|12-12-2013, 03:53 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 15 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 8-8. Season totals: 103-98-7, Pct. .512. Best Bets: 20-20-2, Pct. .500.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
DENVER 34, San Diego 20 (+10) - The Broncos need 85 points in their last three games to become the first NFL team ever to score 600 in a season - and even after hanging 51 on the Titans at home last week, Peyton Manning might want to get in some more productive reps in the cold in his last regular-season home game.
Seattle 21, N.Y. GIANTS 17 (+6 1/2) - Last road game of the regular season for the Seahawks - and in order to make it their last road game altogether they need to win only two of their last three. But truth be told, their receivers are average at best, at least until Percy Harvin is finally unveiled, and Seattle is an unappetizing 13-39 straight up and 21-31 against the line since 1986 as a visitor in cold weather, so take the points in what shapes up as a surprisingly competitive week for non-contending home underdogs.
ATLANTA 24, Washington 10 (+3 1/2) - It's official: Mike Shanahan has thrown in the towel (probably in more ways than one), shutting down RG3 for the season - and even if he hadn't, Washington is 2-10 outright and 4-8 pointwise in domes since 2009 and has dropped three straight to the Falcons both ways.
New England 20, MIAMI 13 (+2 1/2) - It is reckless to write the Pats off just because Rob Gronkowski is out again (and this time for the season), and they've beaten Miami seven in a row by an average of over 17 points a game, making New England a bargain at this determinedly favorite-friendly number.
JACKSONVILLE 13 (+2), Buffalo 10 - There's simply no percentage in laying points with the Bills on natural grass when they only win one out of three on grass - and if a second-place finish in a division means anything to any team, it's the Jaguars, who host the Titans, who they have already beaten on the road this year, next week with the AFC South runner-up spot very likely on the line.
San Francisco 16, TAMPA BAY 14 (+5) - The 49ers have come down with a bad case of field goal-itis and have been outscored 79-15 in their last three trips to Tampa (not having won there since 1993), all of them losses and non-covers. Add in the very real possibility of a letdown after spoiling Seattle's bid to clinch the NFC West at their house, and this is another eliminated home underdog that roars against a playoff contender.
Chicago 24 (+2), CLEVELAND 14 - The Bears might as well keep Josh McCown in there for one more game even if Jay Cutler is just barely healthy enough to return this week. True, McCown did lose at St. Louis and Minnesota, but this one's on grass, where Chicago is 3-1 both ways on the road in the last calendar year, as opposed to 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the line as a visitor on the carpet. No way the Browns should be favored in this one.
INDIANAPOLIS 35, Houston 13 (+6) - It's Andrew Luck coming off a loss again - and it's the Texans at Indy, where they're 0-11 lifetime by an average of just under 14 points per outing, and Houston is 1-9-1 against the spread on artificial turf the past three years. Even though the Colts - who clinched the wretched AFC South last week when Tennessee lost - are pretty much now locked into the fourth seed in the AFC playoffs, this is still best-bet material.
Philadelphia 26, MINNESOTA 23 (+4) - No quit in these Vikings, and Adrian Peterson may be in there after all. If their defense can contain LeSean McCoy, this is another out-of-it home underdog that can cover.
CAROLINA 27, N.Y. Jets 7 (+10 1/2) - If the Jets weren't so hapless on the road, the Panthers might be risky business in this sandwich situation (lost at New Orleans last week, hosting the Saints next week) and the home team is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the series. Jets are also 3-7 against the line on grass since 2011.
Kansas City 21, OAKLAND 14 (+3 1/2) - After a fairly promising start, the Raiders appear to have snuffed it, and there's no point in critically-endangered Oakland head coach Dennis Allen risking sending his banged-up running backs back out there prematurely, unless he honestly believes that to do so will somehow save his job.
Arizona 20, TENNESSEE 10 (+3) - The Cardinals won't go away, although their only real hope is that the Seahawks have nothing to play for when they travel to Seattle next week - which actually can happen, with a Seattle win over the Giants plus losses by both the 49ers and Saints. These teams have alternated beating each other the last four times they've played, and the Titans won the last meeting (in 2009).
New Orleans 19, ST. LOUIS 16 (+5 1/2) - The Saints are caught in the same potential letdown/looking ahead squeeze as the Panthers, but their 1-5 spread record on the road in 2013, including a non-cover indoors at Atlanta three Thursday nights ago, makes them much more vulnerable than Carolina to a possible upset. So take the out-of-contention home underdog yet again.
DALLAS 33, Green Bay 17 (+7) - Yeah I know, Tony Romo in December - but this line tells you all you need to know about Aaron Rodgers' chances of returning, and Green Bay's recent form in Dallas couldn't be sorrier: Nine consecutive losses (last win there - 1989), outscored 297-168, all nine losses by double digits. Cowboys may need wins here and at Washington next week, otherwise they could already be eliminated before they even take the field at home against the Eagles in the season finale.
Cincinnati 27, PITTSBURGH 13 (+3) - The Bengals can make things a lot easier on themselves by winning here and at home against Minnesota next week, so that they can go into their season-ending home game against Baltimore with the AFC North wrapped up. And does Mike Tomlin have something to worry about as regards his job security?
DETROIT 31, Baltimore 21 (+6) - Throw out last Sunday's Blizzard Bowl. The Lions should get back on track here to become just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs both the year before and the year after a 4-12 or worse season in a series that has not seen a road victory since 1983 (0-7 straight up, 1-6 against the spread, outscored by an even 100 points in the last five), and against a team that has played poorly indoors for a very long time (only five wins in the last 19).
BEST BETS: CHICAGO, INDIANAPOLIS, DALLAS
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
Last edited by Anthony; 12-13-2013 at 06:29 AM.
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