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Old 09-13-2017, 08:16 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 2 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 4-11. Season totals: 4-11, Pct. .267. Best Bets: 1-2, Pct. .333.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Houston
16 (+3), CINCINNATI 0 - Wow, that didn't take very long - for Deshaun Watson to get the starting job at quarterback for the Texans, who have won seven of their last eight over the Bengals, covering in six. And another shutout loss by Andy Dalton (and since 2007, teams getting shut out are 18-32 straight up and 21-28-1 against the spread in their next game) facing the best defense in the league makes him the first quarterback since Bill Troup in 1978 to get shut out twice to start a season (Troup was filling in for the injured Bert Jones of the then-Baltimore Colts).


SUNDAY

PITTSBURGH
24, Minnesota 14 (+6 1/2) - A lot of teams, and individual players, will be moving up in company coming off wins or big efforts in their opener - and the Vikings and Sam Bradford qualify on both counts and dating all the way back to 2001 Minnesota is 24-56-1 straight up and 36-43-2 against the line as a visitor on the grass and 24-56-1 outright and 39-56-3 pointwise as a visitor outdoors.

CAROLINA 21, Buffalo 10 (+7) - Cam Newton has had his once-over and the Bills have struggled on grass for the longest time - 35-71 straight up and 44-60-2 against the spread since 1995.

JACKSONVILLE 17 (P), Tennessee 13 - The average NFL team scored 20.2 points in Week 1, and the league is complaining about how "low-scoring" the week was. Well throughout the entire 1977 season the average team scored 17.2 - and while I'm still not sold on either Blake Bortles or Doug Marrone, the home team in this series has won six in a row, and covered in five straight.

TAMPA BAY 27, Chicago 16 (+6) - Bears went 0-8 on the road last year, including a 36-10 loss at The New Sombrero. And it shouldn't take much of an effort for even Tampa Bay's defense to spoil Mike Glennon's return.

INDIANAPOLIS 21 (+7 1/2), Arizona 20 - The Colts in general, and The Hobbit in particular, are easy to make fun of right now - but the Cards' form in Indianapolis, where they haven't won since 1984, and their recent performance in games with 1:00 starts - seven losses and non-covers in a row and outscored 241-142 - make them even easier to make fun of; and Arizona's "batting average" on artificial turf since 2002 (22-45 straight up, .328) wouldn't win either league's batting title if the baseball season ended today, and with David Johnson out at least two months with a serious wrist injury this is the week's upset special.

BALTIMORE 30, Cleveland 10 (+7) - The Ravens are 16-2 straight up and 13-5 against the spread versus Cleveland in the Joe Flacco era, and the Browns have lost 13 straight on the road, with a 4-9 spread record therein. No problem.

New England 34, NEW ORLEANS 21 (+6 1/2) - Tom Brady is entitled to a mulligan - especially indoors, where he's 19-6 straight up and 16-7-2 against the spread lifetime, and with four extra days of preparation time (the Patriots played a Thursday night game last week while the Saints played a Monday night game, which is crazy).

KANSAS CITY 19, Philadelphia 17 (+4 1/2) - The Eagles are 3-1 both ways lifetime at Arrowhead, including an outright upset as a 17-point underdog in 1972 and overcoming an 18-point deficit to win in 2005, and in 2016-17 they're 3-1 against the spread on the road on natural grass compared with 0-5 on artificial turf. Take the points - and stranger things have happened than if the Chiefs spend the ten days they have to prepare for this game reading the press clippings from their knocking off the Patriots and blow this game outright.

OAKLAND 33, N.Y. Jets 14 (+13 1/2) - The Jets lose by nine as an eight-point underdog and it's a moral victory! That's the state to which the Jets have sunk - and the home team in this series has won the last four (3-1 against the spread, the lone non-cover by half a point) and 13 of the last 16 (9-5-2 against the spread). Furthermore, the Jets are 9-16 straight up and 10-15 against the spread on grass since 2011.

Miami 27 (+5), L.A. CHARGERS 20 - It's just a matter of personnel. Miami's is clearly better - and the Dolphins had a bye last week while the Chargers played on Monday night.

Washington 23 (+2 1/2), L.A. RAMS 17 - Again a case of the team with the better personnel as an underdog - and Kirk Cousins is a huge step up for the Rams defense from who they faced in the opener.

DENVER 17 (+1 1/2), Dallas 14 - The Broncos are on the road in only one of the first six weeks - four of their first five games are at home, plus they have a bye in Week 5 - so a fast start is essential if they are to have any chance against the Raiders and Chiefs in the rugged AFC West. They have, however, beaten Dallas five in a row. Looks like the low-scoring trend of Week 1 will continue.

SEATTLE 45, San Francisco 7 (+13) - The Seahawks have beaten the 49ers seven in a row (6-1 against the spread) and nine of the last eleven (10-1 against the spread), while San Francisco has lost eight in a row with a 1-7 spread record in the eight losses as a visitor on the carpet. Kyle Shanahan may be the new David Shula.

Green Bay 31 (+3), ATLANTA 27 - The shaky Falcon defense, which even last season ranked 25th overall, 17th against the run, and 28th against the pass, moves way up in company here from what they met in the opener, and Atlanta's 44-21 win at home in last year's NFC title game snapped a five-game no-cover streak for the home team in this series.


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. GIANTS
23, Detroit 13 (+4 1/2) - Hopefully Odell Beckham Jr. will be back in time to pick apart the worst secondary in NFL history, and the Lions have been outscored by a combined 114-66 in their last five outdoors, all losses.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, N.Y. GIANTS
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Last edited by Anthony; 09-21-2017 at 10:28 AM.
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