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Old 07-03-2007, 12:45 PM   #1
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Projected Finish:
1. Michigan (11-1, 7-1)
2. Penn State (11-1, 7-1)
3. Ohio State (10-2, 6-2)
4. Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2)
5. Iowa (10-2, 6-2)
6. Purdue (7-5, 4-4)
7. Indiana (6-6, 2-6)
8. Michigan State (5-7, 2-6)
9. Northwestern (5-7, 2-6)
10. Illinois (4-8, 1-7)
11. Minnesota (4-8, 0-8)

Last year's overall record and Big Ten record in parenthesis.

Illinois (2-10, 1-7):
The Illini are in the process of building towards a bright future. While Ron Zook was run out of Gainesville for losing big games, he hasn't had the opportunity to play in any big games yet in Champaign, buying him time to do what he does best- recruit. The Illini brought in several top notch players last year to compliment several young stars already there including QB Isiah "Juice" Williams and RB Rashard Mendenhall. But this really is a work in progress. Despite having 17 starts back the Illini will still struggle to make a bowl game. The non-conference schedule is relatively soft with the only brutal game being a meeting with Missouri in St. Louis. The Big Ten schedule is also kind to Illinois, giving them Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan at home, but this team is still too young to compete with the big boys. 6-6 is in sight if they don't let the gimmes slip away like they did last season.
Best Case- 7-5
Worst Case- 2-10
Players to Watch- QB Juice Williams, LB J. Leman

Indiana (5-7, 3-5):
The Hoosiers were so close to finally getting back to a bowl game for the first time since 1993 last season. If they hadn't dropped home games to Southern Illinois and Connecticut, both losses by a touchdown, the Hoosiers could've very easily been 7-5 and not only gone bowling but gone to the Alamo Bowl. Unfortunately the Indiana program has now hit rock bottom again with the death of head coach Terry Hoeppner. As we saw with Northwestern last season, the season after losing your head coach is not an easy one. The Hoosiers looked primed to make another strong run at the elusive bowl game this season but the death of Hoeppner has put the program back into chaos. The AD deserves some flak for handling this so poorly. It was well known that Hoeppner probably wasn't going to return to Indiana this season and Billy Lynch should have been given the reigns in the spring to give the program some stability. That will likely cost the Hoosiers a chance at a bowl game this year. The team has the talent to become bowl eligible and a cushy OOC schedule that should provide them with 4 victories. QB Kellen Lewis really came into his own during mid-season last year when they upset #15 Iowa. WR James Hardy returns after turning down the NFL and is one of the better playmaking receivers in the league. They return 16 starters, including 9 on offense, but the team will have to really rally around Lynch in order to get the elusive bowl bid.
Best Case- 7-5
Worst Case- 4-8
Players to Watch- QB Kellen Lewis, CB Tracy Porter

Iowa (6-7, 2-6):
2006 was an absolute disaster for the Hawkeyes. With Drew Tate back most expected Iowa to challenge for the Big Ten title and perhaps even contend for a MNC. After a 5-1 start the Hawkeyes just hit the wall after losing to Indiana. Their only win after that was over Northern Illinois. Thanks to a cushy OOC schedule the Hawkeyes still managed to go bowling despite a horrendous conference mark of 2-6. So after losing Tate and coming off a 6-7 season, Iowa should be rebuilding, right? Nope. Thanks to the rotating Big Ten schedule the Hawkeyes miss both Ohio State and Michigan in 2007. The only thing saving them from having a dream schedule are trips to Penn State and Wisconsin. And as things stand right now, those are the only games that Iowa really should lose in 2007. But with a new starting QB (Jake Christensen) and some question marks on the OL it could pull them back into the 8-9 win category. Regardless, Iowa should be improved in the W-L category (whether they really improve given the lack of challenges is another debate) despite losing some key players and they have the best DL in the conference with all four starters returning. Expect to see the Hawkeyes on New Year's Day even if their best win ends up being against Michigan State.
Best Case- 10-2
Worst Case- 6-6
Players to Watch- RB Albert Young, DE Kenny Iwebema

Michigan (11-2, 7-1):
Michigan is an extremely tough read going into the season. They return Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Mario Manningham, perhaps the best offensive tandem in the conference. But on the other hand they return only 10 starters, including only four on defense. This means that the returning talent is really going to have to step up to account for the inexperience. With such an experienced leader as Henne the offense should be fine as they also return three starters on the OL including All-American LT Jake Long. The defense, however, is a concern. After being one of the best units in the nation for most of the regular season they were destroyed by Ohio State and Southern Cal's potent attacks in their final two games. They have a rather difficult three game stretch of Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State coming into Ann Arbor in September. While ND's young offense might not be much of a challenge Oregon and Penn State both bring in experienced QB's. This is a team that has a lot of hype, although not quite as much as the middle of last year when they nearly anointed MNC favorites for 2007. They seem to be the nation's favorite to win the Big Ten. They have a favorable schedule with their two tough OOC games at home and Penn State and Ohio State coming to Ann Arbor. Their toughest road game is easily Wisconsin. While Michigan looks pretty good on paper this is a team that could contend for the MNC or finish as low as fourth in the Big Ten.
Best Case- 12-0
Worst Case- 8-4
Players to Watch- WR Mario Manningham, DT Terrance Taylor

Michigan State (4-8, 1-7):

The Mark Dantonio era begins in East Lansing after Spartan fans finally got their wish and John L. Smith was run out of town. The Spartans are a perennial underachiever. After an outstanding 4-1 start in 2005, including an OT win at Notre Dame, MSU collapsed after another close loss to Michigan and finished 5-6. Last season the Spartans had ND on the ropes at home but allowed the Irish to come from behind and win the game, once again imploding the Spartans' season. Yet in typical Michigan State fashion they still managed to make some noise, erasing a 38-3 second half deficit at Northwestern to win 41-38 and complete the biggest comeback in college football history. Gone is Drew Stanton, a good QB despite his team seemingly always letting him down, and they only return 12 starters. Not good news for a team looking to get back to a bowl game for the first time in four years. The schedule is unkind with all of their tough games except for Michigan and Penn State on the road. Brian Hoyer takes over at QB and he played relatively well in relief of Stanton when he was injured late last season. It's going to be a tough season for Michigan State unless this team grows up real fast. But if they can get through the season without a monumental collapse perhaps it will be a sign that Dantonio is the right man for the job.
Best Case- 6-6
Worst Case- 3-9
Players to Watch- RB Javon Ringer, LB SirDarean Adams

Minnesota (6-7, 3-5):
The Golden Gophers are in the beginning of a transitional period under new head coach Tim Brewster. After suffering a historic collapse in the Insight Bowl against Texas Tech Minnesota sent Glen Mason packing despite his guiding the school to one of their most success runs in school history, guiding the Gophers to five straight bowl games. Now Brewster brings a new energy to the program in an effort to take a strong program out of the MetroDome and into their new on-campus stadium. Unfortunately things will not be particularly easy for Brewster in year one. The cupboard is bare and long-time starting QB Bryan Cupito (doesn't it seem like Cupito at Minnesota and Stocco at Wisconsin were around for about a decade?) is gone. It will be an uphill climb for Minnesota to reach their sixth straight bowl game. They return 9 starters on defense, including the linebacking corps, but this a unit that was blasted by several pedestrian offenses last season. The offense has Amir Pinnix and Ernie Wheelwright back to give the new QB, likely redshirt freshman Adam Weber, some weapons to work with. The non-conference schedule is very friendly with games against Miami of Ohio, Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and North Dakota State. Those should all be victories for the Gophers but they could very easily go 0-8 in the Big Ten. But if Brewster can make a strong impact on his team early on, they could possibly beat 2-3 between Illinois, Northwestern, and/or Indiana to reach that bowl game. But with two of those on the road and Illinois constantly improving, it seems unlikely.
Best Case- 7-5
Worst Case- 3-9
Players to Watch- RB Amir Pinnix, CB Dominic Jones

Northwestern (4-8, 2-6):
Last year was a difficult one for the Wildcats. After losing head coach Randy Walker suddenly at the end of June the program lost a major part of what made it so success despite being a small fish in a big pond. Pat Fitzgerald was named his successor and had a tough first season which included a rock-bottom losses to 1-AA New Hampshire and Michigan State, a game where they led 38-3 in the second half. The season ended on a bit of a strong note, winning two of their last three including a win at Iowa. The Wildcats looks poised to put up a better season a year after losing their leader. Eight starters return on each side of the ball including QB C.J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton. The non-conference schedule, like Minnesota's, is extremely friendly with Northeastern, Nevada, Duke, and Eastern Michigan. With four likely victories on the OOC schedule they only need two Big Ten wins to qualify for a bowl game. With Minnesota and Indiana on the schedule they have two prime opportunities.
Best Case- 8-4
Worst Case- 3-9
Players to Watch- RB Tyrell Sutton, LB Adam Kadela

Ohio State (12-1, 8-0):
A year after being embarrassed in the national championship game the Buckeyes are in a rebuilding year. Of course that means different things to every program. For a school like Purdue that means a losing season, for the Buckeyes it likely means something similar to 2004, a year without a BCS bowl game. Ohio State returns 11 starts, five on offense and six on defense. They have four back on the OL, including TE Rory Nicol. But other than that they have only WR Brian Robiskie back. They have a new QB in Todd Boeckman and RB's Chris Wells and Maurice Wells will share the carries. But with an inexperienced QB and young receiving corps the running game is going to have to carry the offense. There is some silver-lining already for 2008- if no one leaves early for the NFL (highly unlikely given recent history) the Buckeyes would return 10 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense. The defense, after playing remarkably well with only two starters back last season, should be solid once again. Standout LB James Laurinaitis is back, as are shutdown corner Malcolm Jenkins and an emerging star at strong safety with Jamario O'Neal. The defense is going to need to be a steadying force for the Buckeyes this year, especially early on while the young offense sorts out its inevitable issues. The schedule is extremely kind to Ohio State early. After some tough OOC schedules the past couple of years this one softens with Youngstown State, Akron, Washington (at Seattle though), and Kent State. The first eight are winnable with the first challenge coming at the end of October when Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to face Penn State. They should be undefeated going into that game. The schedule gets much tougher after that though with games against Wisconsin (home) and Michigan (away) with Illinois sandwiched in between. If the Buckeyes go into Happy Valley undefeated and walk out with a win, they can start thinking of a BCS bowl game and even a national title. But its going to be tough going from playing the dregs of the conference early on to playing three top notch opponents in the final four weeks. Buckeye fans should book a trip to Florida around 1/1. That's where they are likely headed.
Best Case- 11-1
Worst Case- 8-4
Players to Watch- RB Chris Wells, LB James Laurinaitis

Penn State (9-4, 5-3):

2006 was a tough year for Penn State after a very gratifying return to dominance with a 11-1 season in 2005. But with only nine starters back the likelihood of them slipping a little bit in 2006 was extremely high. Despite losing to the four best opponents they faced in the regular season Penn State finally put all the pieces together and upset #17 Tennessee in the Outback Bowl. That win has instilled confidence into a team that desperately needed it after nearly losing to Michigan State on the last week of the season. Now with 14 starters back, eight on offense and six on defense, Penn State is thinking of another big season. QB Anthony Morelli returns after an up and down 2006. After struggling through most of the regular season Morelli finally found himself in the Outback Bowl, playing by far his best game of the season. Penn State's receiving corps returns for their third year together (all juniors) and now has another dangerous weapon to add in with TE Andrew Quarless who became one of Morelli's favorite targets down the stretch. Penn State did suffer two significant losses in LT Levi Brown and RB Tony Hunt. Brown stabilized a pedestrian OL along with C A.Q. Shipley. Hunt was the heart and soul of Penn State's offense while Morelli struggled last season and his replacement, one highly-touted prospect Austin Scott, will need to have a great senior year to help ease the loss of Hunt. The offensive line still has some question marks but should be improved with three starters back. The defense should be solid once again but the front four has some questions with only DE Josh Gaines returning. The linebacking corps, even minus Paul Posluszny, shouldn't miss a beat with Dan Connor and Sean Lee returning. Cornerback Justin King is developing into one of the top corners in the nation. Penn State has an extremely kind schedule with all of the tough games (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State) minus Michigan at home. Penn State should earn a BCS bid but if not then it will be nothing worse than another New Year's Day in Florida.
Best Case- 12-0
Worst Case- 8-4
Players to Watch- TE Andrew Quarless, LB Dan Connor

Purdue (8-6, 5-3):

The Boilermakers were a peculiar team in 2006. After turning what some thought could be a national title run season in 2005 into a 5-6 record there was a lot of turmoil beginning to brew in 2006 and that continues into 2007, possibly a make or break year for Joe Tiller in West Lafayette. They had no convincing victories last season and ended the year with losses at Hawaii and against Maryland in the Champs Sports Bowl. The Boilermakers return 18 starters, nine on each side of the ball, including QB Curtis Painter who seems on the verge of a breakout season. The rest of the skill players are back on offense including WR's Selwyn Lymon and Dorien Bryant. Painter has plenty of weapons and the only offensive losses are from the offensive line. But the bad news is that they have nine starters back on defense. The defense was simply awful last season. They allowed 30 or more points six times, including 35 to 1-AA Indiana State. Usually returning starters is a good thing, in this case it may not be. If Purdue has any prayer of improving on last season the defense will need to step up. Purdue has some quality defensive players in LB Dan Bick and DE Cliff Avril but the unit as a whole is questionable. It should be noted that they produced that 5-3 conference record without Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule, both rotate back on in 2007. The schedule is particularly daunting as they get Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Iowa at home and travel to face Michigan and Penn State. Purdue is a tough read. If the defense can improve this team could win 8, even 9, games with a couple of breaks. Expect a typical Boilermaker year from this squad- 7-8 wins and a non-New Year's Day bowl game.
Best Case- 9-3
Worst Case- 6-6
Players to Watch- WR Selwyn Lymon, LB Dan Bick

Wisconsin (12-1, 7-1):
The Badgers going into 2007 are a team that no one is exactly sure what to expect. Some see them as a national title-contending team and a favorite to win the Big Ten. Others see them as a good team but could struggle with long-time starting QB John Stocco gone. The Badgers return 16 starters, nine on offense and seven on defense, but they are without QB John Stocco and All-American tackle Joe Thomas. The rest of the offense returns and RB P.J. Hill, who came out of nowhere to have a solid 2006, will be expected to carry a lot of the load. TE Travis Beckum is one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the country. The receiving corps is experienced but not a flashy group. The starting QB will be senior Tyler Donovan. Donovan played well when he did get to play last season but he is still inexperienced. If he can take command of the team like past Badger QB's Brooks Bollinger, Jim Sorgi, and John Stocco did the Badgers could have a national championship on their minds. The defense should be solid as usual. They return three on the DL including DE Matt Shaughnessy and DT Nick Hayden. Corner Jack Ikegwuonu is one of the best in the nation. It's hard to imagine the Badgers slipping much after two back-to-back surprising seasons. The schedule isn't too challenging, although they face Penn State and Ohio State on the road. Iowa and Michigan travel to Madison. The OOC schedule isn't too daunting but they do face Washington State in the season opener and they travel to UNLV the following week. UNLV isn't a very good team but that game has let-down written all over it after playing a superior opponent the week before. The Badgers look to be in good shape for a run at the Big Ten title and perhaps a national title but just don't be surprised to see this team fall a little bit short of expectations. The Badgers overachieved in 2005 and 2006 and without the steadying presence of John Stocco they could fall off a little bit.
Best Case- 12-0
Worst Case- 8-4
Players to Watch- TE Travis Beckum, CB Jack Ikegwuonu
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Last edited by Alex; 07-09-2007 at 06:12 PM.
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Old 07-09-2007, 10:42 AM   #2
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Finally done. Enjoy!
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Old 07-09-2007, 05:32 PM   #3
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Everything here seems pretty sensible. Good job. I hope your wrong about the Bucks though. Fifth place in the conference? Ouch.

Anyway, I'm actually not that worried about the offense. I think a return to the ground game should help soften the losses of Ginn and Gonzalez. OSU has a lot of talented WRs, and I think they should reload okay there. Troy Smith was obviously a great player, and the key to unit last year, so that will hurt. I like Boeckman though, I think he will be a good Big Ten quarterback. He's big and has a good arm. A new QB is never an easy transition, but he's been around a while so I don't think he will be in over his head, especially with the easy OCC. Still though, replacing a Heisman winner is not going to be easy. I just hope he Boeckman can make the loss as unpainful as possible. If Chris Wells can hold onto the football, he will be a scary runningback. He can be an offensive force that can take a ton of pressure off of the passing game if he lives up to his potential. Here's hoping. Maurice Wells is not a favorite of mine, and I don't think he offers much except some breathing time for Chris, who appeared to get winded pretty easily last year I couldn't help noticing.

The thing that scares me the most is our offensive line. Our tackles in particular were atrocious in the third quarter of the Michigan game (which proved to be a preview to the NC game against Florida), and again 50 days later in that collapse in the desert. There's no possible way they have a prayer of keeping the game close in Ann Arbor unless the line shows drastic...drastic improvement. I think a focus on the running game will slow down D ends and help that a lot, which is why some OSU fans wanted to see it more last season...and that's not second guessing. Tressel is smart and a talented coach, and I think he probably learned from his mistakes. I hope.

The defense, which played way above expectations for most of the year, looked pretty bad in the last two games. They gave up a lot of yards all season, though. A better run D is essential for the Bucks to successfully defend their Big Ten Title. Laurinaitis will be back, and hopefully we see more improvement from the linebackers and line. I think our secondary will be solid.

Going into the year I think it's highly unlikely the Buckeyes can beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. I thought last year was going to be the year Michigan got us back, but if they have any life left in that program, they should be poised to knock us off this year, especially with all their key returns. That is a definitly good sign for the team. Carr's job will be on the line in that game. I don't see any way he looses to Ohio State this year and retains his job. Michigan is really going to be ready to play this year. So, I see a loss there. Happy Valley is always tough, but I'm not ready to admit defeat. Same goes with Wisconsin...we get them at home so I think it will be a great game...very close. So I see one likely loss, two games up in the air, Washington is a possible loss...and the rest of the schedule is likely wins. If they drop a game outside of those games, it will probably be an ugly year for the Buckeyes. Hopefully they don't have a hangover from last year. With all the new players, that seems less unlikely to occur.
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Old 07-09-2007, 06:15 PM   #4
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Actually I need to change that up a little, move the Bucks up to 3rd. I have Michigan losing at Wisconsin, Penn State losing at Michigan, Ohio State losing at Penn State and at Michigan, and Wisconsin losing at Penn State and at Ohio State. Pretty scary that 5 teams could easily win 10 games from the Big Ten. Just shows the giant divide between the top four and the other six. It's hard to count Iowa since they only PSU and Wisconsin from the upper echelon and will probably lose both games.

I think the Buckeyes have the talent to defend their Big Ten title, especially if they gain a lot of momentum from an 8-0 start. But when they go into Happy Valley they will be playing a caliber of team that they won't have seen yet. Over their first eight games Purdue is probably the biggest "challenge" for them. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all much better teams than the Boilermakers and the Buckeyes have to face 2 of those 3 on the road.
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:50 PM   #5
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Very good job Alex. Iowa has a good shot, simply b/c of their schedule. I like Penn State to win the whole thing. 1 loss at the most.
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:54 PM   #6
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Nice work Alex. I can't add anything to that since IM not a Big Ten fan. It is hard for me however to believe that Illinois will finish 10th. And something else Alex, Why is it called the Big Ten?
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Old 07-09-2007, 09:27 PM   #7
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Good stuff. I agree with Dano, I just dont see Illinois finishing 10th no matter how terrible Ron Choke is.
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Old 07-10-2007, 12:43 AM   #8
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There were ten teams in the league before Penn State joined. Rather than change the name they just continued to call it the Big Ten.

Here's the deal with Illinois. I think they will be a much improved team but they play a brutal schedule. They still don't have the talent to beat Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa. That's five losses. Northwestern, at Minnesota, and at Indiana are their best chances for victory in the Big Ten. As I noted it is possible for them to sweep those three and go 7-5 but I just don't see it. Zook is a lousy gameday coach. He will cost them one of those three games. I think Northwestern is a better team, they draw even with Indiana, and they're better than Minnesota. This team is still a year away. I think with one more Zook class we can really start talking about Illinois being a 7-8 win team.
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Old 07-10-2007, 03:49 PM   #9
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Looks good Alex.

I'm with ya on most of this. My picks...

1. Wisconsin (8-0, 12-0)

2. Michigan (7-1, 11-1)

3. Penn St. (6-2, 10-2)

4. TIE
Iowa (5-3, 9-3)
Ohio St. (5-3, 9-3)
Purdue (5-3, 9-3)

7. TIE
Michigan St. (2-6, 6-6)
N'western (2-6, 6-6)
Illinois (2-6, 5-7)
Indiana (2-6, 5-7)

11. Minnesota (0-8, 4-8)
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Old 07-13-2007, 10:55 AM   #10
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I see Wisconsin winning it all in 2007-08.
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