Anthony
02-16-2005, 03:29 AM
It's always been my belief that it's never too early to begin formulating ideas for next season's picks - and indeed I've already started. While these observations are necessarily vague and most definitely subject to change, here they are:
AFC EAST: Unless one reads an awful lot into the fact that every team that has beaten Andy Reid's Eagles in the postseason has finished 7-9 the following year (it is true), there is little reason not to see the Patriots remaining atop at least this division in 2005. In New York, Chad Pennington will be coming off two straight injury-interrupted seasons, and the Bills have cast their lot with the unproven J.P. Losman at quarterback and lack a first-round pick in April's draft; kind of gives Nick Saban serious hope for a second-place finish in his first season in Miami provided the Dolphins get their hands on a decent running back.
AFC NORTH: Plaxico Burress is an unrestricted free agent, and if he goes from the Steelers to the Ravens it could tilt the entire balance of power in the division in Baltimore's favor. Cincinnati is still one whole defense away from realistic contention, and Cleveland will have to start essentially from scratch under Romeo Crennel, the Browns signaling their intention to do so with the release of Jeff Garcia.
AFC SOUTH: The Colts would seem to be absolutely safe in this division for 2005 even if they are unable to upgrade their defense, and with the division matched up against the woeful NFC West in interconference play they could be in line for home field throughout if they do obtain meaningful defensive help. The improving Texans look more formidable than the Jaguars, who haven't proven that they can put teams away. The Titans, facing another Stalinist purge courtesy of the salary cap, are prime contenders for the #1 draft pick in 2006 despite the hiring of offensive coordinator Norm Chow, which at least has apparently dissuaded Steve McNair from retiring.
AFC WEST: In the past the Chiefs have fared poorly the year after a 13-3 season (and that was the case again in 2004), but have also had a history of rebounding the year after that, and one or two key acquisitions on defense could have them thinking division crown again in '05. The Chargers face the NFL's biggest jump in schedule difficulty (tied with Atlanta), and will lose the all-important element of surprise, Denver must shake off the underachiever label and Oakland's near-term future appears bleak.
NFC EAST: If the 2005 Eagles don't break the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx (five of the last six have had losing seasons the following year and none has returned to the conference championship round the next season since 1993), it may go on for another 20 or 30 years, especially if they do land another big-name receiver to pair with T.O., as now seems likely. With two first-round draft picks the Cowboys are the logical favorites to complete the division exacta while the Giants are the equally logical choice for the cellar without a first-rounder, with the offense-starved Redskins in between.
NFC NORTH: There has been only one minor change in the order of finish here since 2002 (last year when the Lions leap-frogged the Bears for third), and more of the same could be in store for 2005 as it now appears unlikely that either Brett Favre or Randy Moss are leaving. Sooner or later the Lions are going to have to make a decision about Joey Harrington, and Rex Grossman must prove that last year's devastating knee injury is not career-threatening.
NFC SOUTH: The Falcons are no lock to repeat in a division they won by three games in 2004, as they must take the league's steepest rise in strength of schedule (tied with San Diego) and have never posted back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history. But how much did last year's injuries really impact Carolina? Sure, Steve Smith went out early, but Muhsin Muhammad led the entire NFL in receiving yards in his absence and running back Nick Goings had five 100-yard games after both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster went down. The Saints always manage to make it to .500 but are little threat for better barring a massive off-season infusion of talent on defense, and salary-cap woes all but guarantee a continuation of Tampa Bay's post-Super Bowl slide.
NFC WEST: If the Cardinals can get even a little better at quarterback between now and September the division could be theirs for the taking, particularly if the Seahawks do lose too many of their unrestricted free agents. Mike Martz has lost the respect of his players in St. Louis, and the hiring of Mike Nolan in San Francisco is tailor-made to raise hackles in the usual circles, which have been surprisingly silent on the subject. The favorable recent trend of teams the year after finishing worst overall (the last four have gone a combined 32-32 the following season) may have met its match with the '05 Niners.
AFC EAST: Unless one reads an awful lot into the fact that every team that has beaten Andy Reid's Eagles in the postseason has finished 7-9 the following year (it is true), there is little reason not to see the Patriots remaining atop at least this division in 2005. In New York, Chad Pennington will be coming off two straight injury-interrupted seasons, and the Bills have cast their lot with the unproven J.P. Losman at quarterback and lack a first-round pick in April's draft; kind of gives Nick Saban serious hope for a second-place finish in his first season in Miami provided the Dolphins get their hands on a decent running back.
AFC NORTH: Plaxico Burress is an unrestricted free agent, and if he goes from the Steelers to the Ravens it could tilt the entire balance of power in the division in Baltimore's favor. Cincinnati is still one whole defense away from realistic contention, and Cleveland will have to start essentially from scratch under Romeo Crennel, the Browns signaling their intention to do so with the release of Jeff Garcia.
AFC SOUTH: The Colts would seem to be absolutely safe in this division for 2005 even if they are unable to upgrade their defense, and with the division matched up against the woeful NFC West in interconference play they could be in line for home field throughout if they do obtain meaningful defensive help. The improving Texans look more formidable than the Jaguars, who haven't proven that they can put teams away. The Titans, facing another Stalinist purge courtesy of the salary cap, are prime contenders for the #1 draft pick in 2006 despite the hiring of offensive coordinator Norm Chow, which at least has apparently dissuaded Steve McNair from retiring.
AFC WEST: In the past the Chiefs have fared poorly the year after a 13-3 season (and that was the case again in 2004), but have also had a history of rebounding the year after that, and one or two key acquisitions on defense could have them thinking division crown again in '05. The Chargers face the NFL's biggest jump in schedule difficulty (tied with Atlanta), and will lose the all-important element of surprise, Denver must shake off the underachiever label and Oakland's near-term future appears bleak.
NFC EAST: If the 2005 Eagles don't break the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx (five of the last six have had losing seasons the following year and none has returned to the conference championship round the next season since 1993), it may go on for another 20 or 30 years, especially if they do land another big-name receiver to pair with T.O., as now seems likely. With two first-round draft picks the Cowboys are the logical favorites to complete the division exacta while the Giants are the equally logical choice for the cellar without a first-rounder, with the offense-starved Redskins in between.
NFC NORTH: There has been only one minor change in the order of finish here since 2002 (last year when the Lions leap-frogged the Bears for third), and more of the same could be in store for 2005 as it now appears unlikely that either Brett Favre or Randy Moss are leaving. Sooner or later the Lions are going to have to make a decision about Joey Harrington, and Rex Grossman must prove that last year's devastating knee injury is not career-threatening.
NFC SOUTH: The Falcons are no lock to repeat in a division they won by three games in 2004, as they must take the league's steepest rise in strength of schedule (tied with San Diego) and have never posted back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history. But how much did last year's injuries really impact Carolina? Sure, Steve Smith went out early, but Muhsin Muhammad led the entire NFL in receiving yards in his absence and running back Nick Goings had five 100-yard games after both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster went down. The Saints always manage to make it to .500 but are little threat for better barring a massive off-season infusion of talent on defense, and salary-cap woes all but guarantee a continuation of Tampa Bay's post-Super Bowl slide.
NFC WEST: If the Cardinals can get even a little better at quarterback between now and September the division could be theirs for the taking, particularly if the Seahawks do lose too many of their unrestricted free agents. Mike Martz has lost the respect of his players in St. Louis, and the hiring of Mike Nolan in San Francisco is tailor-made to raise hackles in the usual circles, which have been surprisingly silent on the subject. The favorable recent trend of teams the year after finishing worst overall (the last four have gone a combined 32-32 the following season) may have met its match with the '05 Niners.