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Old 11-01-2008, 09:49 AM   #1
Nate
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Default Hot Stove 2008-2009

Alright, guys, now that the season's over, let's talk off-season! There should be some interesting moves forthcoming that bear discussion. CC? Manny?

I'll start by posting a link to ESPN's top 10 stories to watch according to Tim Kurkjian. But naturally, both the Yankees (oooh, they missed the playoffs...) and Red Sox MUST be mentioned. It is ESPN after all...
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Old 11-01-2008, 09:53 AM   #2
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To give us an idea of when things might happen, I thought I'd provide the off-season schedule from MLB.com:

• Oct. 30 - Nov. 13: Free-agency filing period, which began with the last out of the World Series and lasts for 15 days.
• Nov. 3-6: General Managers Meetings, Dana Point, Calif.
• Nov. 5-18: Awards weeks.
• Nov. 20: Deadline for clubs to file Minor League and Major League reserve lists -- players protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
• Dec. 1: Deadline for clubs to offer salary arbitration to their ranked free agents -- who then will have six days to decided whether to accept or decline.
• Dec. 5: The executive board of the players union holds its annual meeting, in Orlando, Fla.
• Dec. 7: Deadline for free agents to accept their 2008 clubs' arbitration offer.
• Dec. 8-11: Winter Meetings, Las Vegas, Nev.
• Dec. 11: Rule 5 Draft.
• Dec. 12: Deadline to offer contracts to rostered players
• Jan. 5-15: Filing period for players eligible for salary arbitration.
• Jan. 19: Players and management representatives formally exchange salary figures filed for arbitration.
• Feb. 1-21: Salary arbitration hearings, Phoenix.
• Feb. 14, 17: Spring Training reporting dates for position players, pitchers on World Baseball Classic rosters.
• Feb. 22: Mandatory reporting date for non-World Baseball Classic players.
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Old 11-01-2008, 12:05 PM   #3
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For the first time ever I care little for the offseason moves. I would like the Phillies to resign Pat Burrell, but other than that, I don't really care what they do.

Although, if they put Ryan Howard's arbitration hearing on PPV it would sell tons.
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Old 11-01-2008, 04:36 PM   #4
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Redsox are looking at some Japanese pitching.... I think they are considering Texiera too... but that doesn't sit well with me. They need to keep Youk as long as they can. Plus they have Lowell at 3rd...

Manny will be in Pinstripes by the end of November...
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Old 11-01-2008, 05:20 PM   #5
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Yeah, I think Manny will end up with the Yankees as well. He seems to have a pretty big ego and will want the attention that NY will bring over anywhere else.

Someone will overpay for Teixiera. He is an overrated player, but will be loved by those who think clutch does not exist.
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Old 11-02-2008, 12:24 AM   #6
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Tex will have a lot of suitors this off-season. The Angels have a lot of money to spend and I'm not sure he didn't enjoy his time there.
CC Sabbathia may give the Brewers a "home-town" discount to stay in the NL. The Yankees will have to pay him a whole lot to bring him into camp.
Manny will want a long-term contract, but I don't see anyone giving him 5 years. I can see 3 with a couple of option years, but that's as far as I'd go. He won't get A'Rod $$$, but he should get $20M/year.
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:36 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HibachiDG View Post
For the first time ever I care little for the offseason moves. I would like the Phillies to resign Pat Burrell, but other than that, I don't really care what they do.

Although, if they put Ryan Howard's arbitration hearing on PPV it would sell tons.
The Phils just need to go ahead and bite the bullet and give him a nice long term deal now and skip arbitration altogether.
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:38 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by boston_aloha View Post
Redsox are looking at some Japanese pitching.... I think they are considering Texiera too... but that doesn't sit well with me. They need to keep Youk as long as they can. Plus they have Lowell at 3rd...

Manny will be in Pinstripes by the end of November...
But is Lowell even going to be able to play third? I keep reading that the Sox are very concerned that he will not be nearly the defensive 3B he was prior to the hip injury.

I don't know that Manny to the Yanks is as slam dunk of a deal as everyone likes to think. He showed little to no interest in playing for either the Mets or Yanks the last time around when everyone was so certain that was where he was going to end up.
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Old 11-03-2008, 01:54 PM   #9
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Quote:
The Phils just need to go ahead and bite the bullet and give him a nice long term deal now and skip arbitration altogether.
Yeah, pretty much.

Quote:
I don't know that Manny to the Yanks is as slam dunk of a deal as everyone likes to think. He showed little to no interest in playing for either the Mets or Yanks the last time around when everyone was so certain that was where he was going to end up.
Who else is going to pay him what he wants?
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:21 PM   #10
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I don't know, but to be honest I think Manny to either NY team could be a disaster. One of the things that turned him off in Boston was how harsh the fans and media could be on players there and NY is just as bad. In LA people do not seem to care so much and I think that is why he really flourished out there. Manny is so hard to predict because he is just not mentally all together. I have a feeling that he would backslide in NY once a reporter or the fans get on him for something.
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Old 11-03-2008, 07:17 PM   #11
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Why on earth would anyone want Pat Burrell? He sucks and his numbers are grossly inflated by the Philly ballpark.

I don't think Manny has ever had a big issue with media. It's mostly been with people on the team and in the clubhouse. It's not like he would ***** and moan like Randy Johnson or anything.

Teixiera is probably one of the ten best players in baseball. He'll get overpaid, but so will almost everyone else in free agency. Still, he's as close to as a guarantee in terms of production you can find in baseball.

And clutch is mostly an arbitrary/imaginary trait in my opinion. I think it applies to very few people in baseball (David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez come to mind). Otherwise it's just something used by the media to make a point.

Postseason career
Derek Jeter - 309 /.377/.469
Player A - .279 /.361 /.483

One is considered a clutch player while the other is thought of as a colossal choker.
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Old 11-03-2008, 09:14 PM   #12
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Quote:
Teixiera is probably one of the ten best players in baseball. He'll get overpaid, but so will almost everyone else in free agency. Still, he's as close to as a guarantee in terms of production you can find in baseball.
I think a top ten offensive player is a stretch. Top 20, maybe. Teixiera hits for a nice average and does nothing bad. He's just not going to be a good value for what you pay him. I think he's more a 30-35 HR guy rather than the 40-45 potential that he was thought to carry. Can you put him on your team in a roll where he's the third best offensive producer? (Behind a big HR/RBI guy and someone at the top of the lineup that can get things going) Sure.

Quote:
Why on earth would anyone want Pat Burrell? He sucks and his numbers are grossly inflated by the Philly ballpark.
This just isn't true. Well, the ballpark thing. If you think he sucks, fine. The ballpark thing is incorrect, though.

He hit .270 on the road this year, .230 at home. 9 more homers on the road. More RBI on the road. Going back to when the ballpark opened you can find years where he hit the same, better at home, better on the road and this year he was better on the road.
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Old 11-04-2008, 12:06 AM   #13
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Considering defense, Teixiera is awesome and Burrell sucks.
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Old 11-04-2008, 01:44 AM   #14
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I wasn't really arguing whether Burrell sucks or not, just was pointing out that the idea that "his numbers are grossly inflated" is incorrect.

Teixiera is great defensively, but it's not like he is playing shortstop. I wasn't even comparing the two, but if you can get Burrell for 2-3 years at like 13-14 mill per that's a way better move than Teixiera at 6 years for 20mill per...
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Old 11-04-2008, 04:01 PM   #15
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Quote:
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Teixiera is great defensively, but it's not like he is playing shortstop. I wasn't even comparing the two, but if you can get Burrell for 2-3 years at like 13-14 mill per that's a way better move than Teixiera at 6 years for 20mill per...
I would normally agree with the 2-3 for some money than than 6 years for a lot of money. I probably do for this situation as well (let's face, almost no player should be paid $20 million a year), but I'll play Devil's Advocate for Tex.

I've read somewhere that WPA (Win Probability Added, a sabermetric stat that says how many wins a player is worth compared to an average player... something like that, I'm paraphrasing) is worth something like $3.5 million per win in the free agent market. Tex last year had the fourth-best WPA in baseball at 5.87, only behind Manny, Berkman and Pujols.

So theoretically Mark's free market value is $20+ million a year. Now, that's all theoretical stuff and I'm personally against those kinds of deals unless it's a really rare and special player (Pedro in the late 90's, A-Rod, Pujols, etc.). Still Mark is an elite player, in his prime and has less played less than 130 games in a season.

I think this kind of player and contract is only worth it for a team that's a serious contender for the playoffs. Angels, Yanks, Red Sox... and maybe the Dodgers (although they have other junk to worry about). If you think about it, Mark is probably the closest thing to a guarantee you'll find the free agent market. If I were a legit contender I'd break the bank on him as opposed to C.C. or even spend less for a Burrell type. At least that way I know I spent a lot for a player that will likely be great instead of spend some for a player that might be good.
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