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Old 11-15-2018, 01:53 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 11 NFL Pointspead Picks

Last week: 6-7-1. Season totals: 62-80-6, Pct. .439. Best Bets: 15-13-2, Pct. .533.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE
27, Green Bay 13 (+2 1/2) - The Seahawks didn't have to be "priced to buy" to want to buy them: They're 5-0 straight up on Thursday night since 2013 (the only team to be undefeated on Thursday night over that span) and within a half point (a six-point win over Arizona as a 6 1/2-point favorite in Week 10 of last year) of also being 5-0 against the spread therein. And the home team in this series has won seven in a row, covering in six, while the Packers, who are the NFL's lone unbeaten-at-home and winless-on-the-road team, will be traveling 1,900 miles from a home game on a Sunday (and a late-time-slot game on a Sunday no less) to a Thursday night road game, their longest such flight in franchise history - and since 2012 Green Bay is 11-20 straight up and 10-21 against the line as a visitor on the carpet, and will be missing three starters in the secondary. For the second week in a row, a best bet can be found in the Thursday night game.


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
28, Tampa Bay 17 (+2) - Didn't the Giants finish 7-9 after an 0-6 start in 2013? That they did - and they are 5-1 both ways in their last six versus the Bucs, who have struggled both on artificial turf - 5-20 straight up and 9-15-1 against the spread since 2013 - and in cold weather - 18-45 straight up and 26-37 against the spread in franchise history (at this writing the forecast kickoff-time temperature is 43; had the game been at Tampa it would have been 77).

WASHINGTON 27 (+3), Houston 20 - Why are the 6-3 Bears getting hyped to death while the 6-3 Redskins are getting essentially ignored? After this game, Washington has only one game left against a team that currently has a winning record (at 5-4 Tennessee in Week 16), and since the Texans installed artificial turf on their home field after their first home game of the 2016 season, they're 3-9 straight up and 3-8-1 against the spread on natural grass, and Houston is 8-15 straight up since 2015 as a visitor in cold weather - and Washington free safety D.J. Swearinger holds a grudge against Bill O'Brien from when Swearinger played for him in 2014 (earlier this year Swearinger and the 'Skins beat Arizona and Tampa Bay, both on the road, and for whom he also played before coming to Washington last year). The first of two home underdogs this week that figure to pull off the upset.

DETROIT 28 (+3 1/2), Carolina 24 - The other such home underdog - and even if the Lions don't win outright, they're "priced to buy" too getting three and half, and since 2008 it has been awfully tough to buy the Panthers either on the carpet or in domed stadiums: Dating back to that year, Carolina is 15-29-1 straight up and 15-30 against the line in the former venue and 11-21 straight up and 12-19-1 against the line in the latter venue.

Dallas 30 (+3), ATLANTA 27 - A three-game home stand awaits the 'Pokes after this very winnable game, starting with a must-winner against Washington on Thanksgiving. Atlanta defense, 29th in points allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per game, has been a major disappointment.

Tennessee 35 (+3), INDIANAPOLIS 28 - Marcus Mariota is back in the high life again, health-wise, and it should be spelled "Inianapolis" because there in no "D" there (26th in points allowed per game and 23rd in yards allowed per game). In politics they talk about RINOs - Republicans In Name Only, and DINOs - Democrats In Name Only. Well this will be a UINO - Upset In Name Only.

BALTIMORE 27, Cincinnati 21 (+3 1/2) - Don't worry if Lamar Jackson has to make his first NFL start here (Joe Flacco, hip, "day-to-day"). The Bengals are a league-worst 4-14 straight up in fatigue games (7-11 against the spread), while the Ravens are 17-12 both ways coming off a bye week - and right now Central Michigan could score points in bunches on Cincinnati's defense, which has allowed a staggering 158 points in its last four.

CHICAGO 23, Minnesota 16 (+3) - The Bears offer terrible value, until it is taken into account that this is the most home-dominated division rivalry in the NFL: Dating back to 2001, Chicago is 14-3 straight up (and 11-4-2 against the spread) in their building, while Minnesota is 13-4 straight up (and 10-6-1 against the spread) in theirs. And the dreaded "Triple Witching Hour" rears its lucrative head again: The Vikings are 13-38-1 straight up and 19-30-3 against the spread in those babies since they vacated storied Metropolitan Stadium at the end of the 1981 season, not counting 2014 and 2015, when they shared outdoor TCF Bank Stadium with the Big Ten's Golden Gophers.

ARIZONA 16, Oakland 7 (+3 1/2) - At least Arizona is actually trying to win games (as witnessed last week at Kansas City), and Oakland is 4-13 straight up since 2003 inside NFL domes. The Cards complete a 3-0 sweep of the Bay Area teams (they're 0-7 against the rest of their opponents).

L.A. CHARGERS 30, Denver 13 (+7) - They called Prohibition "The Noble Experiment" - but The Case Keenum Experiment in Denver has proven to be anything but noble. Two weeks ago we saw the Cowboys, 20-9 straight up and a co-league-leading 20-7-2 against the spread coming off a bye week, lose off the bye, and last week we saw the Eagles, 22-7 coming off a bye week, lose off the bye. This week we will see the Broncos, 21-8 both ways coming off a bye week (the spread record now the best in the NFL thanks to the aforementioned loss by Dallas), lose off the bye.

NEW ORLEANS 62, Philadelphia 14 (+7 1/2) - And I'm absolutely serious about this score. The big "U" lights - for underachievers: This year's Eagles are the first team in NFL history to be favored in all of their first nine games and have a losing record - and like the Packers, the Eagles will also be missing three starters in their secondary due to injuries. And Sean Payton showed that he has a Joe College streak in him last week: Enter the fourth quarter with a 45-7 lead and then kick two field goals in that quarter? As they say on ESPN (or at least used to, anyway), c'mon, man! Dig Doug's career 3-7 spread record on rugs and Philadelphia's 4-8-1 spread record in domes since 2012 are mere icing on one lopsided cake - a cake from which Drew Brees may very well pop out of with the new single-game passing-yards record; the present mark was the 554 for which Norm Van Brocklin threw on September 28, 1951 against the defunct New York Yanks (Van Brocklin's team, the Rams, won that game 54-14).

Pittsburgh 17, JACKSONVILLE 13 (+6) - Despite a disappointing 3-6 start that has fueled some lively speculation as to whether they were a one-year flash-in-the-pan last season, the Jags still rank third in total defense and first against the pass this year. At least one team has to win the game but not cover the spread. This is the game in which that is most likely to happen.


MONDAY NIGHT

Kansas City
38 (+4), L.A. RAMS 28 - After outscoring their first three opponents 102-36 and covering in all three games, the Rams are 1-5-1 against the spread in their seven games since - and not only have they dropped six straight to the Chiefs, but they were outscored 223-101 in the sextet. The move of this game back to Los Angeles from Mexico City will not alter the outcome.


BEST BETS: SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, NEW ORLEANS
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