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Old 11-01-2017, 08:36 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-4. Season totals: 66-50-1, Pct. 568. Best Bets: 13-10-1, Pct. .563.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

Buffalo
20, N.Y. JETS 12 (+3 1/2) - After a promising start, the Jets' get-up-and-go appears to have gotten up and gone - and the Bills swept the Jets by the same score in both games in 2015. That score was 22-17 - and the Jets lost 20-12 at Orchard Park in Week 1.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
16 (+4), L.A. Rams 13 - There are three themes that will dominate the action this week. The first is "A Terrible Surprise For The NFL's Surprise Teams," the second is teams that play their home games on natural grass having to go play on artificial turf, and the third will be cold weather, whose "official" season begins with this week's games. The Rams are 12-21 straight up and 12-20-1 against the spread dating all the way back to 1992 in cold weather games, defined as any game played by a warm-weather or indoor team at a northern, outdoor site in November or later. Artificial turf has also posed serious problems for the Rams, as in 5-19 straight up and 7-14-3 when visiting on it in this decade, plus they have lost seven in a row to the Giants both straight up and against the spread. Siding with the home underdog for the upset special.

PHILADELPHIA 38, Denver 17 (+7 1/2) - Detective Lenny Briscoe once said on Law & Order that the last time he got lucky was 1986. Well the last time the Broncos got lucky in Philadelphia was also 1986 - and the home team in this series has won the last six meetings by an imposing 233-97. And Howie Roseman couldn't have found a better bargain in what he paid for Jay Ajayi if he shopped at Filene's Basement in the 1930s.

CAROLINA 24, Atlanta 20 (+1 1/2) - Unimpressed with Atlanta's win over the Jets last week, even if it was a dome team having to play on a wet field and pouring-down rain for much of the game - and it's just like last week for the Panthers: They are simply the better team in this matchup, or at least the more balanced team.

Cincinnati 13 (+3 1/2), JACKSONVILLE 10 - Another game to which the "surprise team getting a terrible surprise" narrative applies - but then again you knew that the Jaguars couldn't keep winning with Bortles & Jaymes at quarterback. The Bengals are "priced to buy," and have also won the last four in the series - but be careful here because Cincinnati's 4-13 straight-up record in fatigue games is tied (with Arizona) for the worst in the NFL.

Baltimore 24 (+4), TENNESSEE 17 - John Harbaugh, who seems like an honest man to me, is saying that Joe Flacco has "zero concussion symptoms" and expects Flacco to play here. A 9-7 record should be enough to win the AFC South for the third year in a row.

NEW ORLEANS 27, Tampa Bay 13 (+7) - It turns out that Jameis Winston is dealing with a rotator cuff issue and could be shut down for the season soon. And since 2013 Tampa Bay is 7-12-1 against the line as a visitor on the carpet and 6-11 against the line inside NFL domes.

HOUSTON 37, Indianapolis 20 (+13) - Steep number I know, but if Deshaun Watson has even half the game he had against one of the league's best defenses on the road last week, the punchless Colts won't be able to keep up well enough to cover.

SAN FRANCISCO 17 (+1), Arizona 13 - The Cardinals needed 69 minutes and change to beat the 49ers at home in Week 4 - and in that game they had Carson Palmer and San Francisco didn't have Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan finally breaks his maiden.

SEATTLE 27, Washington 17 (+7) - One would have to assume that since the Seahawks gave up two draft choices in addition to cornerback Jeremy Lane to obtain offensive tackle Duane Brown in their trade with Houston on Tuesday, the point of the deal was to strengthen the team for the here and now. Washington has struggled on rugs of late with 4-13 outright and 7-10 pointwise records on them since 2013.

DALLAS 24, Kansas City 13 (+1) - By the time Ezekiel Elliott actually serves his suspension, he will have already retired - and just about any player who was born in the same year the Chiefs last won in God's Country will have already retired too because it was in 1975. And like several other teams going from natural grass at home to artificial turf on the road this week, for Kansas City the transition has been anything but smooth - 17-32 straight up dating back to 1998, and 8-14 straight up indoors since that same year. True, Fat Boy is 6-0 straight up and 5-0-1 against the spread versus the NFC East since taking the KC job - but the push was against guess who?

MIAMI 20 (+2 1/2), Oakland 14 - Who knows? Maybe Jay Ajayi was a "cancer in the locker room," explaining his being seemingly given away to the Eagles. But there is no "maybe" attached to Oakland's five-game losing streak to Miami by a combined 157-73. Riding the upset wave here despite Miami's "priced to sell" status.


MONDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY
16 (+2), Detroit 7 - If it seems as if it has been a long time since the Lions beat the Packers as a road favorite, maybe that's because it has: December 15, 1991 was the date (Detroit was favored at Lambeau in a Week 17 "Siesta Bowl" in 2011, but lost when Matt Flynn - a backup quarterback! - somehow threw for 480 yards and 6 TDs). Since that date Detroit is 1-25 straight up and 7-18-1 against the line on the tundra, from 2001 to the present 18-60 straight up as a visitor on the grass and 4-24 straight up as a visitor in cold weather, and 7-29 straight up and 12-23-1 against the line since 1994 in "Triple Witching Hour" games, which arise when a domed-stadium team has to play on grass, outdoors, and in cold weather, all in the same game. And this game is of course at night, worsening the cold-weather effect.


BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY
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Last edited by Anthony; 11-01-2017 at 08:53 AM.
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Old 11-04-2017, 05:55 AM   #2
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Last Week: 1-2
Season: 3-6

I sense a trend.



Week 9 Best Bets:

PHI -7.5 over DEN
SF +1 over AZ
NO - 7 over TB
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Originally Posted by buckeye
Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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