MLB Thought of The Day

[CKFresh]

Consider...

How frustrating it must be for the Cardinals and their fans.
A week ago today the Cardinals pulled off a three game sweep of the Reds....outscoring them 21-8 and taking a 10-5 lead in the season series.
As a result the Cards moved from two games back of the Reds to one game up in the NL Central.

While the Cards had juggled their rotation to send their top three pitchers vs the Reds, the Reds sent one of their best pitchers (Travis Wood) to the minors and then lost another pitcher (Johnny Cueto) to a 7-game suspension.

Since then......
The Reds have won four in a row.
The Cards have gone 1-3, dropping three straight games vs teams a combined 28 games under .500 and 31 games out of first place.(Cubs/Brewers).
The Cards lost games with Cris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia on the mound.
The Reds returned a pitcher (Homer Bailey) from rehab and watched him win a ML game for the first time since May.
The Cards returned a pitcher (Kyle Loshe) from rehab and watched him get hammered and booed in a loss.
The Cards watched starting 3B Felipe Lopez boot two balls Tuesday night and lose the game.

As a result the Reds have erased a week from the schedule and are back to where they were going into last Monday's game...two games up on St Louis in the NL Central.....with 43 games remaining.

The Reds get Wood back Thursday and Cueto back Friday.

"How we lookin'?". I'd say pretty good.

[CKFresh]

Did you know? Reds pitching has best road ERA in MLB (3.44) and best batting average against in MLB (.244)?

[doublee]

Originally Posted by CKFresh

Right now, Votto is having a significantly better year than Pujols.

How about now? In case you had not noticed Pujols is just one point away from leading the league in all three Triple Crown categories.

[CKFresh]

Originally Posted by doublee

How about now? In case you had not noticed Pujols is just one point away from leading the league in all three Triple Crown categories.

Yeah, Albert has turned it on lately.

[CKFresh]

Votto, right on his heels...

4-7 last night with 2 HR and 4 RBI...

Behind only 2 HR and 2 RBI (in 30 fewer ABs)

[CKFresh]

Quote of note
"I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols."--Buster Olney, ESPN

[catman]

Votto is a more consistant hitter, or at least thats the way it seems in his young career. Pujols can be pitched to, if one has a very big fastball and a very good secondary pitch and tremendous command of both. If the pitcher misses with either, he will hit the ball very hard.

[CKFresh]

Votto's apprach is a thing of beauty. The way he can hit the ball to the opposite field with authority is amazing.

Oh, and in case people still think he is just benefitting from a small home ball park...

Votto
HOME - .306/.397/.568, 15 HR, 9 doubles
AWAY - .345/.426/.634, 16 HR, 15 doubles

Dude can rake, in any ballpark.

[chiefsfan27]

Originally Posted by CKFresh

Quote of note
"I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols."--Buster Olney, ESPN

The same guy whose sources told him that the Cardinals and Phillies were considering trading Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard?

Don't get me wrong, Votto is a good player. Heck, I'll even say he's the best player in the league not named Albert Pujols. But pitching around anyone to get to Pujols is asinine.

I don't put a lot of stock into sabermetrics, but some of them (like Wins Above Replaqcement) are actually excellent indicators of value, and have generally been very good predictors of who wins the MVP, mostly because the stat is designed to measure how many games a team wins because the specific player was in the game, and not someone else.

Votto's WAR this season is 4.9 to Pujols' 5.3. That's close enough to consider Votto for MVP if his team makes the playoffs, and the Cardinals don't, but not nearly enough to walk him to get to Albert.

Why? Because Votto's WAR this year is 3.3 lower than Pujols career average WAR of 8.2. That's significant enough to make Pujols clearly the vastly superior player.

I mean, horsepower isn't the only determining factor in who wins a drag race, but if I'm driving a car with 300 hp, and a similar car across from me has 67% more (500 hp), I wouldn't expect to win the race, and neither should Votto.

[CKFresh]

Previous seasons have nothing to do with this year's MVP. Pujols has a lot more of a "track record" and a much longer time to "prove himself." Still, that has nothing to do with the player's value to the team THIS YEAR.

And WAR is a decent stat, but it has flaws. There are other "Win Percentage" stats that Votto is ahead of Pujols in (WPA and WPA/LI) and those stats actually account for situation.

OPS+ is a pretty good indication of a players production, and Votto leads the league. Runs Created is another good stat, and again, Votto leads the league.

Now, I agree that it would be crazy to walk Votto to get to Pujols, but I wouldn't walk Pujols to get to Votto either.

Here's what I know, Votto gets on base more, has a higher slugging percentage, he hits more HRs per at bat, he drives in more runs per at bat, he scores more runs per at bat, he hits into fewer double plays (8 for Votto, 19 for Pujols), he hits better with runners on base, he is a better base runner, and finally his team is in first place by 3 1/2 games.

[catman]

By the way, Adam Dunn will have something to say about the home run title in the NL this season.

[chiefsfan27]

Originally Posted by CKFresh

Previous seasons have nothing to do with this year's MVP. Pujols has a lot more of a "track record" and a much longer time to "prove himself." Still, that has nothing to do with the player's value to the team THIS YEAR.

Never said that previous season had anything to do with MVP. My point is that Pujols numbers are still arguably better this year, he's been on fire lately, and if he and Votto are even in numbers at the end if the year, the established player (Pujols) should get the award.

Originally Posted by CKFresh

Here's what I know, Votto gets on base more, has a higher slugging percentage, he hits more HRs per at bat, he drives in more runs per at bat, he scores more runs per at bat, he hits into fewer double plays (8 for Votto, 19 for Pujols), he hits better with runners on base, he is a better base runner, and finally his team is in first place by 3 1/2 games.

Better baserunner? Pujols is widely regarded as one of the smarter baserunners in the game and has 12 steals (and has been caught 3 times) while Votto has 11 steals (and has been caught 4 times).

Don't forget that Pujols is also at the top of the league among 1B when it comes to defense.

Again, let me say that this is a close race, and that the division winner will (and arguably should) end up winning the MVP. But with the two players trading blows in offensive stats, and Pujols being the superior runner and fielder, I'd vote for him.

[doublee]

Originally Posted by catman

By the way, Adam Dunn will have something to say about the home run title in the NL this season.

And Omar Infante is probably going to have something to say when it comes to the batting title as well.

[CKFresh]

On base-running...

Votto takes the extra base more often than Pujols (1st-to-3rd on a single, 1st-to-home on a double).

Votto hasn't had a chance to develope the reputation defensively, but watch him sometime. He will have a few gold gloves when his career is over.

[chiefsfan27]

Originally Posted by CKFresh

On base-running...

Votto takes the extra base more often than Pujols (1st-to-3rd on a single, 1st-to-home on a double).

Simply not true. Anyone who's watched the majority of the Cardinal's games this year can tell you that Pujols will always go for the extra base (with extremely rare exceptions), and that he is almost always safe when doing so.

I've seen the stat you're probably going off here, and I don't have any idea how it's calculated, but it can't possibly be done well. Brendan Ryan does not take more extra bases than Albert Pujols, trust me. I've seen both of them play in literally over 100 games this year, and Pujols is better.

I'd assume they simply don't have the right numbers for Pujols, because looking at the numbers of the players in the top 20 of the NL, I can say with some certainty that Pujols ranks among them in both attempts and percentage of successful attempts.

Originally Posted by CKFresh

Votto hasn't had a chance to develope the reputation defensively, but watch him sometime. He will have a few gold gloves when his career is over.

I don't doubt that he will. But this season Albert is the better fielder, and baserunner, and the offensive stats are split pretty evenly.

Don't look now, but Pujols has pulled within .006 of Votto in OPS (and leads him in OPS+), is tied with him in runs scored, and leads him HR and RBI.

What a race this is going to be! NL Central and NL MVP on the line. Can't wait till September 3rd!

Edit: Decided to check on some of the stats you talked about yesterday. They may have changed since then, but as of right now:

Pujols leads the league in runs created and AB per HR, and is htting .79 higher (with an OPS of .228 higher) with RISP and two outs.

He also has a higher secondary average, and has a 90% better BB/K ratio.