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Old 10-11-2018, 12:23 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 6 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 6-8-1. Season totals: 31-44-3, Pct. .417. Best Bets: 9-6, Pct. .600.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

N.Y. GIANTS
31 (+2 1/2), Philadelphia 21 - As the adage goes, not only should you root for the home team, but you should bet on them as well: They're 50-26-2 straight up and 45-30-3 against the spread so far in 2018 - and can the Giants make it back-to-back games of scoring 30 or more points after neglecting to do so in 37 consecutive games prior? With their receivers facing the highly combustible Eagle secondary, they sure can - and Dig Doug is 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the line lifetime as a visitor on the carpet.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
27, Indianapolis 14 (+3) - Pushovers need not apply in the suddenly howling AFC East, and the Colts have had their problems outdoors, dropping nine of eleven road games at open-air stadiums in 2017-18.

Carolina 31, WASHINGTON 20 (+1) - Carolina has beaten The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name five in a row, covering in the last four - and in this matchup of Superman vs. The Game Manager, if the Panthers jump out to an early lead they will never look back.

ATLANTA 45, Tampa Bay 28 (+3 1/2) - A loss here puts the Falcons in a hole from which only two teams in NFL history - the 1970 Bengals and the 2015 Chiefs - have ever successfully dug themselves out of to make the playoffs. And the Bucs are nearly always in a hole on artificial turf - 5-18 straight up, 8-14-1 against the spread since 2013 - and in domed stadiums - 5-15 straight up, 7-13 against the spread since that same year.

MIAMI 16 (+2), Chicago 13 - I just don't think that the Bears are ready to take their place among the NFC's elite - and they've lost four in a row both ways coming off the bye, and the favorite in this series has lost six of the last seven outright. Watch the brave souls on the Fox pregame show tag the Dolphins as their "upset pick."

CLEVELAND 14 (+1), L.A. Chargers 10 - The Browns have covered six straight over the Chargers, and all five of their 2018 games have been decided by four points or less, including a tie, a repeat of which here would result in them covering. But their real test comes next week on the road (at Tampa Bay), where they have lost 23 consecutive games, three shy of the NFL record established by Detroit from mid-2007 until late 2010.

Pittsburgh 24 (+2 1/2), CINCINNATI 14 - The Bengals are another team that at this point I'm reluctant to pencil in as genuine contenders - and the Steelers have won their last five in the City of Satan, and have a six-game winning streak over Cincinnati overall.

Seattle 31, Oakland 24 (+2 1/2) - Eight straight wins by the home team (and seven covers) - which would have been the Raiders if this game wasn't in London - in the series. But no way would Mark Davis' late father have let Khalil Mack leave, and Oakland's defense has been a total mess without him (30th in both points and yardage allowed).

MINNESOTA 33, Arizona 17 (10 1/2) - If you missed Arizona's wedding last week - an outright upset as a 5 1/2-point underdog, correctly picked both ways in these lines - you may want to miss this week's funeral: The last time the Cards won in Minnesota, the game was played at Metropolitan Stadium, because it was in 1977. Since then: Nine losses, only two covers, and outscored 290-157.

HOUSTON 20, Buffalo 14 (+9 1/2) - Would you lay as near as makes no difference to double digits on these Texans, whether Deshaun Watson (chest) plays or not? I know I wouldn't.

L..A. Rams 27, DENVER 24 (+7) - Ten days after showing semi-humanness against Minnesota, the Rams showed real humanness against Seattle - and the Broncos remain a tough out at home, with two wins and a cover in the home game they did lose, to the Rams' unbeaten peers, the Chiefs. Take it.

TENNESSEE 20 (+1), Baltimore 16 - Marcus Mariota is getting healthier every week and after back-to-back decent showings against the Broncos and Steelers, the same old Ravens offense resurfaced last week.

DALLAS 19 (+1 1/2), Jacksonville 13 - Corey Grant has joined fellow running back Leonard Fournette on the sidelines, so the Jaguars signed the 31-year-old Jamaal Charles, who hasn't been much of a factor since gaining 1,033 yards and scoring nine touchdowns for Kansas City in 2014. The Cowboys have definitely done their part to contribute to this year's lopsided domination by the home teams, with their 2-0 record at home and 0-3 on the road, while Jacksonville, since 2013, is 4-16 straight up since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet, and 1-7 straight up and 2-5-1 against the line inside NFL domes.

NEW ENGLAND 38, Kansas City 31 (+3) - The Patriots have fired back-to-back 38s at defenses that have to be playing better than that of the Chiefs by default because KC's defense ranks last in the league. This is revenge for when the Chiefs essentially sealed New England's fate for the 2017 season by beating the Pats in the Thursday night opener, in that only one team that has lost at home in Week 1 has ever won the Super Bowl (Tampa Bay in 2002).


MONDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY
35, San Francisco 13 (+9) - Green Bay just being Green Bay again: 2-0-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread with a plus 23 point differential at home, 0-2 both ways with a minus 22 point differential on the road.


BEST BETS: N.Y. JETS, MINNESOTA, GREEN BAY
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