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Old 12-07-2017, 11:33 AM   #1
Anthony
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Default Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-8. Season totals: 96-90-4, Pct. .516. Best Bets: 23-15-1, Pct. .603.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

New Orleans
17 (+2), ATLANTA 6 - The Falcons swept the Saints last year, the Saints swept the Falcons in 2015, the Falcons swept in 2014, and the Saints swept in 2013! Four days after getting shut down at home by one of the league's better defenses, the Falcons get shut down at home by another one of the league's better defenses and fade from the playoff picture - a fate all too familiar to defending Super Bowl runners-up.


SUNDAY

Dallas 16, N.Y. GIANTS 13 (+6) - That was quite a show of force from the Cowboys Thursday night - but this one's in cold weather where they're 24-36 straight up dating back to 1995 - that's a .400 winning percentage; their winning percentage in the rest of their games since then is .556 (they're also 24-33-3 against the spread in those cold-weather games). And the cold weather may be more than conceptual: The average forecast kickoff-time temperature is 37 degrees, with the possibility of some combination of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Could the Giants win one for Eli and Spags?

BUFFALO 21, Indianapolis 14 (+4) - Home team here has won the last four, and covered in the last three. Off the board in most places due to Tyrod Taylor's bruised patellar tendon - no secrets on injury reports any more than there are atheists in foxholes!

TAMPA BAY 23, Detroit 17 (+1) - Another game that very few books have opened. X-rays were negative on Matthew Stafford's throwing hand, meaning that the hand is not broken - but an extremely similar thing happened last December when Stafford dislocated the middle finger on his throwing hand, spelling "@#$% you" to Detroit's season. And the Lions are the NFL's worst December team over the past 17 years, injuries to their quarterback's throwing hand or not.

Minnesota 12, CAROLINA 7 (+1) - As we saw last week in numerous games, teams that come through when it's all on the line, do. Those that can't, don't.

Green Bay 16, CLEVELAND 6 (+3 1/2) - The Packers just have to survive one more week before Aaron Rodgers comes back - and this is almost certainly Cleveland's last chance at evading an 0-16 season, as the Browns host red-hot AFC playoff contender Baltimore next week and then their final two games are on the road, where they have lost 19 consecutive games and losing those two would move them into fourth place on the all-time list.

CINCINNATI 35, Chicago 7 (+6) - On the road in general, and on artificial turf in particular, the Bears gotta do what the Bears gotta do, as in 1-12 straight up and 4-9 against the spread on the NFL highway in 2016-17, and eight consecutive losses on the carpet in which they were outscored by by 95 points. Best bet.

HOUSTON 20, San Francisco 16 (+1) - Sure he won, but Jimmy Garoppolo didn't even score a touchdown last week against the Bears - and speaking of the Bears, the 49ers are even worse than they are on artificial turf, having dropped their last 10 on it. The home team has also won all three in the series, with two covers and a push, and Texans linebacker Brian Cushing could be back this week from his 10-game suspension as a repeat PED violator.

KANSAS CITY 23, Oakland 20 (+4 1/2) - The Raiders are simply atrocious in cold weather - 1-10 straight up and 4-7 against the spread since 2012 - but how can you trust the Chiefs right now as a favorite over anybody? You can't - so take the points.

N.Y. Jets 16 (+1), DENVER 10 - The same goes for the Broncos as for the Chiefs - and Denver is the latest victim of the "20th Overall Pick Jinx": Since 2010, the team with the best record among the teams that don't make the playoffs has gotten the 20th overall pick in the following year's draft - and the Broncos are already assured of being the sixth of the seven such teams so far to neglect to post a winning record the following season (the 2013 Cardinals were the sole exception, going 11-5 and making the playoffs in 2014; yet even here the exception proves the rule, as multiple late-season injuries at quarterback caused the '14 Cards to be underdogs to the 7-8-1 Panthers in the wild-card round, and to lose to them).

Tennessee 31, ARIZONA 21 (+3 1/2) - And while we're on the subject of jinxes: In Week 6, Derrick Henry, who seems hell-bent on debunking the "Alabama Running Back Jinx," scored on a 72-yard run with 47 seconds left to cover the spread against Indianapolis; last week, Henry scored on a 75-yard run with 46 seconds left to cover against Houston (and where did Henry get such breakaway speed at 6'3", 247?). The Cardinals had their one fluke two weeks ago when they upset Jacksonville.

L.A. CHARGERS 24, Washington 20 (+7) - Kirk Cousins is 4-9 against the spread as a starter in Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night games, and 25-15 in the rest of his games - and the Chargers, who, over the last three weeks have gone from winning by 30 to winning by 22 to winning by nine (and over Cleveland no less!), have a huge, and prime-time, AFC West game coming up, at Kansas City. Looking ahead?

Seattle 13 (+3 1/2), JACKSONVILLE 6 - Only New England has a better record in December since 2011 than the Seahawks (22-5 to Seattle's 21-6) - and with this line you have the extra chance of losing by a field goal and still covering if you bet on the 'Hawks.

L.A. RAMS 35, Philadelphia 13 (+1) - The English word "pusillanimous" comes from two Latin words - "puslllus," meaning "little," and "animus," meaning "courage" (among other things) - and it describes with pinpoint accuracy the Eagles' performance on Sunday night: Prince Harry passed for 348 yards, but the Eagles managed all of 10 points and the vaunted Philly running backs (none of whom will so much as sniff a thousand-yard season) combined for just 68; and after Harry fumbled into the end zone in the third quarter, the defense threw themselves a big-time pity party, allowing Russell Wilson to lead the Seahawks on an easy 80-yard touchdown drive that effectively salted the game away. And look at what happened after the Eagles lost to Kansas City in Week 2: They went into a two-week self-pity shell, needing a 61-yard field goal on the last play of the game to edge the 2-10 Giants, then they shaded the then-still-winless Chargers by two points. Cooper Kupp should have a highly productive day - and Sammy Watkins, and Jared Goff should have an even more productive day throwing to them, in what has all the makings of a blowout.

PITTSBURGH 13, Baltimore 10 (+6) - Since their Week 9 bye the Steelers are 4-0 straight up - and 1-3 against the spread! Get ready for another close, low-scoring, and dirty AFC Norther - and yes, take the points.


MONDAY NIGHT

New England 24, MIAMI 23 (+12) - I can't remember the last time I did this - tab a team as a best bet without picking them to win the game outright. The league told the Patriots "No Gronk For You" this week, and since 2012, the home team in this series is 10-1 against the spread. Stephen Gostkowski was just showing off when he nailed that 63-yarder in Mexico City three weeks ago, but this time around New England may need a similar effort on the final play of the game to prevent an outright upset.


BEST BETS: CINCINNATI, L.A. RAMS, MIAMI
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Old 12-08-2017, 04:30 AM   #2
Jack Knoff
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Last Week: 2-1
Season: 10-13

Best Bets:
KC - 4.5
CHI +6
LAR -1
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Originally Posted by buckeye
Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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