|10-09-2013, 06:37 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 6 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 7-7. Season totals: 39-34-4, Pct. .532. Best Bets: 8-5-2, Pct. .600.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
CHICAGO 26, N.Y. Giants 23 (+9 1/2) - The Giants must be pretty rotten if they knocked Michael Vick out of the game before halftime and still lost to the Eagles at home by 15, right? But the Bears have been pretty rotten at home of late, at least when it comes to money matters: 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five dating back to last December, and the Giants are 4-0 both ways in Chicago since last losing there in 1991. True, we have already seen two similar streaks get broken this year - both involving San Diego; yet the Chargers covered the spread in both of them, and so will the Giants if they don't turn the ball over any more - just the same amount.
N.Y. JETS 23, Pittsburgh 10 (+1) - But why only one point? And the Jets are 3-4 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in their last seven versus the Steelers, after having gone 1-9 and 0-10 respectively in the ten before that. And when Mike Tomlin looks across the sideline at Santonio Holmes, it will be a timely reminder that perhaps Tomlin shouldn't get rid of every player he so much as has the slightest beef with (see also Rashard Mendenhall, who has rushed for 219 yards at Arizona so far this year; Pittsburgh's leading rusher, if you can call him that, is retread Felix Jones, with 74).
Cincinnati 20, BUFFALO 0 (+9 1/2) - Their win over New England last week may have been a take-off game for the Bengals (much like the Colts' upset at Candlestick three weeks ago is proving to be one for them) - and it will be a long time before they get tired of beating the Bills after snapping a ten-game losing streak to Buffalo in the last meeting (in 2011). Thaddeus Lewis? Even Matt Flynn (cut by Oakland Monday in a situation that has "personality conflict" written all over it) would have been a vastly superior alternative, to say nothing of Josh Freeman, who the Vikings have signed. But you know Ralph Wilson - he just loves to pinch those pennies.
Philadelphia 23, TAMPA BAY 14 (+2) - After coming away with the blue ribbon at the Bergen County Fair last Sunday, look for the Eagles to take home the same prize from the Hillsborough County Fair this Sunday. And don't even worry about Michael Vick's hamstring, since all that does is return Nick Foles to the scene of his only win as an NFL starter.
CLEVELAND 14 (+3), Detroit 10 - At least Brandon Weeden has actually won a few games in the NFL, while the Lions have won only a few games on natural grass over the past dozen-plus years - they're 12-51 straight up thereon since 2001! Detroit may also be without Calvin Johnson (knee).
BALTIMORE 27 (+3), Green Bay 17 - The Ravens are showing a whole lot of grit and determination - and with the home team in this series a perfect 4-for-4 by a combined 134-50 since Art Modell moved the franchise from Cleveland, and the home side also having both won and covered the last eight Green Bay games going back to late last year, don't bet against that continuing. You should bet on it, in fact - and do so copiously.
MINNESOTA 24, Carolina 7 (+1) - How does your quarterback throw for 308 yards and you don't score a touchdown of any kind, let alone a TD passing? That was the Panthers, last Sunday - but then again, that game was indoors (the roof in Arizona was closed), as is this one; and they're 4-13 straight up and 6-10-1 against the line inside NFL domes dating back to 2008, since when Carolina is also 4-18 outright and 7-15 pointwise as a visitor on the carpet. The Vikings don't need a fully-acclimated Josh Freeman to take this one.
HOUSTON 23, St. Louis 13 (+6 1/2) - The Rams actually got outgained in total yardage by Jacksonville last week - and whether the Reliant Stadium roof is open or not, it will still be on grass, upon which the Rams are 29-51-1 straight up and 31-47-3 against the spread since moving their home digs indoors, and onto artificial turf, midway through the 1995 season.
KANSAS CITY 24, Oakland 16 (+10) - Not impressed with KC's sloppy win over a mediocre team playing without its first-string quarterback, and the Raiders have covered a staggering ten in a row at Arrowhead. Take the points.
DENVER 84, Jacksonville 13 (+27 1/2) - Where do the Jags get off telling the Broncos to "stay classy" on twitter? And not for nothing, but what's so "classy" about an organization that constantly uses its "small-market" status as an excuse for losing (even through Green Bay, which has only slightly more than one-eighth Jacksonville's population, doesn't seem to need that same excuse), and, like Buffalo, also passed on both Freeman and Flynn? P-Man & Co. should damn the pablum-pukers and pile it on - and it says here that they will do just that.
SEATTLE 24, Tennessee 0 (+13 1/2) - I can't even see Ryan Fitzpatrick scoring against a Seattle defense that has to be angry about the way it played last week in Indianapolis. Seahawks still haven't non-covered in a meaningful game at home in either of the two most recent seasons.
New Orleans 23 (+1), NEW ENGLAND 17 - If the Saints were going to lose anytime soon, it would have been last week, on grass, at a venue at which Drew Brees had never won. The soap opera in which the injured Patriots receivers have been starring all season (will they play or not?) is starting to wear thin.
SAN FRANCISCO 31, Arizona 6 (+11) - The 49ers have been just about flawless since rediscovering the joys of running the ball, and San Fran has taken seven of the last eight from 'Zona and covered in six of them. No reason to doubt.
Washington 27 (+4 1/2), DALLAS 23 - Even though these two teams have split their six head-to-head games in this decade, Washington has covered in all six and Dallas has no business being this kind of favorite in this spot. Tony Romo will probably serve up another pick with the game on the line.
Indianapolis 28, SAN DIEGO 21 (+1) - As Mike McCoy is proving in San Diego - and as Gus Bradley is proving, even more so, in Jacksonville - you get what you pay for, or more accurately, what you don't pay for. And the Colts' decision to trade for Trent Richardson has just been vindicated in a big way, as Ahmad Bradshaw has been placed on injured reserve (to undergo neck surgery; what is it with necks in Indiana?), putting his season in the same position as that of the federal government - shut down, for the duration.
BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON
One of our political parties doesn't know the difference between non-sectarianism and secularism, while the other doesn't know the difference between individualism and selfishness. And you have to ask why there are so many independents?
Last edited by Anthony; 10-12-2013 at 03:47 AM.
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