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Old 09-25-2007, 05:57 PM   #1
Silver Dragon
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Default Silver Dragon's Week 4 Picks

Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL!!! After three weeks of football, the teams are starting to define themselves for who they are. Lesser teams have fallen from the undefeated ranks while a few struggling teams have finally found some chemistry to take their first win. A few teams have continued to dominate in each of their match ups to stand out among the best, while others just canít seem to remember which way to move the ball, ranking them among the worst. And at the relief of some of these teams, bye-weeks will start this week allowing them to regain some composure.

My stats for last week were shocking to even myself as I felt the week went much worse than my stats reveal. Much like New England, who has scored exactly 38 points in all three opening weeks, I have gone 10-6 for three consecutive weeks. This brings my season totals to 30 of 48 or 30-18 (.625). With the beginning of bye-weeks it will be impossible for me to have a fourth consecutive 10-6 week, so will it be 10-4 or 8-6? Personally, Iím hoping for 14-0. Weíll have to wait and see.

ALL TIMES ARE EASTERN
Sunday, September 30, 2007


Open date: Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM
Derek Anderson went from 328 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception against the lackluster defense in Cincinnati to 248 yards, 1 touchdown and two interceptions against a more competent defense in Oakland. That could bring additional problems to Cleveland this week as Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense travel into town.
Ravens win on the road.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1:00 PM
The Bears defense should be feeling used and abused after last weeks match up against Dallas. However, Jon Kitna probably wonít be slinging the ball down the field as efficiently as Tony Romo, and the Lions donít have a Terrell Owens. The Lions only hope will be their own defense and the turn over machine that is Rex Grossman. Possible upset here for Chicago? Maybe, butÖ
Bears even up their record to .500.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM
The Packers beat Philadelphia and ears perked up. Then they beat New York and people shrugged, ĎOKí. Last week they defeated San Diego and now you should really take notice and wonder just how good this team has gotten. Brett Favre was looking sharp once again last week as he went 369 yards for 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings defense are going to have their hands full this week.
Packers collect a victory on the road and remain undefeated!

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM
It looks like Andre Johnson may be missing another week as the Texans travel to Atlanta. Good news is that Houston still pulled within six of Indianapolis and threatened to give a possible upset. Granted the Texans will continue to miss Johnson, but even without him this team may should be capable of winning a game or two to keep in the running.
Texans rebound with a victory in Week 4.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM
The Jets managed to save themselves from going 0-3 last week as they rose above Miami to spark a positive spin on their season. The Bills havenít been so lucky. Now the Bills are looking for some sort of redemption on their season, but as Thomas Jones and Jerricho Cotchery only continue to get healthy, more options are opening up to Chad Pennington and the Jets. So once again this week, I get to chantÖ
J. E. T. S., Jets, Jets, Jets!!!!

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM
The Raiders have risen above the winless teams to claim their first victory in last weeks match up against Cleveland. This week they will travel across the country to meet up with the Dolphins, who have had struggles of their own. Trent Green has been throwing more interceptions than touchdowns and Ronnie Brown has only averaged 3.9 yards a carry (and only that after an improved performance against the Jets last week). Combine that with another weekís absence from Zach Thomas and an 0-3 Dolphins team is desperate for a win that wonít come easily, even if the Raiders are still a sub-par team.
Dolphins squeeze a close victory out at home.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM
Iím not even sure that I need to go too far into detail on this match up. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are on fire, while Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson need someone to light a fire under them. Traveling into Dallas this week, I wouldnít be looking for any upsets in this match up.
Cowboys continue to improve on an impressive start.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:05 PM
The 49ers looked like they might be one of the surprise teams of the season prior to week 1, but then only made their way to 2-0 by luck with fourth quarter heroics. However, no luck followed them to Pittsburgh last week as Alex Smith and Frank Gore found themselves troubled by the Pittsburgh defense. This week they host Matt Hasselbeck, who is coming off three touchdown passes last week, and Shaun Alexander, who has been averaging 4.2 yards a carry even with a cast around his wrist. But you have to feel that this game could go either way.
Seahawks escape any fourth quarter heroics for a win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers 4:05 PM
The Buccaneers have defeated the Saints and St. Louis, two teams that were thought to be formidable competitors, but have yet to show why. This week they travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Both teams at 2-1, the injury to Jake Delhommeís elbow could mean bad news for Carolina. This could leave David Carr to try and create chemistry with the phenomenal Steve Smith. I donít believe Iím sold on the Buccaneers, but this injury could make a huge impact. Buccaneers travel to Carolina this week to test drive the Panthers new Carr.
Buccaneers steal away with a victory.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts 4:15 PM
Iíve been dreading this pick. Everyone that knows me knows that Iím a Denver Homer, but Iíve been anything but happy with the Broncos performance this season. Barely winning against the 0-3 Bills, overtime win against the Raiders, and then to be dominated by the run game of Jacksonville gives little hope of walking into the RCA Dome in Indianapolis and defeating Peyton Manning and the Colts. Add an ankle injury to Jay Cutler and a groin injury to John Lynch and Denver could feel an injury impact on both sides of the ball this week. Have no doubt that I will be rooting against my own pick to the very end for a Denver victory in this match up, butÖ
Colts remain undefeated.
(Now that was a painful pick)

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers 4:15 PM
I donít think anyone expected to see the Chargers fall to 1-2 at the hands of the Packers last week, but you canít expect to gut a teamís coaching staff while keeping the teams chemistry into the first few weeks of a new season. This is especially true when the new head coach is Norv Turner. However, the Chiefs havenít seen their best start to a season either. Place this game in Arrowhead stadium and their might be a question here, but since this game is in San DiegoÖ
Chargers pull their season back up to the .500 mark.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 PM
Last week Matt Leinart was pulled out of the game and replaced by Kurt Warner. Although Warner made a run for a come back against Baltimore, this creates a quarterback controversy in Arizona right before the undefeated Steelers come into town. This is really bad news when you take into consideration the defensive strengths of Pittsburgh who have only allowed 26 points over the last 3 weeks, the lowest in the league.
Steelers remain among the undefeated.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants 8:15 PM
Both of these teams struggled for two weeks before finally marking up a ĎWí in the win column. Although the Eagles were able to defeat the previously 2-0 Detroit by 35 points, the Giants pulled an upset against what was considered a formidable defense in Washington who had the best 3rd down hold percentage in the NFL prior to this loss. So who falters this week? Will Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook continue to light up the score board or will it be Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress? After giving up the second highest points allowed in the NFL (97) will the Giants defense hold this week or does the Giants team implode under the command of Tom Coughlin once again?
Eagles come out on top in this road win.

Monday, October 1, 2007, Monday Night Football

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals 8:30 PM
At this point, many are starting to wonder if there is a team out there that can stop Tom Brady and Randy Moss as they have simply dominated every game so far this season. Include the fact that the Patriots defense has only allowed 35 points this season, and the Bengals defense has given up 95 points (third worst in league), and this game should be a no brainer. Patriotís defense slows down Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson while Brady and Moss go to town on the Cincinnati score board.
Patriots continue to appear unbeatable.

And that concludes another week of NFL football picks. Only the weekend can tell which picks ring true. Just remember, ďIf you see a defense team with dirt and mud on their backs they've had a bad day.Ē Ė John Madden.
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Old 09-26-2007, 12:36 AM   #2
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Well, it looks like Rex Grossman will officially be benched this week as Brian Griese takes the starting position going into Detroit. My opinion on this is that it only increases my confidence that the Bears will emerge victorious because right now, ANYTHING is better than Grossman.

Also, Steven Jackson is officially out for the Rams. That's just driving the nail home into the coffin as St. Louis travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys this week. Both of these updates only improve the confidence of my current picks for these games.
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Old 09-26-2007, 02:11 PM   #3
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Thanks. I hope you're right about the Packers game.
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Old 09-27-2007, 11:40 PM   #4
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Last week certainly didnít break the bank account as I recorded a 10-3-3 week. Not that it would make much of a difference, but of the 3 even games, I was 2-1 in straight up picks.

Alright, this week will be short and sweet.
[hr]
September 30, 2007, Sunday
[hr]
Oakland Raiders +4
Miami Dolphins
Iím taking the Dolphins to win here, but not by more than a field goal. Raiders cover.
[hr]
Houston Texans -3
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Schaub will match up against his former team and show them what they are missing. Take Houston, give the points.
[hr]
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns +4
Ravens defense should be able to hold the Browns to a low score, but the Baltimore offense wonít be able to run up the score themselves. Take the Browns to cover.
[hr]
Chicago Bears -3
Detroit Lions
Bears defense is a little banged up, but they will still remain dominate. Iíd give the points, only because Grossman wonít be throwing the ball. Take the Bears give the points.
[hr]
Green Bay Packers -3
Minnesota Vikings
Packers are for real this year. Favre has improved and their defense is good. Take the Pack, give the measly three points.
[hr]
St. Louis Rams
Dallas Cowboys -13.5
Of three games, the Rams have lost one by 14 and another by 21. The Cowboys have won by 10, 17, and 24. Take Dallas, give the points.
[hr]
New York Jets -3.5
Buffalo Bills
Thomas Jones should run wild. Jets and give the points.
[hr]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Carolina Panthers
Jake Delhomme is most likely out. Ouch. Buccaneers steal away with another? Bucs, take the points.
[hr]
Seattle Seahawks -2.5
San Francisco 49ers
By a field goal right before overtime, Seahawks, give the points.
[hr]
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals win one game over Seattle and they get better odds than San Fran did against the Steelers? Take the Steelers and give, give, give the points.
[hr]
Kansas City Chiefs +12
San Diego Chargers
Chargers win, but I have my concerns here. Twelve is too many. Chiefs cover.
[hr]
Denver Broncos +10
Indianapolis Colts
Some may say this is a homer pick (Go Broncos), but Indy has been keeping it within seven over the last two match ups. Broncos cover.
[hr]
Philadelphia Eagles -3
New York Giants
Both teams came around last week, and both teams have had high scoring games. Hairs on the back of my neck say Philly gives the points.
[hr]
October 1, 2007 Monday Night Football
[hr]
New England Patriots -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals
I know the Bengals have a high powered offense, but the Patriots defense has done well this year and New England has yet to have a close game. I donít think they start against the porous pass defense of the Bengals. Tom Brady and Randy Moss have a field day. Take the Patriots and give the 7.5. Heck, give 10, give 13. You could probably even get away with giving 16Ö well, ok, letís not get carried away, maybe not 16.
[hr]
And there you have it. Week 4 picks ATS. Good Luck.
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Old 09-28-2007, 11:47 AM   #5
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I have a feeling Minnesota will beat Green Bay this weekend. I hope not!
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