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Old 10-12-2017, 10:33 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 6 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 9-5. Season totals: 41-35, Pct. .539. Best Bets: 8-7, Pct. .533.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

CAROLINA
20, Philadelphia 13 (+3) - As they say at the racetrack, the Panthers, who went 15-1 and got to the Super Bowl just two years ago, hold a huge class edge over the Eagles, who haven't even had a .500 season since 2014, have not gone to the playoffs since 2013, and have not won a playoff game since 2008. And like T.J. Ward last week, Lane Johnson (concussion) is a victim of these Thursday night games that a rising tide of players despise so much that they are increasingly willing to give the owners their 18-game schedule in exchange for getting rid of them (Fletcher Cox might have been able to return as well if this game was going to played Sunday). With the Carolina defense ranking in the top six across the board and third overall, a parlay of Panthers and the under (45) could yield a nice return.


SUNDAY

New England
27, N.Y. JETS 14 (+9 1/2) - The Jets are a total shock at 3-2 but have yet to beat this kind (another popular racetrack expression), and the road team has covered in all five New England games thus far in 2017. And don't worry about Rob Gronkowski (thigh): The Patriots are 12-0 straight up and 10-2 against the spread in non-Gronk games in 2016-17.

WASHINGTON 21, San Francisco 17 (+10) - After losing their opener 23-3 to Carolina, the winless 49ers have lost four games by a total of 11 points, and a rematch at NFC East-leading Philadelphia looms next Monday night for The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name. Take the points despite teams coming off a long week (either a bye or a Thursday night game) now being 10-0 against the spread in 2017 and San Francisco's 6-13 record both ways in fatigue games - that means they're not coming a bye but playing a team that is, for those of you in Rio Linda, West Palm Beach and Staten Island. And remember that since Washington played on Monday night in Week 4, they have a day and a half less extra preparation time than most teams have following the bye.

ATLANTA 27, Miami 7 (+10) - If your offense has scored three touchdowns in their first four games, maybe you would snort stuff too, as Dolphins offensive assistant Chris Foerster was discovered doing, costing him his job. Chance for the Falcons to pad their stats on defense - and Miami hasn't won in Atlanta since 1980, getting outscored 57-23 in the last two, and is 5-13 against the line since 2013 as a visitor on the carpet. The Falcons are also coming off a bye week.

BALTIMORE 24, Chicago 6 (+7) - Another low-octane offense for the Ravens defense to dominate - and the Bears have lost 10 straight on the road by a combined 289-138 (2-8 against the spread) and haven't beaten Team Modell (Baltimore from 1996 to the present, Cleveland prior to that) on the road since 1972 (four losses by a total of 50 points). Best bet.

MINNESOTA 26 (+3 1/2), Green Bay 23 - The Packers, 10-17 pointwise on artificial turf since 2012, are priced to sell - and you know what Mike Francesa has always said about giving points on the road. Upset special.

HOUSTON 31, Cleveland 0 (+9) - Kevin Hogan? Hue Jackson cannot be serious! And don't hand me that Hogan went 16 out of 19 for 194 yards after DeShone Kizer was benched at halftime last week, when the Jets were sticking eight in the box on every down. Cleveland has lost a league-high 15 straight on the road (4-11 against the spread and outscored 423-230) and has lost and non-covered three straight to the Texans by a combined 69-25. Houston won't even need T.J.Watt or Whitney Mercilus to win this game, and win it easily.

NEW ORLEANS 34, Detroit 27 (+3) - The Saints are also coming off a bye - and they're 17-11 against the line doing that while Detroit is 7-12 against the line in fatigue games. The fact that the Lions won at New Orleans in both 2015 (35-27) and 2016 (28-13) is a problem though - but trading the disgruntled Adrian Peterson to Arizona might be a case of addition by subtraction.

L.A. Rams 27 (+1 1/2), JACKSONVILLE 21 - Can the Jaguars count on five interceptions every week? But they can count on 95 yards passing, or not much more, from Blake Bortles just about every week. Home team in this series has won all four meetings but the Rams have covered in all four.

ARIZONA 21 (+2), Tampa Bay 18 - If Adrian Peterson indeed has anything left, he has the power running style that David Johnson gives the Cardinals when he isn't out injured, as he is now - and the Bucs are yucks inside NFL domes: 4-12 straight up and 6-10 against the spread since 2013. Tampa Bay misses all three extra-point attempts and Arizona wins.

OAKLAND 20, L.A. Chargers 14 (+3) - Dude, where's my Carr? According to Jack Del Rio, he will be out there on the field for this game. Last three games in this series have all been decided by three points, with the Raiders winning all three but going 0-2-1 against the spread. Another late-time-slot puzzler.

KANSAS CITY 27, Pittsburgh 24 (+4) - Big Ben outthrew Blake Bortles by a truly comical 312 yards to 95 last week, and the Steelers have beaten the Chiefs in five of the last six. And a "No Revenge Jinx" may be developing: The Packers lost to the Falcons in the NFC championship game last year, then lost to Atlanta again in Week 2, then last week Green Bay beat the Cowboys after having beaten Dallas in the NFC divisional playoffs a year ago. With all these things in mind, the points are at least worth taking.

DENVER 38, N.Y. Giants 3 (+10) - The Giants lost not only Odell Beckham Jr., but also fellow wide receivers Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, and Dwayne Harris last week in their loss to the previously-winless Chargers - and they have not won in Denver since 1989, taking an 0-for-3 collar both ways there by a combined 84-39, and Denver is 21-7 both straight up and against the spread coming off a bye week, the best record in the NFL on both counts. Another best bet.


BEST BETS: BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, DENVER


Because of the unknown status due to injury of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, there is no line on Monday night's Indianapolis at Tennessee game; therefore, no selection can be made on the game.
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Last edited by Anthony; 11-08-2017 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:36 AM   #2
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Nice work!
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Old 10-15-2017, 02:10 AM   #3
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Good work, Anthony.



Best Bets:

L.A. Rams +1.5 over JAX
L.A. Chargers @ Oakland - over 50.5
Detroit +3 over New Orleans
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Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:30 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc View Post
Nice work!
Appreciate it Marc - but I hate to have to leave games unpicked because these sports books are too cowardly to open a line in a timely manner just because one player, usually a quarterback, might not play.
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Old 10-17-2017, 08:20 AM   #5
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1-2 for me last week.

Far short of Anthony's .539 clip.


There is always next week.
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Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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