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Old 10-04-2017, 09:54 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 5 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-8. Season totals: 32-30, Pct. .516. Best Bets: 6-6, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

New England
24, TAMPA BAY 10 (+4) - How do you give up ten points in your last three games against a team? Well the Patriots have done just that against the Bucs, outscoring them 86-10 in the last three meetings - and after years of struggles on grass, New England was 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread on it last year.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
20, L.A. Chargers 14 (+3) - Remember the "O.J. Bowl" between the 0-6 Eagles and the 0-6 Steelers in 1968? Well this one can be dubbed the "Saquon Barkley Bowl" - and the Giants' presence therein is a devastating sermon on the evils of letting immediate needs go unaddressed, as the Giants pretty much did at both running back and the offensive line in both the 2017 draft and free agency.

N.Y. Jets 16 (+2), CLEVELAND 13 - Been a while since the Browns won or covered as favorites - you have to go all the way back to September 20, 2015 to find the most recent instance - and the Jets have beaten Cleveland four in a row. Todd Bowles - Coach Of The Year timber? Who knew!

PHILADELPHIA 24, Arizona 20 (+6) - The Cardinals finally got off the dime in 1:00 games four weeks ago, and they are 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in their last six versus the Eagles, whose new-found running game will face a stern test going up against an Arizona run defense that has yet to allow even a team 100-yard rushing game in 2017. Stir in a 12-7 outright and 11-7-1 pointwise record outdoors since 2013 and you have a recipe for a point-taking in the "Carson Bowl."

PITTSBURGH 23, Jacksonville 17 (+8 1/2) - Instead of worrying about who is going to stand and who is going to take a knee while the national anthem is played, Mike Tomlin should be setting mouse traps all over the locker room this week - because this is a "trap game" from the word "Go": Coming off a win over their only realistic rival in the AFC North last week, and with, adapting an old hockey term, a "five-point game" coming up next week at Kansas City with the AFC's top playoff seed quite possibly hanging in the balance. Home team in this series has also taken the collar against the spread in the last five games.

MIAMI 16 (+3), Tennessee 0 - You gotta feel for the Miami defense: 40 points allowed in their last two games, including 20 to Drew Brees and the Saints in London last week - and neither game was even competitive. After Marcus Mariota went down in Houston, Matt Cassel had an 8.3 passer rating. Eight point three! Upset special in the first pure home game this season for the Dolphins.

CINCINNATI 24, Buffalo 17 (+2 1/2) - The Bengals are "priced to buy," and have the definitive quarterback advantage (but wouldn't if this were a playoff game - although that's a subject for a different time). And here's an interesting stat: In their first two games, in which their offense scored nine points and no touchdowns, the Bengals' defense allowed 325 yards rushing; in their last two, their offense has scored 55 points and seven touchdowns, and their defense has allowed 109 yards rushing.

DETROIT 28, Carolina 23 (+3) - Yes, the Panthers did win on the carpet last week - but this is a "Double Trouble" game, in that it is indoors as well, and Carolina is 10-17 straight up and 10-16-1 against the line inside NFL domes since 2008. Lions are averaging a good, for them, 97 yards rushing a game this year.

INDIANAPOLIS 20, San Francisco 17 (+1 1/2) - One of the examples Billy Joel used for 1959 in We Didn't Start The Fire was "Edsel is a no-go." Well the 49ers, with their nine-game losing streak on rugs, are a most emphatic no-go on artificial turf.

L.A. RAMS 31, Seattle 24 (+1) - The Seahawks may have reached a takeoff stage, as Walt Rostow put it, with Sunday night's smashing win over the Colts. But they have non-covered five in a row against the Rams on the road, and their ability to win a shootout with anybody must be questioned. That's why there are two built-in parlays on this game: Rams and the over, and Seahawks and the under (the total opened at 46).

Baltimore 13 (+1), OAKLAND 3 - The way Joe Flacco is, to put it generously to a fault, struggling, this is the only kind of game the Ravens are capable of winning right now - facing a team that has absolutely no offense, a state to which Derek Carr's transverse process fracture has reduced the Raiders, unless of course they decide to light a powder keg by signing Colin Kaepernick. Assuming they don't, look for Baltimore to shove eight in the box on essentially every play to stop "Little Beast Mode" - Marshawn Lynch, Philadelphia's LeGarrette Blount being "Big Beast Mode" - and make E.J. Manuel beat them. And Manuel won't.

Green Bay 37 (+2 1/2), DALLAS 34 - True, the Packers are "priced to sell" - but after having gone 13-1 straight up and 12-2 against the spread from 1993 to 2010, the home team in this series is 2-3 and 1-4 respectively since. And here's a trend that bears watching: Teams coming off either a bye week or a Thursday night game are 8-0 against the spread thus far in 2017.

HOUSTON 27 (+1 1/2), Kansas City 20 - Coming up short: In the just-concluded baseball season, Jose Altuve led the majors with a .346 batting average - and at 5'6" became the shortest man in baseball history ever to do so. But the Chiefs come up even shorter on artificial turf, with a .333 "batting average" on it dating back to 1998 (on 16-32 straight up). And where teams coming off long weeks are flourishing this year, teams coming off short weeks are floundering - 2-6 both ways after having played a Monday night game the previous week, and only one of the eight both won and covered (Denver in Week 2).


MONDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO
16 (+3 1/2), Minnesota 10 - Like the Bengals, the Bears are "priced to buy" - and like the Packers, they are coming off a Thursday night game, and since 2002, Minnesota is 2-13 straight up and 3-10-2 against the line at Chicago. Mitchell Trubitsky's first NFL start should be a winning one.


BEST BETS: NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON, CHICAGO
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Last edited by Anthony; 10-04-2017 at 10:32 AM.
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