Western Conference: First Round Playoff Predictions

[tobynosker]

Phoenix vs. Memphis

Key Player: Shawn Marion, Phoenix; 19.0 ppg, and 12.25 rpg against Memphis this season - if he continues to put numbers like this against the Grizzlies, the Suns shouldn't have any trouble in this first round match-up. The interesting note when looking at Marion's stats, he's never led the Suns in scoring against Memphis this season, and only once has he lead the team in rebounding (16 boards in a loss).

Prediction: Phoenix in five games; These two teams split the four games they had in the regular season, but the Grizzlies had trouble stopping Phoenix's transition offense. The Grizzlies will need their depth to make its presence felt like it did when Memphis defeated the Suns in Phoenix. Bonzi Wells, Stromile Swift and Brian Cardinal came off the bench and led Memphis in scoring, combining for 43 of the Grizzlies 88 points. But Phoenix just has too much run-and-gun power for Memphis to handle.

San Antonio vs. Denver

Key Player: Marcus Camby, Denver; 11.5 ppg and 10.75 rpg this season - needs big rebounding effort for the Nuggets to maintain a shot against San Antonio. The Nuggets have only decisively won the rebounding edge in one game against the Spurs this season, which was a nine point loss in San Antonio. And remember Camby ranks second in the NBA in blocked shots.

Prediction: San Antonio in six games; Denver has won 17 of their last 20 games, including a 102-84 home win over the Spurs, who were playing without Tim Duncan. I fully expect San Antonio to win this first round match-up, but with Duncan not completely healthy, the Nuggets have all the capabilites to make it an interesting match-up. If Duncan is 100%, forget all about that interesting match-up scenario.

Seattle vs. Sacremento

Key Player: Reggie Evans, Seattle; 12.75 rpg against Sacremento this season - he's not going to provide you with a lot of scoring (5 ppg against the Kings this year), but if he is able to dominate the boards like he has against Sacremento this season, you can expect Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Luke Ridnour to provide the point production.

Prediction: Seattle in four games; I am predicting this as a sweep, because this seems like the only real lopsided game in the Western Conference playoffs. Both Ray and Rashard Lewis sat out the last game of the regular season for the Sonics with minor injuries that shouldn't effect them in the playoffs. The problem is Sacremento isn't the same playoff-tested team that fans have been accustomed too. The Kings will need a big performance out of Corliss Williamson off of the bench.

Dallas vs. Houston

Key Player: Tracy McGrady, Houston; 31.25 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 6.5 apg against Dallas this season - I don't normally like to pick a team's star as their key player, because you always expect them to produce. But this is a series in which McGrady will have to prove his worth to this team. He can have tremendous performances like the overtime shooutout-loss with Dirk Nowitzki in which he compiled 48 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists. Or he can have a 15 point, 3 rebound and 2 assist game like also had against the Mavericks this season.

Prediction: Dallas in six games; I believe the Rockets are going to give the Mavericks a run for their money, but I believe Dallas is too good to not advance. The outside shot is going to be key for the Mavericks, who shot a terrible 21% from beyond the arc the last time these two teams played. Jason Terry and Michael Finley are going to need to provide the outside production and Terry is also going to have to handle the ball better. Terry averages 1.8 turnovers a game this season, yet has turned it over an average of nearly three times a game this year against the Rockets.

[#99]

In a rush right now, so really quick:

Suns in 5
Spurs in 7
Sonics in 6
Mavs in 7

[buckeyefan78]

Phoenix vs. Memphis...

Suns in five- Of all the teams Memphis could have got in the first round, I think they match up the best against Phoenix. That's not saying much for a team unable to find the spark under Fratello like they did under Brown. Not much else to say here other than look for Phoenix to have a few games of 110+ points and the media kiss their butts like they have all year. Makes it funnier and more impressive when the Spurs lay into them later this spring though, so I won't mind they hype over nothing.

San Antonio vs. Denver...

Spurs in five. George Karl in the playoffs. 'Nough said.

Seattle vs. Sacramento...

Kings in a sweep- Sonics have been slumping lately, Sacramento is eager to prove they are better without Webber.

Dallas vs. Houston...

Mavs in six- Should be interesting to see how much Avery Johnson has improved this team's defense. Key will be Mavs stopping the Houston role players. T-Mac and Yao should have great numbers all series long, but without advancing. Also of interest will be who Johnson puts on Yao, how much time he gives to Van Horn, and how Van Gundy guards Dirk.

[#99]

Spurs vs. Nuggets will probably be the best series of out of the entire first and second rounds. I don't see anyway that one doesn't go seven. Denver matches up incredibly well with the Spurs. They have the bodies to bang on a less-than-100% Duncan down low as well as intimidate Parker when he drives the lane. Having Andre Miller running the point doesn't hurt either. I think the key to this series, which is full of interesting matchups, will be Bruce Bowen shutting down Carmelo Anthony. If Melo can't find his shot, the rest of his game will suffer and down go the Nuggets.

[G-MenNMetsfan]

Sun in 4
SPurs in 6
Soncis in 5
Mavs in 7

[Alex]

Phoenix over Memphis in 5
San Antonio over Denver in 6
Sacremento over Seattle in 7
Dallas over Houston in 6

[Marc]

Phoenix over Memphis in 5
San Antonio over Denver in 6
Seattle over Sacramento 5
Dallas over Houston in 7

[Tarkus]

Suns in 5...

Spurs in 6...

Kings in 7...

Dallas in 6...

[trayhezy]

Speaking more from the heart when I think Memphis can get a couple of games from Phoenix because my eyes say different, but I will go with my heart an say Phoenix in 6.

I don't think the Sonics can win in the playoffs, but I don't think Sacramento is healthy enough to exploit that so I will go with the Sonics in 7.

I don't think Dallas has enough of the goods (point guard play, low post scoring) to win playoff basketball. Rockets in six.

Dnever is another fashionable pick to give a title contender first round trouble. I don't see it. If Duncan is 80% or better the Spurs sweep, anything less and the Spurs win in 5.

[Shawndo]

There are some REALLY good matchups out West (Sonics and Kings, Mavs and Rockets, Nuggets and Spurs), that are tough to call... the only one I would call without a doubt is the Suns taking out the Grizzlies... (Grizz will be lucky to win one).
Winner: Suns in a sweep
Who I'm rooting for: Suns; I like Amare, Marion, and Nash

Sonics up 2-0 now on the Kings, with a very decisive victory on Tuesday. Can the Kings rebound at home? (in more ways than one!) That will be the question, and I hate to bet against my home team here, but in the end it looks like the Sonics may have a little more gas in the tank:
Winner: Sonics in 7
Who I'm rooting for: Kings; I like Bibby, Jackson, and Miller


Denver off to a great start against the Spurs, but that was largely thanks to a really lucky game by Denver's Andre Miller, and very uncharacteristically poor shooting from the Spurs (*doublee). I think Denver may have one or two more of those in them, but in the end will drop to the superior Spurs.
Winner: Spurs in 6
Who I'm rooting for: Nuggets; underdogs & I don't like the Spurs

Finally, my favorite matchup is the Rockets vs Mavericks... Dallas has been VERY hot coming into the playoffs, but when you have a T-Mac and a Yao Ming both playing their best basketball, with the role players filling in nicely, the Rockets are almost reminding me of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers... I'm starting to see Yao act like he wants some respect! Dirk, you have a very funny NBA trophy commercial, but your Mavs are going down in 6.
Winner: Houston in 6
Who I'm rooting for: Rockets! I love T-Mac & Yao

[doublee]

Don't forget to mention that San Antonio just flat out choked in that game on Sunday. That loss had as much to do with the Spurs going 1 for 17 from the field and, I think, 0-4 from the line over the last ten minutes plus of the game than how well Denver was playing. Don't get me wrong Denver played a good game, but if San Antonio hits just two of those free throws and four more of those field goal attempts they win the game.

[trayhezy]

It's now official.............the Memphis Grizzlies are the softest team in the NBA.

At some point when you have guys dunking and hanging on the rim and staring you down afterwards you have to do something. Amare Stoudamire should have been knocked into the third row behind the bench (where I was sitting) but these guys are to soft to give a good hard foul.

This is the playoffs for pete's sake!!!!!
Whatever happened to the no-layup rule.
Rick Mahorn where are you?

[Shawndo]

That's why I said the Grizz would be lucky to even get one.

From my POV I gotta hand it to Amare, Shawn, and Nash for just being damn near unstoppable in the paint... and then Amare for the stare down... I love that $#!&

[Shawndo]

Kings with a decisive victory on Friday, now can they even the series on Sunday? I think so... Arco Arena gives them quite a boost. But Ray Allen is most deserving of his nickname, the Silent Assassin. He doesn't talk, he's like a ninja, just knocking down those 3s or swooping into the lane with deadly precision. and the difference in this series may very well be the extra-ordinary performance of Jerome James, who has really stepped it up and played up to his ability. I still think Seattle will take this in 7 but I hope I'm wrong :)

[YankeeDoodle]

The Rockets blew it...AGAIN. AAH!

Home team has yet to win.

Now Yao is the key player. Stay out of foul trouble, pound the ball inside (or kick it back out).

AND STOP THE DALLAS THREE.

[#99]

You've gotta believe that Dallas/Houston is going seven games. This is excellent news for the Suns who just swept through Memphis. Can you imagine how drained the winner of the Mavs/Rockets series will be and then realize that they will have to run -- and I mean RUN -- with Phoenix? Oy, recipe for trouble, right there.

[Shawndo]

agreed. The winner of Dallas/Houston will not be able to keep up with a rested Suns squad, I'd wager.

[Clipps]

Actually, i think it would be easier for the Roclets/Mavericks because they will be all loosened out and would still have high intensity while the Suns take a huge break and are not as fired up. A long resting period itsn't always good. It can easily back fire on the Suns.

[Shawndo]

or consider that Mike D'Antoni has time to seriously analyze both Houston and Dallas and plenty of time for drills specifically designed to prepare his squad for each matchup possibility. I would go with being rested and better prepared any day. ;)

[Clipps]

I remember way back in the stoneage when the Lakers won those 3 championships, After that gruelling, intense 7 game series, the Lakers were playing their best basketball in a million years and when it came time where they play the Nets, the Lakers still had the intensity in them like if they were still playing the Kings and completely trashed the Nets for the first half untill the Lakers calmed down and realised the Nets were now where near as talented as the Kings. And then the year before, after the Lakers swept the western conference, the Lakers had the week long rest while the Sixers were still trying to finish off the Bucks in game 7 and while the Lakers were laid back, andfelt confident, the Sixers were still high in intensity and had high energy and they were loosened up when they had to play the Lakers and then stunned the Staple Center crowd.

[trayhezy]

Good point Clipps..............I can work the other way with the long layoff hurting the resting team.

[Shawndo]

and what would be the odds of a good rest between grueling playoff battles hurting or helping a team? anyone want to do the math? ;) I rest my case.

So at this point we have Seattle going up against San Antonio, barring some sort of miracle in Denver... and Phoenix going up against...

Well that's what the first round has come to. The best matchup we have in the West in the first is the Texas battle of Dirk & Oustanding Company vs. Yao & T-MAC.

GO ROCKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D

I know the Mavs are favored in this matchup (according to the ESPN 'Expert Predictions'), but I believe in T-Mac. Don't let me down, T

[#99]

Originally posted by Clipps
I remember way back in the stoneage when the Lakers won those 3 championships, After that gruelling, intense 7 game series, the Lakers were playing their best basketball in a million years and when it came time where they play the Nets, the Lakers still had the intensity in them like if they were still playing the Kings and completely trashed the Nets for the first half untill the Lakers calmed down and realised the Nets were now where near as talented as the Kings. And then the year before, after the Lakers swept the western conference, the Lakers had the week long rest while the Sixers were still trying to finish off the Bucks in game 7 and while the Lakers were laid back, andfelt confident, the Sixers were still high in intensity and had high energy and they were loosened up when they had to play the Lakers and then stunned the Staple Center crowd.

Two things:

1. In '02, the Lakers were vastly superior to NJ - rest or not. A sweep was expected.

2. In '01, Sixers lost in 5.

But your point you're trying to make still does come across. The games are decided on the court, not on paper.

Switching gears, not that it was surprising to see the Spurs move on, but I'm kinda disappointed in the Nuggets. They didn't show up in game 2 and effectively gave games 3 and 4 away. Spurs did what good teams do: win the winnable games.

I don't see Seattle knocking San Antonio off (although I was really pleased to see them smoke the Kings with such ease), but it should be a competitive series. Spurs probably take it in 5 or 6.

[YankeeDoodle]

Originally posted by #99
You've gotta believe that Dallas/Houston is going seven games. This is excellent news for the Suns who just swept through Memphis. Can you imagine how drained the winner of the Mavs/Rockets series will be and then realize that they will have to run -- and I mean RUN -- with Phoenix? Oy, recipe for trouble, right there.


OH C'MON...Memphis was actually whip up a sweat for Phoenix? Yeah, right. :rolleyes:

This series was clearly the most entertaining, of both conferenes, on paper, and it didn't disappoint.

The Mavs have a better defense than the Suns...actually have one, and the Rockets will look to slow down the pace. Both of these teams have a bench - and if Suns get into 6 or 7 games, they will be worn out.

Whoever comes out of Dallas/Houston (me hopes it's the Rockets!) has gotten a tough battle - they're mentally tough, and they still have what, four days to rest? That's plenty.

As for the current series tomorrow - I look for Yao and Nowitzki to show up. Both had flashes, some good games...but they've both not been spectaular. I think that'll end tomorrow, at least for one of them, and the team that has their superstar break through will win (of course Rockets can now win with their bench).

[doublee]

Interesting, no Yao in the 4th quarter last night. The team seemed to play better with Mutombo, Barry, and James on the floor as opposed to Yao, Sura, and Wesley. T-Mac has been phenomenal but they will have a hard time winning tomorrow if the rest of the starters only go for 19 points.

[Marc]

doublee, do you think that means the Rockets and T-Mac are better without Yao? He's talented, but let's face it: in some cases, throwing it in to a big center like that can slow down a team that excels at the fastbreak and uptempo game. Of course, Shaq and other dominant centers being the exception ... LOL.

[Shawndo]

Well, the Rockets certainly seemed better with Mutombo instead of Yao down the stretch... I could tell Van Gundy was considering putting him back in but things were going well with Mutombo on the floor and he didn't want to tip the boat.

Yao has definitely disappointed me in this series. If I were the Rockets' owner, I would get Yao to sign off on an "Intensity Training" course, and then just basically subject him to people slapping him and pissing him off until he breaks and becomes an animal.

He's still just too damned polite, and when you're under the boards in the NBA you have to growl, slobber, and be a goddamned pit bull if you want to get anything done. Look at Ben Wallace, Yao... study that man... and do some freakin bench presses and hardcore treadmill.

[trayhezy]

Originally posted by Shawndo
Well, the Rockets certainly seemed better with Mutombo instead of Yao down the stretch... I could tell Van Gundy was considering putting him back in but things were going well with Mutombo on the floor and he didn't want to tip the boat.

I loved the defensive intensity that Mutombo brought down the stretch, especially at his advanced age. What is he, like 90?


Originally posted by Shawndo

He's still just too damned polite, and when you're under the boards in the NBA you have to growl, slobber, and be a goddamned pit bull if you want to get anything done. Look at Ben Wallace, Yao... study that man... and do some freakin bench presses and hardcore treadmill.

I think a lot of this comes down to culture differences. I have said the same about Dirk being a finesse player when he should battle more down low. The European and Asian players were taught the game by finesse and solid fundamentals. Most of them would rather face up and shoot rather than post up and bang down low. On the other hand most American players learned on the playgrounds were the rule is "no blood no foul" so they are more accustomed to rougher play and battling under the boards IMO.

Originally posted by Shawndo

Yao has definitely disappointed me in this series. If I were the Rockets' owner, I would get Yao to sign off on an "Intensity Training" course, and then just basically subject him to people slapping him and pissing him off until he breaks and becomes an animal.

Maybe you could develop and offer this "Intensity Training" course to the NBA teams. I would like to sign up Pau Gasol and I would like to get a job as his slapper. For slappin Pau I would work for minimum wage.

[doublee]

Originally posted by Marc
doublee, do you think that means the Rockets and T-Mac are better without Yao? He's talented, but let's face it: in some cases, throwing it in to a big center like that can slow down a team that excels at the fastbreak and uptempo game. Of course, Shaq and other dominant centers being the exception ... LOL.

I don't know that is necessarily the case in general although Dikembe is probably the better of the two to have out there down the stretch in close games. Dikembe has a ton of postseason experience and can still play lockdown defense for small stretches of games. He also brings that warrior mentality that he owns the paint that Yao is still lacking at this point. I know the one biggest criticism coming from the Rockets I have heard on Yao is his conditioning. The guy is still only playing 30 minutes per game and regressed this year as opposed to last. I have heard from commentators in the past that the Rockets would rather he stay in the states for the summer rather than going back home to China because he tends to end up doing more PR stuff for the government when he is not playing for the national team than actually having enough time to work on improving his game.

But, I would say the Rockets are probably a better team with James and Barry on the floor as opposed to Sura and Wesley. If the game is close tonight down the stretch I would not be at all surprised to see James, Barry, and Dik on the floor.

Another thing I meant to mention before is how about the lockdown D T-Mac is playing on Dirk? He has held Dirk to a .351 FG% which is .108 below his season average. He had Dirk so frustrated in the fourth quarter of game six. Not only is T-Mac scoring 30+ every game but he is holding one of the league's best scorers in check who also happens to have four inches on him in the height category.

[Shawndo]

Tray.... LOL! totally agreed man.. :) yeah Mutombo sure is giving some quality minutes at his age!

Doublee... agreed, I would rather see James & Barry on the floor than Wesley & Sura as well. They just seemed to have stepped it up more in this series.
T-Mac is definitely "leaving it all on the floor", like he says, and I have been very very impressed. We'll see tonight if he has what it takes to go to the next level in more ways than one. Go Rockets! :D

[doublee]

Geeze, I see T-Mac and Yao showed up to play but someone forgot to remind the rest of the Rockets' they had a game tonight. It is a shame to see T-Mac lay it all out there in this series only to see his teammates, other than Yao, get lost on the way to the arena.

[Shawndo]

Yeah the Rockets just didn't have nearly the supporting cast that Dallas has. Dallas just has too many weapons for Houston, a younger team, and a great coach. I really like Avery Johnson.

Houston needs some more pieces in there and more training for Yao. I feel bad for T-Mac too...

[doublee]

Hard to believe that folks would be feeling bad for T-Mac this year. Last year at this time I don't think anyone would have been feeling too bad for the guy. But, he has really won me over this year with his play.

Say what you want about him, but, I think not having Juwan Howard hamstrung them a bit. I know he is not the greatest player in the world but he is far better than Scott Padgett and Ryan Bowen.

I also like Avery Johnson as a head coach. He really whipped the Mavs into shape and had them playing good ball coming into the playoffs.

[The Executioner]

I thought Houstons line up was messed up. They had two guards, To SFs and a Center. So basically T-mac was covering Newitski, this was not exploited. But it may have opened up other spots. So Dallas excapes the series with a win but have to be afraid about Newitskis play. Especeally having no one of his size covering him.

[doublee]

McGrady locked Nowitzki up plain and simple. He deserves all the credit in the world he harrassed Dirk the whole series and never let him get into any kind of a rhythm offensively. T-Mac was in his jersey the entire series. The only thing Dirk can do is tip his cap to T-Mac he got the best of him in that particular match up.

I am not sure what you mean about Houston's lineup being messed up. Scott Padgett is a PF, they were not playing with two SF's out there. He may play a little more on the perimter than most PFs do but he is big enough to play the position defensively. Given that Nowitzki is the PF having a perimeter PF may be a bonus as it pulls him out away from the basket on defense. My point was one of not having Howard forces Padgett and Bowen into starting roles where they are used to coming off the bench.

[YankeeDoodle]

Originally posted by Marc
doublee, do you think that means the Rockets and T-Mac are better without Yao? He's talented, but let's face it: in some cases, throwing it in to a big center like that can slow down a team that excels at the fastbreak and uptempo game. Of course, Shaq and other dominant centers being the exception ... LOL.


No, in fact the Rockets are trying to secure Yao right now. It's been three years, and he is *progressing* - he has to deal with obligations that other players do not - mainly contractual obligations with China - he has to play there in the summer whereas Yao has expressed wishes to train and condition more in the offseason (he'd still play in the "big" games).

I couldn't watch it after the 3rd. It got ugly.

It is a style difference from the China to U.S. - I mean...Yao, taking charges are for guards. YOU TAKE POSITIONING! :D

I think if Houston gets a PG, one who is accustemed and more natural at the position, then they have all the pieces. Or maybe one more...forward or something. But asking Sura, McGrady, and others to run the point was exhausting to those who don't the "natural instincts" - hey, I respected the grit, but after awhile it's not going to be enough.

Congrats to Dallas for the win; the Suns-Mavs should be interesting.