the circumstances of the Giants' "12 men on the field" penalty result in a possible change in the rules. New York was penalized five yards, while the Patriots lost valuable time on their final drive.

The NFL will have to review this. The Giants may have unknowingly stumbled upon an effective strategy to combat the two-minute offense. Or maybe they knew what they were doing. Either way, it's a situation that needs addressing. A possible solution: give the offense the option of declining the penalty and having time put back on the clock.

What's with Wes Welker's mustache?

I'm not sure, but he needs to drop it.

NBC's Dan Patrick interviewed Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham after the Lombardi Trophy presentation. Was this the least-informative interview of the night?

Yes, it wasn't very informative, but it was a necessary interview. Obviously, Nicks and Manningham played pivotal roles in the game. They combined for 15 catches, and an equal number of utterances of the word "man" during the interview.

How was Madonna's halftime show?

I give it two thumbs up. That's three fingers up if you count M.I.A.'s middle one.

All controversy aside, Madonna's set was interesting for its pageantry, aesthetics, and choreography. Any spectacle featuring an afro'd tightrope performer in a toga and gold sneakers can't go wrong.

But did Madonna really need special guests to feel relevant? In addition to MIA, Madonna welcomed LMFAO, Nicki Minaj, and Cee Lo Green, a.k.a. the "Black Butterbean." She had fewer guests in her book "Sex." Besides, the average viewer probably couldn't tell the difference between a "special guest" and a routine performer.

Speaking of "going wrong," was M.I.A.'s middle finger that big of a deal?

It shouldn't be. Most viewers probably didn't even notice it. And if the did, they didn't care.

If the NFL tabbed M.I.A. to appear in the halftime show without expecting some form of controversy, then they obviously don't know who M.I.A. is. A middle finger by NFL standards may be controversial, but by M.I.A. standards, it's quite tame. This is the same politically-active and outspoken M.I.A. whose most famous song, "Paper Planes," features gunshots in the chorus, and the same MIA whose video/short film for "Born Free" involved genocidal death squads hunting down red-haired people.

M.I.A. claimed "adrenaline and nerves" caused her to raise her middle finger. Bull. It was premeditated. It would be unlike M.I.A. to appear at the Super Bowl and not do something controversial.

Was that Clint Eastwood narrating the Chrysler ad touting Detroit's revival?

Indeed, it was Eastwood, but Clint couldn't quite decide which character he was playing — Dirty Harry Callahan, or Walt Kowalski from Gran Torino.

But give Eastwood credit where credit is due for giving meaning and soul to the Chrysler ad. Let's face it. Eastwood could narrate nursery rhymes, or Nicholas Sparks' novels, and make them sound badass.

What was the lasting image from Super Bowl XLVI?

It's a tie between Tom Coughlin embracing Bill Belichick after the game, and Coughlin embracing Flava Flav after the game.

Tom Brady's wife, supermodel Gisele Bundchen, ripped the Patriots receiving corps for dropping too many balls. Does Brady need to have a talk with his wife about boundaries?

No, Brady doesn't need to have a talk with Bundchen, but Dwayne Johnson "The Rock" does, and he needs to tell her to "know her role and shut her mouth."

Ironically, people tell Brady all the time that the world's most famous supermodel was "quite a catch."

Aside from three or four pivotal catches, what were the Patriots lacking on Sunday?

What New England needed was a wide receiver who is a true deep threat. New England receivers make all their catches in front of defenders. They need a receiver who can get behind a defense. The current Pats offense can spread a defense, but can't stretch one.

What was the night's best commercial?

I'll give it to M&Ms for humor, creativity, and for flaunting the nudity angle in the NFL's face. I'll take a naked M&M any day over a naked Janet Jackson.

Will anyone drink Bud Light Platinum?

No, because judging by the effectiveness of Bud Light Platinum's ad campaign, potential consumers won't know it exists.

Did a platform-boot-wearing Elton John end up in a dungeon with Flava Flav?

Yes, and Sir Elton couldn't be happier. Flav, however, will find it necessary to "Fight the Power."

Can Audi's LED headlights really make vampires vanish?

I don't know, but if they can, then all new Audi owners should drive to the set of the filming of the new Twilight movie.

Has anyone ever watched a GoDaddy.com commercial, then actually visited their website to view the "unrated content?"

I doubt it. I don't know about you, but when I visit a website, I expect the content to be rated, preferably with a letter a far down the alphabet as possible. There's a name for a GoDaddy.com ad that runs during the Super Bowl: the "two-team teaser."

Who will meet in Super Bowl XLVII next year in New Orleans?

The Washington Redskins, led by Peyton Manning, take down the Houston Texans, 28-23.

Four years ago, I wrote that Super Bowl XLII was the best I had ever seen. This year's version in Indianapolis wasn't exactly a rematch — both rosters, New England's in particular, have been overhauled — and it wasn't as cleanly played, but it nearly matched the earlier game in fourth-quarter drama. The Giants delivered another game-winning fourth quarter touchdown drive, and the Tom Brady magic that always seemed to carry the Patriots in the early 2000s was nowhere to be found.

Why the Giants Won

The Patriot offense wasn't the same with Rob Gronkowski hobbled, and Eli Manning took what the Patriots gave him. During the regular season, Manning was a down-the-field bomber who led all full-time quarterbacks in yards per completion (13.7). The Patriots almost never blitzed, but they took away the deep pass, and the Giants didn't have a 20-yard pass play until Mario Manningham's sideline grab on the final drive of the game. Manning averaged just 9.9 yards per completion, but forced to string third-down conversions together and slowly march down the field, that's just what the Giants did.

You don't want to deflect credit after the Giants played so well, but it's tough to imagine this game going the same way if Gronkowski had been healthy. All season, Gronk was the most dynamic tight end in the NFL, really a unique challenge to defenders. He had 8 catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 9, and the Giants were prepared to devote double-coverage to him. But Gronkowski was severely limited by an ankle injury sustained in the AFC Championship Game, and after the first two quarters he wasn't even an effective decoy.

New England lost its best player outside of Tom Brady and had to radically re-work the offense without a multi-dimensional standout like Gronkowski, while the injury took considerable heat off the Giants' defense, which largely contained Brady and the Patriots even without a strong performance by their much-hyped pass rush. The Giants very seldom changed their defensive personnel, especially during the first half, using a nickel defense on nearly every play. The Giants lost a couple tight ends of their own during the game, but there's no comparison between Travis Beckum or Jake Ballard and a game-changer like Rob Gronkowski.

Noteworthy

When football video games were a big part of my life, I used to turn off fumbles. They were so random, being good at the game just didn't matter when the ball was loose. The Giants fumbled three times in Sunday's game, and the scoreboard might have looked a lot different if that oblong ball had bounced a little differently. The Patriots actually recovered the first fumble, but it was nullified by a 12-men-on-the-field penalty. The next two were loose, but both times New York got the right bounce. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and in Super Bowl XLVI, the Giants were both.

You don't usually hear much about the Super Bowl punters, but what a game from the Giants' Steve Weatherford. Three times he pinned the Patriots inside their own 10-yard line, including a beauty out of bounds at the four, and the first punt of the game, setting up a safety. If that's a touchback, or a fair catch at the 12, I'm not sure the Giants still win. The Patriots deliberately allowed a touchdown in the fourth quarter rather than letting the Giants run the clock out, but without the safety, the score is 17-13 and New York needs a TD. Maybe they get it and win anyway, but maybe they don't. Huge game from Weatherford.

What Happened

For all the strategic chops of Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick, the beginning of the game looked like something you might have seen decades ago. The Giants came out in I-formation, sometimes two tight ends, and balanced the run and the pass. The Patriots used a 4-3 defense with very little blitzing and tried to keep everything underneath. The Giants' six-minute drive stalled after a pair of sacks, and Weatherford's punt pinned the Pats at their own six, setting up the safety when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding in the end zone.

Following a nine-play touchdown drive, the Giants led 9-0, with an incredible edge in time of possession: 11:28 - 0:08. That evened out a little after New England got the ball back, and the Pats got the first possession of the second half, but the Giants ended the night with a 15-minute advantage in time of possession, grinding out their drives while Brady sat on the sideline.

The game appeared to turn just before halftime, shortly after another great play by Weatherford and the Giants' coverage team pinned the Patriots at their 4-yard line. A false start penalty pushed the Pats back to their own 2, but Brady then completed 10 consecutive passes and drove New England 98 yards for a touchdown, giving the Patriots a 10-9 halftime lead, with the ball coming to them to start the second half.

Another touchdown made it 17-9, and all of a sudden it felt like New England might run away with this thing. Even when New York field goals made it 17-12 and 17-15, it still felt like the Patriots were in control. Just when some drama started to creep back in, Danny Woodhead gained 19 yards on a crucial third down, and Brady started marching them down the field, picking up first downs and running out the clock. With under 5:00 to play, the Patriots had a two-point lead and a first down in Giant territory. It looked like they would burn the clock and score, leaving the Giants in a terrible hole.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis was stuffed on a run, but that's another :40. On second down, the dagger. Wes Welker was open downfield — another first down, time off the clock, ball in scoring position. Except Welker dropped the pass. It's was a tough catch, one you expect him to make, but hardly an easy play. To me, that felt like a turning point. Rather than sinking the Giants, it gave them hope, and it gave the Patriots serious doubt. It also stopped the clock at 4:06. Another incompletion forced the Patriots to punt, and the Giants took over with 3:53 and a timeout, plus the two-minute warning.

Immediately, Eli Manning hit Mario Manningham on the sideline for a tip-toe catch so close it merited the game's only replay review. Manningham's 38-yard gain was the biggest play of the game by either team. The Giants calmly drove downfield, never even faced a third down, much less fourth, and scored the winning touchdown when it became clear they would otherwise run out the clock and kick a chip-shot field goal. Ahmad Bradshaw tried to stall his momentum and fall outside the goal line, but he instead literally sat into the end zone. A two-point conversion failed, so the Giants led 21-17.

New England got the ball back at their own 20 with :57 remaining, but ran out of time. Belichick's clock management on New York's final drive was really puzzling. What was he saving his timeouts for? It's nice to have them available for your own drive on offense, but that's a luxury. You can't just watch your opponent burn :39 between plays with the Super Bowl on the line.

What Happened to the Patriot Dynasty?

New England's roster is more talented now than it was in 2003 or 2004, and it's much more talented than in 2001, but those Patriot teams won the Super Bowls that have eluded Bill Belichick and his squad for the past eight seasons. The most obvious scapegoat involves the old adage that "defense wins championships." The Pats are now an offense-first team, and it's not a conservative, grind-it-out offense. It's a light up the scoreboard, close the gates of mercy offense.

Maybe there's something to that, but I think it also has a lot to do with the makeup of the team. The 2007 Patriots were very old, especially on defense, and they seemed worn down by the end of the season. The 2011 Patriots are young at many positions, especially on defense, and they frankly don't seem as smart as the Super Bowl teams of the last decade. Those groups compensated for lesser talent with superior strategy and by never beating themselves. This year's Pats dropped passes, didn't wrap up on tackles, ran out of position, and forced throws.

The apparent mental lapses from Brady are most puzzling of all. He's unquestionably a brilliant quarterback, one of the greatest in history and still one of the best in the game today. But he makes mistakes I don't remember ever seeing in his first few seasons, and he seems to make them most often when the stakes are high: big games, critical moments. The announcers blamed his fourth-quarter interception on Gronkowski's ankle, but it was a very poor throw from Brady. A decade ago, that's a ball he would have thrown away. On Sunday, he lofted it down the field, 10 yards behind his receiver, and made it a jump ball with his man out of position to make the catch. And how do you explain the intentional grounding for a safety?

Maybe when he was younger, Brady simply didn't know what he couldn't do. Maybe now he's older and more cynical and recognizes just how hard it is to create the magic he won with in the early 2000s. Maybe he has more faith in his abilities now and tries to force throws that really aren't there. Maybe he has less faith in his defense and feels like he needs to create something out of nothing. Maybe he's just had a few rough games and we're making something out of nothing. But 5-10 years ago, Belichick's Patriots were the ultimate overachievers, thriving on their underdog status and winning against the odds. The last few years, they've repeatedly disappointed in the postseason. I'd like to see the team try to get back to the formula it was so successful with in '03 and '04.

Eli Manning, MVP

Eli was a good choice for Most Valuable Player, probably the same guy I would've picked if I had a vote. But let's not forget about the Giants' defense, which held New England to a season-low 17 points. After the conference championship games, I predicted a 27-20 Giants victory, then spent two weeks doubting the forecast. Did I really predict the Patriots, who averaged 32.1 points during the regular season, would only put up 20 against a Giants defense that allowed 25.0 and ranked in the bottom quarter of the league? No one superstar emerged to deny Manning the MVP, but the Giants' defense outplayed their offense.

Unfortunately, in today's sports world we turn almost immediately from enjoying the moment to the bigger picture, and already some people are now comparing Eli to Peyton Manning. There's no comparison. Eli Manning has played very well in the two most important games of his career, but you don't judge a player by two games. Peyton was one of the two best quarterbacks in the game for over a decade. Let Eli be what he is and enjoy what he's accomplished, but let's stay in the realm of reality here.

In addition to the Super Bowl MVP Award, Aaron Rodgers was announced Sunday as the runaway winner of the league MVP Award, with San Francisco's John Harbaugh taking Coach of the Year. The most puzzling selection was Denver LB Von Miller as Defensive Rookie of the Year. He had a nice season, but I'm unclear as to what the voters felt put him ahead of Aldon Smith and Ryan Kerrigan. The NFL also announced before the game that Baltimore Ravens center Matt Birk won this year's Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. This primarily honors off-field contributions, and it's a very high form of recognition.

Announcers, Entertainment and Commercials

NBC's announcing team of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth had their moments, but overall, I thought they performed below their usual standard, from Michaels repeatedly misidentifying Julian Edelman as Danny Woodhead to Collinsworth criticizing the Giants for keeping Chase Blackburn on the field literally seconds before he made an important tackle. Maybe Al and Cris just let the pressure of the big game get to them. I loved NBC's camera shot of the New England bench when Wes Welker dropped a potentially game-clinching pass with 4:00 left in the game.

Madonna's halftime show was okay. Her fans probably enjoyed it, some of the choreography was interesting, and I'm always happy to see M.I.A. — who apparently flashed a middle finger at some point, which I didn't notice — but I would have loved to see what Madonna might have done with this kind of platform 10 or 20 years ago. The performance got better the longer it went on, though it did seem to go on rather a long time. I wish they would scale back the elaborate sets for the Super Bowl entertainment so the players can have something more closely resembling a normal game experience. The crew did a great job getting the set on and off the field quickly, considering what they were working with. I'd just like to see them working with a little less so it doesn't take 10 minutes to get done.

The Super Bowl advertisements featured a couple of commercials promoting good causes rather than beer or cars, and one of them related to the game in an engaging way. The ad by Mayors Against Illegal Guns might actually have been my favorite of all Super Bowl commercials this year. Michael Bloomberg and Tom Menino showed off nice presence and delivery, the rivalry between them felt real, and I'm a sucker for football tie-ins. Alternatively, I also enjoyed the Ferris Bueller tribute.

At some point in the future, I'd like to see more Super Bowl ads that look like America. We've really moved beyond getting a token black dude into the ad. Let's start getting token Asians and Latins in there, too! The country isn't 90% white, and it speaks poorly of advertisers that so many of them think that's what the country wants to see from the most-watched telecast of the year.

Hall of Fame

The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the Class of 2012 on Saturday: Jack Butler, Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin, and Willie Roaf. This was an interesting year, with no real locks and no first-year eligible candidates selected. All in all, it's a strong class. Dawson was the best center of the '90s, Kennedy was an eight-time Pro Bowler and the 1992 Defensive Player of the Year, and Roaf was a standout for both the Saints and Chiefs, part of one the strongest offenses in recent history with the latter. Chris Doleman was almost an exact contemporary of both Reggie White and Bruce Smith, which I suspect is why he hasn't been enshrined before this, but he was one of the greatest pass rushers ever.

Butler, a Senior Candidate, was first-team All-Pro in three seasons. He is one of only four players with three seasons of nine or more interceptions, gained over 100 INT return yards four times, and twice tied for the NFL lead in interception return touchdowns. Butler was also the subject of one of the all-time great sports descriptions, from Pittsburgh writer Pat Livingston, who described Butler as having "the face of a choirboy and the heart of an arsonist."

With the voters choosing four linemen and a defensive back who's been retired for more than 50 years, Martin is the player best-known to most fans. He's a fine choice, comparable in my mind to Tony Dorsett, who retired as the second-leading rusher in history. Martin is fourth all-time, but he has more "all time" to deal with, especially since Dorsett was among the first RBs to play 16-game seasons. Dorsett probably was never the best running back in the NFL, being overshadowed by Walter Payton, Earl Campbell, and Eric Dickerson. Martin played at the same time as Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander.

But both Dorsett and Martin were consistently among the best at their position, and did a great deal to help their teams. That kind of decade-long consistency is almost impossible to find at a brutal position like running back, where standout players in their 30s are a rarity. Martin isn't Jim Brown or Payton or Sanders, but he's a fine addition to Canton's Hall of Fame.

The big story, I suppose, is the continued failure of standout wide receivers like Tim Brown, Cris Carter, and Andre Reed in the HOF balloting. I'll address this in depth as we enter the offseason, beginning next week with a review of the finest Hall-eligible wide receivers of the 1990s, including Brown, Carter, and Jimmy Smith.

Then they get swept out of the first round by a much higher seed, much more talented team that exposes everything the Knicks still can't do right, but at least it's something to build on for next year. Then they start the next year flat as a week-old soda and never get back to the playoffs. The superstar eventually gets criticized for his selfish play and run out of town several years later after never leading the team to anything significant.

Sound familiar, Knicks fans? Yes, much of what has been happening with Carmelo Anthony has already happened with exiled Knicks guard Stephon Marbury, who arrived in 2004 with much excitement and hope attached to him, as well. When Carmelo Anthony arrived here, many of us may have lost sight that he was the consolation prize after losing the LeBron James sweepstakes. Yet Anthony's arrival seemed to bring the whole city crashing down in not just anticipation, but celebration. Before he had accomplished anything tangible, Knicks fans around New York were already crying out "thank you for making the Knicks relevant again!" while Skyler Gray's poignant chorus of "I'm Coming Home" poured into every Knicks TV commercial and made some eyes water.

New York bought into the hype. Again. Hook, line, and sinker. Nobody wanted to admit or point out how the Knicks struggled to play .500 ball after the Anthony trade, or how well Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and company were playing in Denver. After all if you want to make an omelet in the NBA, sometimes you need to trade all your good young talent.

And here we are a third of the way through an abbreviated season that actually is a sprint rather than a marathon as opposed to the old saying, and the Knicks have stumbled out of the blocks, and look winded trying to catch up. They are an 8-14 team that appears for all intents and purposes, lost at sea. They appear to lack the proper leadership from their coach as well as their point guard position, and who knows if that would solve lingering issues this year with 'Melo anyway?

The comparisons to the Marbury scenario eight years ago does not mean I have this team buried for dead and the Anthony era already considered a bust in my mind (only half true, I do have this 2012 team buried for dead), it merely serves as an ominous warning of what could be. The Knicks carelessly released Chauncey Billups in the hopes of acquiring star point guard Chris Paul or assuming that backup Toney Douglas was ready to take the reins after solid play off the bench in '11. Then the team came to the not-so-stunning realization that Douglas is a scorer, not a point guard. Acquisition Mike Bibby has not been able to make any significant contributions and Baron Davis has not been healthy enough to make an impact, either.

For now, the starting spot is being placed in the untested hands of rookie Iman Shumpert, who was booed by disappointed Knicks fans when his name was announced at last year's draft. In the meantime, any hope the Knicks may have had in acquiring Paul down the road seems to have faded as Paul appears quite content to throw up lobs for Blake Griffin and Co. all day in L.A.

After winning four straight games early in the new year, their longest winning streak, the Knicks followed that with six consecutive losses and 10 in their last 12. Curiously, the two lone wins in that stretch were by totals of 33 points, and 27 points, respectively. This tells us that when the Knicks do put forth the effort and put it all together, they can be devastating and lethal (or it just tells us how awful the Pistons and Bobcats really are this year), yet they have been unable to tap into that consistently.

While coach Mike D'Antoni had taken criticism for lacking a defensive mentality, that never stopped his Phoenix teams from racking up great regular season win totals. This proves his system does work at the pro level at least prior to the playoffs. And yet it does not seem to be gelling in New York. This coaching change that needed to happen in last year's offseason cannot happen soon enough. The question is who will be the long-term fix. Or more to the point, can they lure former Knick Phil Jackson out of retirement for the long-term fix? The man who loves to coach superstars and great talent would surely earn the respect of every player in the locker room. After all, he has more title rings than Bill Russell.

Another factor to separate this team from the Marbury era is that these Knicks were founded with Amare Stoudemire, along with Anthony. While both of them struggle defensively, it is still a team built around two stars, not one. With the acquisition of Tyson Chandler a solid one at center, that essentially leaves only the backcourt and the bench that needs improvement.

So while the Knicks remain potentially the same mess they have been for many years now, there appear to be short, simple ways to fix them. The question is whether their front office, now without Donnie Walsh there, will be able to make the proper judgments and the smart moves to fix their glaring weaknesses. While it appears they should have been able to win on paper going into this year, a culture of losing does not die easily.

NY Giants vs. New England (-3)

Super Bowl XLVI pits the Giants against the Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, in which Eli Manning and the G-Men stunned Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots, 17-14. This time, Brady again faces Eli Manning's team, but on Peyton Manning's turf, Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the finest luxury suite attendants in the NFL, the "Personal Lubricants."

"Paul Revere made the biggest announcement in Patriots history," Brady said, "when he rode his horse through the streets shouting, 'The British are coming! The British are coming!' That is, until Billy Cundiff mounted a goat and traveled the streets of Indy yelling, 'The Patriots are coming! The Patriots are coming!' Cundiff is an albatross on a team of Ravens. He hooked that fateful kick so bad, it ended up in New Hampshire.

"But this Super Bowl isn't about errant kickers. It's about me and Eli. Eli's one-upped me. That's something Peyton can't say. Sure, Peyton is sport's greatest pitchman. He stars in commercials like I do in Super Bowls.

"Peyton didn't monopolize all the football talent among his siblings, just the personality. Eli may have bested me in Super Bowl XLII, but this time, I'll have the last laugh. How can I be so sure? Because I'm employing the 'Ben Roethlisberger Method of Self-Affirmation': I'm locking myself in a bathroom, looking in the mirror, and repeating to myself, 'I will not be denied. I will not be denied.' If history is any indication, I can't lose."

The Giants stormed through the playoffs, knocking off the No. 1-seeded Packers before eliminating the No. 2-seeded 49ers 20-17 in overtime in the NFC championship game.

"There's only one team left that can beat us," Eli Manning said. It's not the Patriots. It's us. How do I know? We've done it seven times already this year.

"With a win, I'll have two Super Bowl wins, both over Tom Brady and the Patriots. Who says I'm not in a class with Brady, besides everyone but me? Most people say the only way I can be in the same class with Brady is if he's teaching it. I'll dispel that notion by winning on Sunday. Or by marrying a supermodel on Monday.

"Surprisingly, Brady and I are afterthoughts to the real quarterback news around the league. No, I'm not talking about Peyton's future as a Colt. It's Tim Tebow. I understand Tebow is still in the news. It appears that Kim Kardashian wants a relationship with the Denver quarterback. Amazingly, they have much in common. Tebow is saving himself for marriage. Kardashian saved herself from marriage. Neither has had sex with Kris Humpries. Both Tebow and Kardashian are fond of the same New Testament book: Peter's. Tebow spreads the word. Kardashian spreads. Everyone, me included, wants to know what happens when the 'Holy Trinity' meets the 'Hole-y Trinity.'"

Super Bowl festivities begin when Kelly Clarkson belts out a rousing and moving rendition of "The Star Spangled Banner" that renders an appreciative crowd hopeful and optimistic. That is, hopeful and optimistic that Jimi Hendrix is not dead, and the NFL will contract with him to perform the anthem on his guitar in all future Super Bowls.

Sufficiently fired up, the Giants win the coin toss and defer, giving the Patriots the ball first, with the intent of unleashing their front four on Brady. Everyone knows the key to the Giants success is pressuring Brady with four rushers, thus dropping seven defenders in coverage, which should be plenty to blanket the underneath routes for which the Pats are famous.

But New England has a counter, and that's the deep ball, and Brady connects with Aaron Hernandez for a long gain that sets up a Stephen Gostkowski field goal. It's 3-0 Patriots.

The G-Men come back with a solid drive of their own, as Manning hooks up with Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, as two receivers from the wrong side of the tracks find themselves on the right side of midfield. A shovel pass to Ahmad Bradshaw gives the Giants a 7-3 lead.

It's nip and tuck until halftime, and the Giants take a 17-13 lead into the break.

The Super Bowl halftime show begins with Madonna emerging from a giant football at midfield, where she appears lying on a bed in a Tebow jersey. Fittingly, she starts a medley of her hits with "Like a Virgin" as she writhes provocatively on the sheets.

Then she dons a No. 1 Colts jersey and delights the hometown fans with "Luck-y Star," then audibles into "Justify My Love" while ripping off her top to reveal a Peyton Manning jersey featuring the number "?"

Madonna then salutes conference championship patsies Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams with a touching version of her 1986 hit "Live to Tell."

Then, in her tribute to "official review," Madonna flashes a team of dancers dressed as NFL referees, leading into the song, "Don't Cry For Me, Mike Pereira."

Nikki Minaj joins Madonna onstage for the finale, wearing the "torpedo" brassiere Madonna made famous. The duo test the bounds of censorship when Madonna yanks the laces on Minaj's top, but instead of an R-rated image, the brassiere fires a series of jet-propelled Super Bowl XLVI t-shirts, one of which amazingly strikes a fan wearing a former Cleveland Browns offensive lineman Orlando Brown's No. 77 jersey in the eye.

The Giants take the second-half kickoff and cash in with a Lawrence Tynes field goal. The teams trade field goals, and with time dwindling in the fourth quarter, Brady engineers a 75-yard touchdown drive that ties the game at 23 with a 13-yard pass to Rob Gronkowski.

Unfortunately, New England leaves Manning and the Giants just enough time to maneuver into field goal range, buoyed by Manning's 11-yard scramble on third and long. Tynes drills the 29-yard kick for the win.

New York wins, 26-23.

The most important note is that I've restricted this to seasons 1950 and later. That eliminates some of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons of all time, but when I drew up my initial list, it was dominated by Benny Friedman (1927), Sammy Baugh (1937), Bob Waterfield (1945), Otto Graham (1946), Charlie Conerly (1948), and arguably several others who were just playing in a much different league, and sometimes a substantially different role on the team.

Friedman was immediately the best passer in the NFL, leading all players in passing TDs and winning first-team All-Pro honors. Baugh, Waterfield, and Graham all won league championships as rookies. All of them are in the Hall of Fame, incidentally. Conerly's rookie record for passing TDs stood for 25 years. Those are great seasons, but I don't know how you compare Friedman to Dan Marino or Waterfield to Andy Dalton.

The list also is limited to "true" rookies, not players coming over from other major professional leagues. Most notably, this means that Jim Kelly (1986) is not on the list. The other note is a little trickier, so again, feel free to skip ahead ... the salary structure of the NFL has dramatically changed the way rookies, and highly-drafted rookie quarterbacks in particular, are used. In ages past, they would learn behind a veteran, often play sparingly or not at all their first few years. Today, if you draft a guy number one and pay him $100 million dollars, you want to start capitalizing on your investment immediately. You also need to find out whether or not the guy can play by the time his contract is up; in the free agency era, you can't just hold onto him until you're ready.

So more and more high school prospects are choosing pro-style college offenses, more rookie QBs are playing right away (or almost right away), and a lot of rookie records have been broken in the past decade or so. Does that mean our list should lean heavily towards recent drafts? Playing 12 games and playing 16 aren't the same thing, and it's easy for the list to reflect that. On the other hand, if this is supposed to be a list of the best rookie quarterbacks ever, do we really want a top-10 that is mostly guys who are still playing? I've tried to balance that, concentrating on what players do with the opportunities available, but giving weight to extra playing time. On a related note, postseason accomplishments are considered, but not definitive. I don't want to punish anyone for being drafted by the wrong team, or unduly reward those who got to play on teams that were already good.

Thanks for your patience — let's get to the list. Starting with a few honorable mentions, mostly recent guys:

Eddie LeBaron, 1952 — 1,420 yards, 14 TD, 65.7 rating. Fourth in NFL in passing yards, tied for third in TD/INT differential.

Johnny Unitas, 1956 — 1,498 yards, 9 TD, 74.0 rating. Only one other quarterback finished the season with more yards and a better passer rating.

Jim McMahon, 1982 — 1,501 yards, 9 TD, 79.9 rating. Started seven games in a strike-shortened season and ranked 8th in the NFL in passer rating.

Warren Moon, 1984 — 3,338 yards, 12 TD, 76.9 rating. A rookie in name only, Moon was 27 when he moved to the Oilers after winning five Grey Cups in seven seasons with the CFL's Edmonton Eskimos.

Dieter Brock, 1985 — 2,658 yards, 16 TD, 82.0 rating. Even older than Moon (34) and also a veteran of the CFL, Brock ranked 3rd in the NFL in passer rating and led the Rams to the NFC Championship Game.

Peyton Manning, 1998 — 3,739 yards, 26 TD, 71.2 rating. Started all 16 games and broke rookie records for passing yards and TDs, but also led the NFL in interceptions (28).

Marc Bulger, 2002 — 1,826 yards, 14 TD, 101.5 rating. Dan Marino and Bulger are the only rookie QBs in history to throw twice as many touchdowns as interceptions in at least 100 attempts.

Joe Flacco, 2008 — 2,971 yards, 14 TD, 80.3 rating. Ranked 20th in passing yards and 22nd in rating, but led the Ravens to two playoff wins and the AFC Championship Game.

The top 10 rookie quarterbacks of all-time:

10. Charlie Batch, 1998 Detroit Lions
2,178 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT, 83.5 rating

Peyton Manning got the glory. Manning was the top overall pick in the draft, he started every game, and he threw a ton. Batch, playing with Barry Sanders on a team that had made the playoffs the year before, didn't have to air it out on every down, so his gross numbers fell far short of Manning's. As a product of I-AA Eastern Michigan, Batch generated almost no publicity compared to Manning, who was a star at Tennessee and the son of a Pro Bowl quarterback.

But while Manning threw the most interceptions in the league, Batch recorded the highest rookie passer rating in 15 years (Dan Marino) and set a rookie record for interception percentage (1.98%) that still stands. The first touchdown of Batch's career was a 98-yard score to Johnnie Morton in Week 5. The Lions went 5-11 that season, but they were 5-7 with Batch as starter, and 0-4 without him.

9. Jim Plunkett, 1971 New England Patriots
2,158 passing yards, 19 TD, 16 INT, 68.6 rating

Plunkett's tenure in New England was generally a disappointment, but his rookie season showed great promise. Plunkett ranked 12th in the NFL in passer rating, 10th in passing yards, and tied for 2nd in passing TDs. His TD/INT differential (+3) tied for 4th-best in the league, behind only Roger Staubach, Bob Griese, and Roman Gabriel. Plunkett also rushed for 210 yards, with a 4.7 average, and the Patriots improved from 2-12 to 6-10. Plunkett was a consensus choice for AFC Rookie of the Year.

For years, that rookie season looked to be the lone bright point in a disappointing career. It was his best passer rating until 1980, his first Super Bowl year with the Raiders. It was a career-high for passing TDs until 1983, the second Super Bowl. It was his best TD/INT differential until 1986, Plunkett's final season in the NFL. The four-game improvement in the standings also represented the biggest season-to-season turnaround for any team in Plunkett's career (not including the 1982 strike season). Coming out of Stanford as the top overall pick in the draft, Plunkett seemed to feed on confidence. He played well early, realized he wasn't a miracle-worker, and re-surfaced as an effective player with the Raiders, where he didn't have to be a savior. But for one year, Plunkett played like he was going to be a big, big star.

8. Marlin Briscoe, 1968 Denver Broncos
1,589 passing yards, 14 TD, 13 INT, 62.9 rating

The first African-American starting quarterback in NFL or AFL history, Briscoe played valiantly for an awful team. The Broncos had gone 3-11 the year before, and the team's other QBs went 3-6 in 1968. Briscoe's 2-3 record as starter was never going to drive Denver to the playoffs, but he gave the team hope, and brought different options to the table in a way not entirely dissimilar from Tim Tebow almost half a century later.

Briscoe was a natural athlete, nicknamed Marlin the Magician, and his legendary rookie season was the product of a unique skill set. He gained 308 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing, both good for 2nd-best on the team, and led the AFL in yards per completion (17.1). After his rookie season, Briscoe switched to wide receiver, including back-to-back years for the 1972-73 world champion Dolphins. As of 2012, the Broncos' rookie record for TD passes is still held not by John Elway or Jay Cutler, but by Marlin Briscoe.

7. Andy Dalton, 2011 Cincinnati Bengals
3,398 passing yards, 20 TD, 13 INT, 80.4 rating

In 2010, the Bengals went 4-12. In the offseason, they parted ways with Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, and improbably, the team more than doubled its win total, going 9-7 and making the playoffs for only the third time in the last 20 years.

Dalton became one of only seven rookie QBs to pass for 3,000 yards and one of only eight with 20 or more touchdowns. The only players to do both are Dalton, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, and Jim Kelly (if he counts as a rookie in 1986). Dalton's +7 TD/INT differential is the third-best ever for a rookie, trailing only Dan Marino (+14) and Marc Bulger (+8). But Marino took over a team that had played in the Super Bowl the year before, and Bulger played for the Greatest Show on Turf Rams, with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk. Rookie WR A.J. Green had a great season, but Dalton did this without a lot of weapons.

6. Joe Namath, 1965 New York Jets
2,220 passing yards, 18 TD, 15 INT, 68.7 rating

The AFL Rookie of the year in 1965, Namath immediately justified the hype coming out of college. The bidding for Namath by both leagues was so fierce that it is often cited as a driving factor in the common draft that began in 1967. Bear Bryant called Namath the greatest athlete he ever coached, and Broadway Joe was an immediate standout both on and off the field when he came to the pros. The Jets' home attendance increased by more than 12,000 per game when they drafted Namath.

As a rookie, Namath ranked 3rd in the AFL in passer rating, behind only Len Dawson and John Hadl, and he connected immediately with star receiver Don Maynard. In '65, Maynard posted by far his highest reception and yardage totals in the last five years, and set a career high for TD receptions (14), tying a Jets record that still stands. Namath's stats never told the full story of his greatness, though. Even coming off knee surgery as a result of an injury at Alabama, Namath's ability to dominate as a professional was never in question, and his stunningly quick release in particular remains legendary. He was the first rookie quarterback ever selected to the league All-Star game, in the AFL or NFL.

5. Matt Ryan, 2008 Atlanta Falcons
3,440 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT, 87.7 rating

Much like Dalton three years later, Ryan was instrumental in turning around a woebegone franchise. As a quick aside, I've been a sportswriter for 10 years, and that's the first time I've ever used the word woebegone. It might be the last. Anyway, Ryan finished his rookie season with the 4th-highest passer rating, 2nd-highest completion percentage, and 2nd-most passing yards ever by a rookie. He's 4th now in yardage, but even with all the great numbers put up by Newton and Dalton in 2011, neither matched Ryan's efficiency. Also, a stat few people notice, Ryan took only 17 sacks all season, which is fantastic.

The 2007 Falcons went 4-12 and were outscored 414-259. In '08, Ryan helped the Falcons to an 11-5 record and their first playoff berth since 2004. The team scored 391 points, a 50% increase over the previous season. The first pass of Ryan's career was a 62-yard touchdown to Michael Jenkins, and he went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, beating out another 16-game starter at QB (Joe Flacco), three 1,000-yard rushers (Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton), an electrifying receiver and return man (DeSean Jackson), and two Pro Bowl offensive linemen (Jake Long and Ryan Clady).

4. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers
2,621 passing yards, 17 TD, 11 INT, 98.1 rating

The first quarterback in 34 seasons to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Roethlisberger broke the rookie record for passer rating and went 13-0 as a starter in the regular season, leading Pittsburgh to a 15-1 record and an appearance in the AFC Championship Game. Big Ben doesn't rank at the top of the list because his role in the offense was somewhat limited. The 2004 Steelers had the league's best defense, a good offensive line, and a powerful running game. Roethlisberger didn't have to be the savior, and that's unusual for rookie quarterbacks. Good teams don't usually play rookies — they have an established starter. Rookies play out of desperation.

Roethlisberger made the most of his opportunities. No one will put Ben's rookie highlights on the same reel with Joe Namath's, but the Miami University product played smart, tough, efficient football, and delivered exactly what his team needed. Even in an era where passing records are being broken right and left, Roethlisberger's rookie record for passer rating could last for a very long time. He also holds the rookie record for completion percentage (66.4%).

3. Dan Marino, 1983 Miami Dolphins
2,210 passing yards, 20 TD, 6 INT, 96.0 rating

For years, Marino's 1983 season has been the gold standard for all rookie QBs, and I'm sure some fans will think I'm crazy for not ranking him best of all. Honestly, he might be — sorting out the top three was a nightmare. How do you rank anybody ahead of Dan Marino? This is particularly painful, because Marino was my favorite player in the '80s. You want him number one, you'll get no argument from me.

It seemed like Marino broke every efficiency record for rookie quarterbacks. He set the record for completion percentage, shattered the record for passer rating, and somehow finished with twice as many TD passes (20) as sacks (10). I'm calling it right now: that will never be matched. In 2011, no quarterback had twice as many TDs as sacks, much less a rookie. Cam Newton and Andy Dalton combined for 41 TD passes and 59 sacks. And that's not bad! Marino was just other-worldly, right from the start. He was the first rookie quarterback to make a Pro Bowl.

So why isn't he number one? Because he only started nine games. The Dolphins were AFC Champions in 1982, and rookies play out of desperation. The Dolphins weren't desperate, they were great. Why risk screwing anything up with a rookie quarterback, no matter how promising? But when Marino got to play, he never looked back. This doesn't affect the rankings, but Marino also had by far the greatest sophomore season of any QB in NFL history, obliterating the NFL records for passing yards and passing TDs, with a 108.9 rating that nearly broke that record, as well. He was as good as any passer in the league from the first day he set foot on the field.

2. Cam Newton, 2011 Carolina Panthers
4,051 passing yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 84.5 rating

Newton's passing statistics in 2011 were good. He was top-10 in passing yardage, breaking Peyton Manning's rookie record by nearly 300 yards. And yet, Newton's passing stats don't nearly communicate his contributions, because he also turned in probably the finest rushing season ever by a rookie quarterback: 706 yards, 5.6 average, 14 touchdowns. Newton's 35 total TDs put him in another stratosphere. No other rookie QB has even approached that.

The 2010 Carolina Panthers had one of the worst offenses of all time. They ranked last in the NFL in yards, yards per play, passer rating, almost everything. In particular, they ranked last by a huge margin in passing yardage (2,289), more than 600 yards behind 31st place — the league-leading Colts actually doubled Carolina's passing yardage. The Panthers scored just 196 points, 75 behind 31st place, and eight NFL teams scored more than twice as many. They are one of only about a dozen teams to score under 200 points in a 16-game season.

The 2011 Panthers, with Newton, ranked 7th in yards and 5th in scoring (406). I'm not aware that any other team has ever doubled its point total from one season to the next (without extending the schedule). The difference was Cam Newton. With both his arm and his legs, he totally turned around the most moribund offense in the league. It's an astonishing accomplishment, and one of the very finest rookie performances ever.

1. Greg Cook, 1969 Cincinnati Bengals
1,854 passing yards, 15 TD, 11 INT, 88.3 rating

Cook's rookie season is the stuff of legend. Dr. Z's 2001 story on Cook, written nearly three decades after an undiagnosed shoulder injury ended the QB's career, is one of the finest pieces of football journalism you're ever likely to read. Seriously, take five or 10 minutes. It's worth it.

Cook lit up the league in '69. The Bengals, just one year removed from expansion, started 3-0. Cook threw six TDs and ran for another, with only three picks. His passer rating was 111.1. But in that third game, Cook tore his rotator cuff. He felt the shoulder pop, and missed a total of three games, but the torn rotator cuff was never diagnosed, and he continued to play. Cook led the AFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating. He and Kurt Warner are the only players in history to lead the league in both completion percentage and yards per completion — and Cook did this as a rookie, with a receiving corps led by the tight ends. Cook, playing only 11 games, beat out O.J. Simpson and Carl Garrett to win AFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Cook's 88.3 passer rating was the record until Marino broke it 14 years later, with a good team and very different passing rules. Cook's rookie record for yards per attempt (9.41) may never be broken.

***

I suspect we'll see more and more great rookie QBs in the future, with more and more rule changes favoring passers, more pro-style college offenses preparing rookies to play right away, and ever-increasing pressure for young players to hit the field early. I just hope Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III don't force me to re-write this project next year. The top 10 rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, 1950-2011:

1. Greg Cook, 1969 Cincinnati Bengals
2. Cam Newton, 2011 Carolina Panthers
3. Dan Marino, 1983 Miami Dolphins
4. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Matt Ryan, 2008 Atlanta Falcons
6. Joe Namath, 1965 New York Jets
7. Andy Dalton, 2011 Cincinnati Bengals
8. Marlin Briscoe, 1968 Denver Broncos
9. Jim Plunkett, 1971 New England Patriots
10. Charlie Batch, 1998 Detroit Lions

The only other time this occurred was during the 1993 season when Dallas and Buffalo met in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season and the two had met during the regular season (Buffalo won that game, 13-10). Based on that history alone (if you put any credence into those type of stats), New England should win Sunday's game — they won the first Super Bowl matchup but lost the regular season tilt with the Giants back in Week 9, 24-20.

There are a ton of websites where this game has been analyzed to death by experts and non-experts alike. But I'd like to add one more analysis about this game, and it may be a bit unorthodox. Here's why.

When looking at the statistical differences between the two teams, two things are immediately clear: the Patriots have a better offense and the Giants have a better defense. In my estimation, this makes the game a tossup. The weaker defense against the weaker offense, combined with the stronger defense against the stronger offense basically makes it a wash — there's no real statistical advantage by either team. So the way I see it, there are three keys to the game that will bring victory to either side.

1. Pressure the quarterback.

The quarterback play has been the bright point for both teams, but when other teams have been able to get pressure on them, they've been successful. Looking at just the postseason, in the three games that both New York and New England have played that were blowouts, neither quarterback had much pressure put on them by opposing defenses. Both Atlanta and Green Bay were able to get only one sack on Eli Manning, and the Packers forced his only interception of the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady did throw a pick against Denver, but they were unable to sack him. However, in the conference championship games, both San Francisco and Baltimore were able to get quite a bit more pressure on Manning and Brady and nearly won those games. Manning was sacked 5 times by the 49er defense, while Brady was sacked once but threw two picks. If either defense can force the quarterback to make hurried throws or run out of the pocket, it could disrupt the offense because neither team has much of a running game.

2. Establish the ground game

The Giants were last in the NFL in rushing offense and New England wasn't much better, ranking 20th. But both teams have such good defenses that none of their playoff opponents could run the ball effectively against them, either. New York held their three opponents' top rushers to under 75 yards, as did New England (well, almost — Willis McGahee had 76 for Denver).

But, on the opposite side of the ball, neither team could muster a runner that posted more than 75 yards in the playoffs, save Brandon Jacobs, who rushed for 92 against Atlanta. If either team can figure out how to open up holes at the line of scrimmage to get their backs through and into the secondary, it will take a tremendous amount of pressure off the quarterbacks that both teams live and die with.

3. Win the turnover battle

If there was one key that I thought would favor one team over the other, it would be this one. During the playoffs, the Giants were +4 in turnovers, while the Patriots were -4; further, New York was +2 in its regular season meeting with New England. However, for the season, the Patriots were a +17 while the Giants were only +7. Whichever team can take the ball out of the other's hands the most will most likely have the upper hand in the game, since both offenses are pretty much the bread and butter of their success.

If I were to try to pick any favorites in these three categories, I'd simply have to look at it empirically. For the quarterback pressure key, the nod has to go to the Giants. They've collected 4 more interceptions and 21 more sacks than their opponents through the postseason, while New England has picked off 9 more passes, but only registered 15 more sacks than their opponents. That's +4 for the Giants there. As far as the running game goes, New England has the clear edge there. They've averaged almost 12 yards per game more through the playoffs than the Giants, and have also given up about 2½ yards per game less than New York. And turnovers slightly favor New England with a +14 to this point compared with New York's +11.

My prediction? It's pretty close, and statistically this game could be another one for the ages, but I have to give a slight edge to the Patriots. However, statistics don't mean a whole lot; otherwise, the phrase "that's why they play the game on the field" would never have been coined.

That was then: Nelson Cruz, designated goat of the 2011 World Series, kept a promise to turn up at a Mesquite, Texas sporting goods establishment the day after the Series ended. The right fielder kept the date despite knowing the eyes of Texas were locked upon him, but good, after the bottom of the ninth in Game 6: pulled in shallow enough, in manager Ron Washington's no-doubles defense, and with the Rangers a strike away from the Promised Land, Cruz couldn't reach far enough to haul down the drive David Freese whacked to the wall, for the first of two final-strike game-tiers the Cardinals would hit, before the night ended with Freese's Game 7-guaranteeing walk-off bomb.

Never mind the eight postseason bombs Cruz had hit to that point. Nor the would-have-been ninth earlier in Game 6, had Allen Craig not hauled it back in from over the fence in the Texas sixth. When the Cardinals finished what they began in the bottom of the 11th the night before, Cruz must have felt as though Bill Buckner was going to knock on his door holding a wreath in advance of his funeral. But wait — Cruz kept his Mesquite date and four hundred people showed up, not with murder in their hearts but love in the arms they wanted to throw around him.

This is now, and a mere three months later: Kyle Williams, punt returner for the San Francisco 49ers, waited on an overtime boot from New York Giants punter Steve Weatherford in the NFC championship game. He was already on the griddle after he couldn't handle a Weatherford punt late in the fourth quarter, the ball bounding off the 49ers' 39-yard line and then his right knee, tumbling off toward the hands of a Giant defender and turning into Giants' ball, 49ers' 29. Now, on the 49ers' 24, Giants linebacker Jacquian Williams punched the punt out of Williams' hands for Giants receiver Devin Thomas to fall upon. Five plays later, Lawrence Tynes sent one 31 yards through the posts to send the Giants off to a Super Bowl rematch with the New England Patriots.

It sketched Williams' name onto a stall plate in the goats' barn. And the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl, too, because Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff picked the wrong moment to swap his helmet for goat horns. On a day New England quarterback Tom Brady looked like anyone but Tom Brady, and just moments after Ravens' wide receiver Lee Evans was stripped of a certain touchdown catch, with bare moments left in the AFC championship game, Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal attempt that otherwise might have sent that game, too, into overtime.

Maybe it speaks better of Baltimore fans than San Francisco fans, but neither Cundiff nor Evans have received any known death threats, on Twitter or through other channels. (It sure doesn't hurt that Cundiff may have been deked by a scoreboard error that compelled him to bum's-rush it onto the field for the attempt, though the sober professional in you says you're a field goal kicker, it's part of your job to be prepared for the prospect of a bum's rush to the tee.) Williams was flooded with death threats from cyberspace and through elsewhere for at least two days to follow. And while Williams responded with class, mindful enough of receiving far more moral support from his teammates on through most 49ers fans, it looks like the sports goat business still hasn't finished graduating to reasonableness.

You'd think 49ers fans had never been there before. Good thing Twitter wasn't around on January 20, 1991 with 2:36 remaining in that NFC championship game, a shot at a third straight Super Bowl win still within the Niners' reach. That's when Steve Young (filling in for Joe Montana, who was injured) handed off to Roger Craig, Craig plunged right into the middle of the Giants' defensive line, and nose tackle Erik Howard — who was ready for the inside run — butted the ball out of Craig's hands. Lawrence Taylor smothered it on the New York 43, Matt Bahr sent one through the posts seven plays later as time expired, and the Giants went to the Super Bowl on the wings of a staggering 15-13 win.

Apparently, nobody paid all that much attention to the manner in which Nelson Cruz was embraced and forgiven rather than vilified and run out of town, if not out of state. Kyle Williams now has the unfortunate status of keeping company with such baseball men as Don Denkinger and Mitch (Wild Thing) Williams. This is a very disheartening status for a punt returner who was in the game in the first place only because the 49ers' regular go-to guy on punt returns, Ted Ginn, Jr., was injured two weeks earlier. Denkinger wasn't exactly a fill-in; Mitch Williams wasn't exactly a last-minute minor league call-up spelling a suddenly-injured Phillie.

The Wild Thing was believed to have received threatening messages, and was affirmed to have received assorted sharp instruments lain around the tires of his family cars in his driveway … and that was only after blowing the save in Game 4 of the 1993 World Series. When he surrendered, with the Phillies up 14-10, yet, Tony Fernandez's fifth RBI of the game. When he walked Pat Borders, surrendered a two-out, two-run single to a Hall of Famer in waiting, Rickey Henderson (in fairness, center fielder Lenny Dykstra seemed to freeze before trying to run in for a catch), then served a pitch meaty enough for Devon White to hammer for a two-run triple and the game, 16-15.

Then, come Game 6, the Blue Jays ahead in the set 3-2, Williams gets the call in the ninth, the Phillies three outs away from sending it to a seventh game. All he has to do is dispatch the gaudiest lineup in the American League that season. All he has to avoid is letting Henderson lead off by reaching base. All he does is serve the Man of Steal a four pitch walk. All the Wild Thing has to do now is get rid of White, Paul Molitor, and Joe Carter. He does his job with White, luring him into a fly to center that Dykstra — who might have been the Series MVP had the Phillies survived — hauls down easily enough.

But he throws the wrong fastball to Molitor, and the Hall of Famer hits it on the screws and up the pipe.

Then, he throws the wrong slider to Carter on 2-2. Carter merely hits a 3-run homer for game, set, and World Series rings. And even if the Wild Thing had managed to bag Carter, there's another Hall of Famer (Roberto Alomar) on deck, and his bat isn't exactly papier mache, either.

Kyle Williams has something else in common with Mitch Williams. The latter Williams absolutely refused to let it get his goat or anyone else's. His teammates may have wanted to bury their heads in brown paper bags, after having swaggered their way to the World Series in the first place, but Williams didn't have a brown bag anywhere near his person when the postgame swarm of reporters reached his locker.

"Don't come to my locker and expect excuses," the Wild Thing said, soberly if with a small catch in his voice, the once-cocksure relief marksman brought to his knees by the worst public humiliation since Mookie Wilson's grounder skipped through Bill Buckner's creaky wicket, after two Red Sox relievers had blown a save into a tie Game 6 that the Red Sox started the bottom of the tenth leading by two. "I don't make excuses. I blew two games in the World Series. I feel terrible for letting my teammates down. But sulking doesn't bring the ball back over the fence. Life's a bitch. I could be digging ditches. But I'm not."

Kyle Williams sounded almost Mitch Williams-like in the immediate aftermath of the 49ers' overtime deflation. "It's one of those things you have to take accountability for," Williams said soberly enough. "Everybody is responsible for what they do on the field. It's something that I was responsible for and I made a mistake, and it's time to own up to it and move forward." He's only a second-year NFL man; he probably has a decent enough football career ahead of him. And if he doesn't, he's probably got a very decent life yet to live.

Phillies fans — too long reputed to be the least forgiving sports fans on the face of the earth ("those people," pitcher/flake Bo Belinsky, briefly a 1960s Phillie, once crowed, "would boo at a funeral") — turned out to be the most forgiving of Mitch Williams' fans. This is in large part because the Wild Thing wouldn't let them do otherwise. He had a mere three more major league seasons in him, in which he was anything but the pitcher who once saved multitudes of games after getting thatclose to blowing them sky high, or so it often seemed. He went from there to tending bar to managing in the minor leagues to becoming a television commentator. Not to mention turning up every so often for charity with Joe Carter, with whom he's forged a strong enough friendship. (Shades of Ralph Branca and Bobby Thomson.) And it's even money that nowadays people will talk more about Williams's endearing on-air persona than about the fatal 2-2 pitch that sailed over the left field wall.

Denkinger had it at least as bad in his hour of agony as Williams would in his. When he inexplicably called Dane Iorg safe at first base in the top of the ninth, when everyone in Royals Stadium including his teammates knew St. Louis reliever Todd Worrell had beaten him to the pad, and by three feet at least, it opened a door for the Royals to send the 1985 World Series to a seventh game. A game in which Denkinger, to the absolute and unapologetic outrage of everyone in a Cardinal uniform, turned up calling the balls and strikes in the standard ump rotation. It was no further Denkinger's idea for the Cardinals to implode as profoundly as they would in Game Seven than it was Whitey Herzog's idea, even, that Denkinger should have had to live with death threats, a radio disc jockey exposing his home address and telephone number, and police protection including a patrol car in the driveway of his Iowa home.

Today Denkinger is an outspoken advocate of official instant replay in baseball's championship rounds. It only took about three decades to rehabilitate his image, however long it took for the death threats and radio idiocy and police protection to dissipate.

Football fans can be and often are even more grotesque than baseball fans when it comes to failures in the heat of the biggest moments. The failures don't always have a common definition, either, and it isn't just players who are prone to those and the excess of fan outrage, either. Ask Nebraska athletic director Tom Osborne. He was the school's winningest head football coach ever, winning three national titles, and going an extraterrestrial 60-3 in his final three seasons in that job. And you can find enough Husker fans even now who remember little much else beyond Osborne's gutsy but failed attempt — when Miami safety Ken Calhoun smacked away Turner Gill's certain pass to Jeff Smith in the end zone — to win the 1984 Orange Bowl and the national title with a two-point conversion, instead of backing into the title with a tying point-after field goal kick.

Give me a dollar for every moment I heard someone call for Osborne's execution in the two or three years following that game (I lived in Nebraska in those years, serving with the Air Force) and I could retire myself and three other people comfortably.

"We were trying to win the game. I don't think you go for a tie in that case. You try to win the game," Osborne said matter-of-factly when it was all over. "We wanted an undefeated season and a clear-cut national championship ... I don't think any of our players would be satisfied backing into (the win and the title) with a (point-after). I don't think that's the way to do it." Eerily enough, in the preparatory run-up to the game, Osborne was asked if he'd try the two-pointer in just that situation. "I hope it doesn't come up," the coach replied. "I'll be crucified one way or another on that one." Jeane Dixon, call your office.

On the other hand, however, I don't remember Osborne getting death threats, either. Calls for his firing every 10 minutes, maybe. Burning in effigy, perhaps. I don't remember seeing or hearing about one, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. This was a state, after all, whose voters — enjoying initiative, referendum, and recall among their electoral rights — once got thisclose to recalling every member of Nebraska's unicameral state legislature who voted against making the state's license plates the colors of the Huskers' uniforms. There's something just a little untoward about demanding a man's unemployment because he tried his level best to win and the attempt was beaten in fair competition. Never mind demanding the unemployment of a large group of men and women because they though there were more important laws to pass than flashing your team colors on your license plates.

Maybe Roger Craig learned to live it down because he'd already had three Super Bowl rings on his hand before running into Erik Howard's helmet. Maybe it doesn't matter how many rings you've got on your hands.

Here's hoping Kyle Williams — like his Wild Thing namesake; like Don Denkinger; like Tom Osborne (did I mention he also survived enough to beat Peyton Manning in the 1997 Orange Bowl, and become a three-term Republican Congressman from Nebraska not long afterward); like Roger Craig; like Ralph Branca; like Johnny Pesky; like Tommy Lasorda (he lost a trip to the World Series by letting Tom Niedenfeuer pitch to Jack Clark with first base open, two on, and the Dodgers one out from the '85 Series); like maybe every other Chicago Cub, every third Detroit Lion, and half as many New York Mets; like just about any of sports' most notorious goats — stuffs it right back down the throats of the idiot brigades whose software simply isn't programmed to accept the idea that games are played by humans. That humans are only too fallible. And, that somebody has to lose, because nobody, political correctness or otherwise, has yet figured out a way to make everyone a winner.

Time to beat the rush and start looking now.

Heading into the heart of the regular season, with conference play in full swing, it's time to search for the ultimate bracket buster. The contender from the pretenders. The difference between winning a pool and finishing in dead last.

Cinderellas can come in bunches, or can be near impossible to find. But here's the first edition of many at who could spoil a bracket or two come March.

The top five, if you please...

1) Murray State (20-0, 8-0 OVC)

They stand alone as the only undefeated team in Division I, but don't let anyone fool you, the Racers are legit. Two intangibles stand out with Murray State. First, you have to like a team who has crashed the dance in recent times, which the Racers did two short seasons ago (they were a basket away from ending Butler's run much earlier). Second, come March, you have to like teams with a solid point guard, and the Racers have that in junior Isaiah Canaan. Given also that Murray State has quality depth in terms of good shooters, and they're going to be a tough out, no matter the seeding.

2) Creighton (19-2, 9-1 MVC)

The Bluejays have relied heavily on Doug McDermott, but he's carried the weight in impressive style, proving he is one of the top forwards in the country. McDermott averages 23.5 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, all while keeping out of foul trouble, which only frustrates teams more as everyone knows the target is on his back. However, keep your eye on Grant Gibbs, though, as well. He averages close to 6 assists a game and is a key catalyst in the Creighton attack. A quick stat: Creighton is 3-0 this year against the Big Ten.

3) Wichita State (18-3, 9-1 MVC)

Gregg Marshall is one heck of a basketball coach. First, he goes to Winthrop, who'd never been to the NCAA tournament and promptly takes them seven times in nine years. Now, fresh off of winning the NIT last year, Marshall has the Shockers firmly in NCAA contention, thanks in part to a great start in conference play and a solid 19 point win over UNLV as a resume-builder. Wichita is tough because they have a great inside-outside presence. Inside, Garrett Stutz is a force, leading the team in points (12.9/game) and rebounds (7.6/game), while Joe Ragland, Toure Murray and David Kyles anchor the outside beautifully. Three solid guards spells lots of trouble for opposing teams in the Big Dance. Marshall plays a deep bench and coaches a team that shoots well and doesn't beat themselves on the court.

4) San Diego State (18-2, 4-0 Mtn. West)

This might be Steve Fisher's best coaching job yet. The Aztecs don't have a superstar player. Their overall stats aren't eye-popping. However, they're deep, they're balanced, they play incredibly hard, they're confident and they win. When your only two losses are to Baylor and Creighton, that's nothing to be ashamed about. Four players average over 10 points a game for the Aztecs, but my favorite to watch is Jamaal Franklin, a 6-5 guard who is second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game) and leads the team in rebounds (6.8 boards a game). SDSU is just a lot of fun to watch. They have mischief written all over them.

5) UNLV (19-3, 3-1 Mtn. West)

19-3 with a resounding win over North Carolina at the Dean Dome. That's good enough already to ensure an NCAA bid, but the Rebels could definitely throw a kink or two in the plans of top seeded teams. Mike Moser is an absolute beast, averaging a double-double per game (14.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, respectively), and has to be contained for opposing teams to have any chance against UNLV. If you're a fan of the assist to turnover ratio, you'll really like the Rebels, as they average 4.2 more assists than turnovers each game.

So there's the five most dangerous mid-majors out there for now. Here's some teams though that could climb into the top five in time...

6) Harvard (16-2, 2-0 Ivy League)

This has to be Harvard's year to win their first trip to the dance, right? The loss to Fordham is puzzling; the win at Florida State looks better by the week.

7) St. Mary's (19-2, 8-0 West Coast)

Love the experience and the winning streak that the Gaels are on. The blowout of Gonzaga was particularly impressive. There's a test waiting for them this weekend at BYU.

8) Middle Tennessee (20-2, 9-0 Sun Belt)

They've yet to beat a ranked team, so they're not in the top five. Beat Vandy this Saturday, though, and then it's really time to start talking about the Blue Raiders.

9) Long Beach State (15-6, 8-0 Big West)

They beat Pitt and Xavier, who are slumping, but their near misses at Kansas and North Carolina definitely say that the 49ers are no fluke.

10) Oral Roberts (18-4, 10-0 Summit)

ORU is dominating the Summit League and has a win over Xavier to boot, though that's losing a little luster.

11) Denver (15-5, 5-2 Sun Belt)

A little inconsistent at times, but solid wins over St. Mary's and Southern Miss. The Sun Belt looks stronger than the Pac-12 right now. No, you read that right. Yes, I'm serious.

12) Southern Miss (18-3, 5-1 Conference USA)

Larry Eustachy's is back and with a vengeance. The Golden Eagles have nice wins over Ole Miss and Arizona, but with the lack of a marquee team on the schedule, need to finish strong to turn some heads.

Since then, his ERA has been under 5.25 just once, in 2010. He's been wildly inconsistent, but more bad than good. I often wondered if it was worth keeping him around.

So I surprised myself by how upset I was to learn he had been arrested in his native Dominican Republic and revealed to be living a lie.

It's probably more common than we realize. Just last year, "Leo Nunez," the Marlins pitcher, was outed as really being Juan Oviedo and being a year older than he stated. Given that the Marlins just resigned him to a multi-million dollar deal, it looks like they are taking for granted that they will be able to get Nunez back to the U.S., which bodes well for Carmona (and I don't know whether to be surprised or not that millionaire baseball players are granted exceptions when it comes to such slam-dunk deportation issues as bearing a false identity).

But that's not to say I think Carmona should be deported. Or that he shouldn't be. This is one of those issues where it's impossible to know even where to begin. These are some very tough ethical issues to grapple with.

The Dominican Republic is a third-world nation mired in poverty. Baseball players are their most notable and proudest exports. Several MLB teams have an official training presence there. Besides luring quality players, there are several other reasons why establishing a base in the Dominican Republic is an attractive option for major league teams.

One is, foreign players are not subject to the MLB draft, so teams can sign as many players as they like. They can also develop players with a devotion and singular purpose that they can't with American kids who are busy with high school and college.

Most of the kids recruited into the DR development complexes are poor, poor, poor. Third-world poor. Baseball gives them an opportunity to get a way out, and when that opportunity goes wanting, players will do what they can to re-enter the system and try again, replete with a new name and birthday.

This is because the brains of baseball have decided, rightly or wrongly, that a players with skills but also, say, control problems or a lack of plate discipline are worth investing in at 16, but not at 18 or 19. At that young age, so the thinking goes, you know whether you have a real talent on your hands.

So the players who are 18 or older and dumped from a developing program have two options: give up, which would sting the pride of anyone, let alone a teenager, and, worse, go back to poverty with no real avenue to lift yourself out of that poverty.

Not only is baseball a chance to escape the poverty, but it's a chance to elevate your family out of it, as well. This cannot be overstated. We all know what a strong sense of family prevails in the Latin world.

In fact, it's easy to make the argument that lying-and-trying again is the ethical, family-saving choice.

But, obviously and reasonably, MLB teams do not want to be lied to. They don't want to invest in a player that statistically is much less likely to improve and, more to the point, they want to know what they are truthfully getting. Who wouldn't? And it's not MLB's job to eradicate poverty. They are in the Dominican Republic to find baseball players, not be an avatar of righting social inequality, which is a problem MLB did not create.

Towards that end, MLB has reacted to the burgeoning specter of age falsification by conducting DNA tests, bone density tests, and the like to determine as scientifically as they can what a player's real age is — and they test the players' siblings, too. A lot of teams have also responded by moving their focus from the Dominican Republic to Venezuela, where false identity problems are not much of a concern.

So Major League Baseball deserves to know what they are truly getting in a player and sign and cut players accordingly. But it's understandable and even in my view forgivable for players to try to game the system for the reasons I outlined above. That's why it's hard to extract right and wrong from all this, to assign good guys and bad guys, or at the end of the day, know what is the "right" thing to do about Carmona and others like him.

So with my moral compass failing to produce an answer here, I'm forced to default to a far more base instinct, sentimentality.

When Carmona is good, he is very, very good, and has already sewed himself into the fabric of Indians lore. He did so not just by pitching well, but by making himself into an icon of determination in a game that many Indians bloggers and commentariat are calling their favorite Indians memory, and mine as well.

2007 ALDS, Game 2. New York Yankees at Cleveland. You might remember the game, it became kind of famous. In the eighth inning, with New York up 1-0, a swarm of tiny insects called midges descended on Jacobs Field. It was so bad that play had to be stopped for a time. After a few minutes the game resumed, but the bugs were still there. On every pitch, the camera would close in on Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain. Drenched in sweat, Chamberlain swatted and rubbed and fussed against the insects covering his body.

I can still see the closeups of his neck with about a dozen of the small, non-biting insects taking root as he fruitlessly slapped at them, harried and distracted. It reminded me of some sort of fighting video game, where you can see the opponents health meter go down, bit by bit. The bugs, they got to him. Chamberlain threw 2 wild pitches and allowed 2 walks and the Indians tied the game off of him without a hit.

In the top of the ninth, it was Carmona's turn. He was composed. He didn't swat. He didn't call timeout for more bug spray to be sprayed on him. It was like the bugs weren't even there. He retired the first two batters, and after Bobby Abreu singled and stole second, Carmona struck out A-Rod to end the threat. He pumped his fist and yelled. It was his last pitch of the game, and the Indians went on to win in 11 innings and, three nights later, win the series.

A picture of Carmona, leaning in to read the signs of his catcher, his head in a cloud of midges, hangs in the Indians front office and in their spring training facility in Goodyear, Arizona, "an example to all the Minor Leaguers who pass by of the mental toughness it takes to succeed at the game’s highest level." as written by Anthony Castrovince.

That (and a righteous nosebleed delivered to Gary Sheffield) is who we are dealing with. That's Roberto Hernandez Heredia. That's Fausto Carmona. I hope he comes back, and is greeted with cheers and applause when he does.

Even with a lot of things not going their way in October and November, Ricky Rubio and friends have been putting a muzzle on the preseason haters now that the season is in full swing. Though it began just a little over a month ago, the compressed season is a quarter of the way done and therefore it's not too early to start weighing the Rookie of the Year contenders for the draft class formerly known as dismal.

There are plenty of other names that are helping to prove that the 2011-2012 rookies are not nearly as weak as they were made out to be in the preseason, but I believe these five players (especially the last two) have the best chance to win the hardware at the end of the season:.

Iman Shumpert, G, New York Knicks — Unlike Rubio and Kyrie Irving, Shumpert is in the shade of two pretty big shadows in New York, playing alongside Carmelo Anthony and Amare, but he is putting up similar numbers to a few other third options like fellas named Ray Allen and Chauncy Billups. With Baron Davis coming back, there is a very real chance that Shumpert's 12 points a game could drop, but Baron has had a recent knack for taking a liking to an up-and-comer and making them even better with his playmaking abilities (Griffin in L.A. and the rest of his team in Cleveland). If Shumpert can let Davis mold his role, I think he could continue to put up contending numbers and be a key reason the Knicks turn their season around.

Marshon Brooks, G, New Jersey Nets — If any rookie is going to outscore Kyrie Irving this year, it will be Brooks. He is already putting in 15 a game and he is a budding star on a dismal team, which means he should start getting the rock more and more each game. This is a double-edged sword, though (like with Irving) because it is tough to weigh the value of someone who isn't actually contributing to wins. I think Brooks will end the season closer to the 20 ppg mark and hopefully another Net can step up and give him a break from the "he's only good because no one else is" talks.

Kawhi Leonard, F, San Antonio Spurs — Though no doubt the least productive and least recognizable name on my list, Leonard has a few things going for him that others on my list do not. Leonard is on a winning team, and thus he will start to be noticed more and more and the winning team he is on is the San Antonio "dinner at 4 PM" Spurs. With back-to-back (and a couple back-to-back-to-back) games continuing for the rest of the compressed season, the borderline elderly Spurs are destined for more injuries like the one that happened to Manu Ginobili last week. In Manu's stead, Leonard stepped into a starting role and dropped in double figures in all three starts. If he continues to get minutes (which he played over 30 in the two games previous to Manu's injury), I think he could really shake up the ROY voting when the season is ending for most other contributing rookies.

Kyrie Irving, G, Cleveland Cavaliers — Irving is having a great season already and his scoring prowess is even more impressive than I thought it would be after watching him at Duke. Though I'm a sucker for a dime-dropping point guard, and in turn I'm picking Rubio to win the award, Irving is no slouch in this category, either. He is an exceptional passer, but also knows that when his team needs a bucket, he should be the one shooting the ball and therefore his assists are understandably a little lower than I like to see from an every-minute point guard. The Cavs are 6-9 and in the East they still have a very good chance to make the playoffs, which would greatly show Irving's value to his team. I've been excited to see Rubio play in the states since he was drafted, but I'm also excited to say the NBA didn't have to go to Europe to produce an exceptional rookie point guard in the 2011-2012 class.

Ricky Rubio, G, Minnesota Timberwolves — Comparisons to Steve Nash normally make me laugh because he is the only pass-first player to win the league's MVP since Oscar Robertson, and he has done it twice. Ricky's comparisons to Nash are still way too soon if you ask me, but I think with some playoff wins and clutch plays down the stretch (which Nash has in spades), then the comparisons may become just. Rubio is only averaging 11 points per game, as opposed to Irving's 17, but he is also only taking 8 shots per game as opposed to Irving's 14 (both incredible percentages for rookie point guards). Rubio is a genius at making people better with solid finishers like Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, and his assists will steadily rise as his minutes continue to increase (33 mpg in the last 10). If the Wolves allow Rubio to be their guy, as the Cavaliers have allowed Irving, he will be the winner of the 2011-2012 Rookie of the Year award.