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Old 11-13-2013, 06:55 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 11 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-4-1. Season totals: 71-71-5, Pct. .500. Best Bets: 14-14-2, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis
27, TENNESSEE 0 (+2 1/2) - Jake Locker's season ended last Sunday with the dreaded Lis Franc foot injury, so our old friend Ryan Fitzpatrick is back; and if Fitzpatrick couldn't beat the previously-winless Jaguars then how can you expect him to even be competitive against the AFC South-leading Colts?


SUNDAY

BUFFALO
24, N.Y. Jets 14 (+1) - Inconsistency? The 2013 Jets transcend the genre, going win-loss-win-loss all year long, and they won their most recent game before last week's bye. They are also 4-1 at home and 1-3 on the road, and look for improvement from E.J. Manuel in his second game back from a knee injury, and his first at home.

Washington 23 (+3), PHILADELPHIA 16 - And the Redskins can be characterized as "Jets Lite," in that they have alternated wins and losses since an 0-3 start, and lost their last game; and before trading nose tackle Issac Sopoaga to New England the Eagles were allowing 99.5 yards rushing per game, and 154.5 in the two games since the deal. So make Alfred Morris your fantasy hero as he leads the way in sending Philly to their eleventh consecutive loss at home (where they neglected to score an offensive touchdown in either of their last two games) both ways.

PITTSBURGH 20 (+2 1/2), Detroit 14 - Wouldn't you know that when the Lions finally snapped their 19-game cold-weather losing streak, that they would do so without covering the spread? And that makes Detroit 15-23-1 against the line since 1994 as a visitor in cold weather, of which 10-19-1 in "Triple Witching Hour" games (outdoors, on natural grass, and in cold weather, for a domed-stadium team). Plus they haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1955! A letdown awaits them after their potentially deal-breaking win in the NFC North.

TAMPA BAY 21 (+2), Atlanta 20 - You can't do a whole lot about injuries. But lack of effort is not acceptable under any circumstances - and that's what we're seeing from the Falcons, who are also 0-4 both outright and pointwise on the road, this year. It may be time for Arthur Blank to can Mike Smith.

Arizona 24, JACKSONVILLE 16 (+6 1/2) - Not doing cartwheels about laying this much on Carson Palmer and the Cardinals, especially way from the desert, but Jacksonville is 2-9 against the spread at home in 2012-13 while going 7-6 versus the points on the road.

CINCINNATI 21, Cleveland 17 (+6) - The Bengals aren't good enough to run away with any division, not even this year's depleted AFC North, and they're a league-worst 2-12 straight up in fatigue games since the "bye era" began in 1990 so there is no reason not to at least take the points.

Baltimore 13 (+3 1/2), CHICAGO 10 - Jay Cutler was "one and done" coming off a groin injury, this time sustaining the infamous high ankle sprain, forcing the Bears to clown around again at quarterback, with Josh McClown - oops, I mean McCown. And that number makes the Ravens all the more attractive in this spot, because it means that the Bears could win by a field goal instead and not cover it.

HOUSTON 17, Oakland 13 (+7) - On Monday night, one of this season's accidental starting quarterbacks, Mike Glennon, broke his maiden as an NFL starter. So now it's time for the other one, Case Keenum, to break his, right? But this line is too high and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Houston over the weekend - and why is that important? Because that would close the Reliant Stadium roof, and the Raiders have covered four in a row indoors.

MIAMI 23 (+1), San Diego 21 - Yeah, I know, two yards rushing by the Dolphins on Monday night - but I also know that the Chargers haven't won at either of the "Orange Bowls" since 1981. And it must be said: San Diego defensive end Corey Liuget's actions at the end of last week's game speak a whole lot louder than Washington safety Brandon Meriweather's words, while driving home exactly the same point.

N.Y. GIANTS 20, Green Bay 10 (+7) - If the Eagles could beat Terrelle Pryor and Scott Tolzien on the road in back-to-back games, then why can't the Giants beat Pryor and Tolzien at home in back-to-back games?

NEW ORLEANS 31, San Francisco 24 (+3) - Never mind repeating in the NFC West - the 49ers are in danger of missing the playoffs entirely if they don't turn things around, and soon. But the Saints have been impossible to go against at home so far this season.

SEATTLE 34, Minnesota 13 (+13 1/2) - And while the 49ers continue to struggle, particularly in passing offense which is pretty much the be-all-and-end-all in today's game, the Seahawks, who righted their ship in a big way last week, will take a huge step toward breaking the division wide open. Since a win in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day of 2000, the Vikings have gone 27-48-3 against the spread outdoors.

DENVER 27, Kansas City 21 (+8) - Andy Reid first time off the bye in KC after going 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread doing that in Philly (16-1 and 12-5 counting playoffs); and after seeing how other NFL quarterbacks; e.g., Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, have done trying to play through injuries this year, I'd say there is enough doubt about how Peyton Manning will fare here in that situation to give Fat Boy and his gaudy post-bye form the benefit of the doubt and at least take the Chiefs to cover.


MONDAY NIGHT

New England
24 (+2 1/2), CAROLINA 20 - The Patriots receivers are finally healthy again and with this line they're practically getting down on their knees and begging you to take Carolina. But I say this may be too much, too soon for the Panthers.


BEST BETS: INDIANAPOLIS, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH
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Last edited by Anthony; 11-13-2013 at 09:43 AM.
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