|11-27-2013, 07:34 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 13 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 5-8-1. Season totals: 86-83-7, Pct. .509. Best Bets: 17-17-2, Pct. .500.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with points in bold.
DETROIT 23, Green Bay 20 (+5) - Four days after the Steelers were underdogs at Cleveland for the first time since 2003, the Lions find themselves favored on Thanksgiving for the first time since 2000. No Aaron Rodgers for at least one more game, but Matt Flynn hung 480 yards and six TDs on Detroit in a game two years ago that the Packers didn't even need to win, and Green Bay's 15-1 straight-up and 12-3-1 spread record in the last 16 meetings has to count for something. Take the points.
DALLAS 34, Oakland 14 (+8 1/2) - Tony Romo is 14-1 straight up, albeit a modest 9-6 against the spread, lifetime at home in November, while Oakland's current nine-game losing streak to NFC teams includes only two covers. I suppose a letdown is possible for the Cowboys after their gutsy win at chilly MetLife Stadium to complete a sweep of the Giants, but I'm just not feelin' it.
Pittsburgh 16 (+2 1/2), BALTIMORE 13 - Even when they were 0-4 I had a feeling that the Steelers would have a second act this year, and they have covered four of their last five on this stage so to speak. In a situation reminiscent of last week's Tom Brady-Peyton Manning matchup, look for Ben Roethlisberger to continue his personal domination of Joe Flacco (this will make Big Ben 8-2 against Flacco head-to-head).
N.Y. JETS 20, Miami 14 (+3) - Back-to-back brutal showings by Geno Smith - but both of them were on the road, where the Jets are 1-5 this year. Well they're 4-1 at home, with wins over no less than the Saints and the Pats in their last two, while Miami is 14-34 straight up since 1995 as a visitor in cold weather.
PHILADELPHIA 33, Arizona 23 (+3 1/2) - The Cards may have a four-game winning streak (three of them over the three teams who are tied for the lead in the race for the top draft pick in 2014), but they're even worse in the elements than the Dolphins - as in 3-17 outright and even 6-14 pointwise in this millennium - plus they're weakest (3-10 both ways in fatigue games) where the Eagles are strongest (13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the line since 1999 following a bye). Chip Kelly as a best bet. What is the world coming to?
CAROLINA 24, Tampa Bay 13 (+8 1/2) - See what Cam Newton can do when he actually gets some meaningful support from the rest of his team for a change? Panthers are too hot to go against right now.
CLEVELAND 20, Jacksonville 10 (+7) - Just when Jason Campbell was showing something, he had to get a concussion, so now it's back to Brandon Weeden for the third time this season. But the home team in this one has won and covered the last three and Jacksonville has lost five in a row as a visitor in cold weather (with one cover) and eight of nine (two covers) since 2008.
INDIANAPOLIS 35, Tennessee 13 (+4) - The Colts continue to be morbidly undervalued by the oddsmakers in the Andrew Luck Era, during which the Colts are 8-0 both ways coming off a loss. The head-to-head mismatch of Luck versus Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst the sports world has seen since the Larry Holmes-Scott Frank boxing debacle of three decades ago.
Chicago 24 (+1), MINNESOTA 20 - One-point underdogs to the 4-6 Rams is one thing - but to the 2-8-1 Vikings whom the Bears have beaten seven out of eight and covered in six of them? And wouldn't it be something if last week's tie keeps both Green Bay out of the playoffs and Minnesota out of next spring's top draft pick?
New England 31, HOUSTON 14 (+7 1/2) - A highly interesting betting proposition would be a wager on what happens first: Gary Kubiak goes back to Matt Schaub or turns to T.J. Yates at quarterback, or Bob McNair decides that this charade has gone far enough and fires Kubiak.
Atlanta 27 (+3 1/2), BUFFALO 20 - The Falcons showed definite signs of life against the Saints last Thursday night, and the fact that it was on Thursday night serves to mitigate Buffalo's Week 12 bye; plus this one is indoors (at Toronto) - the latter fact of potential importance not only because the Falcons are a dome team, but also because the Bills are 7-16 against the line in domes dating back to 1999, and have been outscored 86-34 in their last two, including a 51-17 loss to Seattle north of the border last year.
SAN FRANCISCO 45, St. Louis 10 (+9 1/2) - In Week 4, on a Thursday night, the Rams got plastered by San Fran 35-11 in St. Louis, with Sam Bradford at quarterback. Need I say more? But I will anyway: Since moving into their present indoor home, which is on its third different name since they did so midway through the 1995 season, the Rams are 40-67-3 against the line outdoors, and 32-48-3 versus the points on grass.
Denver 37, KANSAS CITY 20 (+3) - Either the Chiefs peaked too early, or their defense never was much when not facing tomato-can quarterbacks. And it is significant that both of Denver's losses this year (and three of their four non-covers) were on artificial turf, and this game isn't.
Cincinnati 34 (+1 1/2), SAN DIEGO 27 - The Bengals are 6-17-1 straight up off the bye (they tied Philadelphia in 2008), but the AFC North is theirs to lose and they have both covered three in a row over San Diego, and three straight at San Diego. Chargers on letdown watch after thrilling upset division win.
N.Y. Giants 24, WASHINGTON 14 (+1 1/2) - It looked for all the world as if Washington just plain quit in the second half Monday night. At this point, Mike Shanahan needs out of the NFC in general, and the NFC East in particular, even more than Jonathan Martin needs out of Miami. The almost-certainly soon-to-be-vacant Houston job could be the ideal landing spot for the two-time Super Bowl ring-wearer.
SEATTLE 37, New Orleans 31 (+4 1/2) - They saved the biggest game - and the hardest to evaluate - for last: The Seahawks have the worst post-bye record in the entire league, whether one goes by straight up where they're 6-18, or against the spread where they're an even worse 4-18-2. But the Saints, for their part, have covered only one of five on the road this year, and just eight of 22 outdoors in this decade; in addition, how both teams fared against the same team, at the same venue (Atlanta), and only 11 days apart, cannot be ignored. Russell Wilson just might be able to out-explode Drew Brees in this battle of toy-cannon quarterbacks.
BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
Last edited by Anthony; 11-27-2013 at 12:32 PM.
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