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Old 09-11-2013, 10:52 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 2 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 7-8-1. Season totals: 7-8-1, Pct. .469. Best Bets: 1-1-1, Pct. .500.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.




THURSDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND 21, N.Y. Jets 16 (+12 1/2) - If their performance in the opener at Buffalo is any guide, then the Patriots really are going to struggle on offense post-Wes Welker, and even more so until the return of Rob Gronkowski, which won't be here - and Danny Amendola, brought in to supplant Welker, is likely out too. And rather surprisingly, the home team in this supposedly vicious rivalry is 0-5 against the spread in the last five renewals of it. There is no good reason to lay this number.



SUNDAY

PHILADELPHIA 27, San Diego 21 (+7 1/2) - Even T.O. would probably get tired in Chip Kelly's offense - and who came up with this line: Captain Video from that episode of The Honeymooners? Take the points despite the home team's current four-game win streak in the series, including in 2005 when the Eagles won on a late return for a TD of a blocked field goal that clearly never should have been attempted to begin with.

BUFFALO 20 (+2 1/2), Carolina 13 - If you've been betting on the Panthers in September since 2009, or on artificial turf in any month since 2008, you don't have a whole lot of success stories to share: Carolina is 2-12 straight up and 3-10-1 against the line in the former situation, and 4-17 and 7-14 respectively in the latter. And their secondary returns to the scene of the crime, where they allowed Jim Kelly to scorch them for an all-time NFL record 44 yards per completion in 1995 - and wouldn't you know? It was in Week 2.

ATLANTA 28, St. Louis 17 (+7) - It is pretty hard to go against Matt Ryan at home - at least in the regular season anyway, in which he's 34-4 straight up and 24-13-1 against the spread as an NFL starter - and one of those losses/non-covers occurred in a 2009 game in which he left early due to an injury, and another was a "Siesta Bowl" in last year's regular-season finale. It will take a great deal more than a desperate, come-from-behind, non-spread-covering win over Arizona at home to make me change my overall opinion of the Rams.

INDIANAPOLIS 20, Miami 14 (+3) - This number is perfectly safe to lay on the Colts, who have also won four in a row over Miami, covering in three. But it will not be without the usual anxious moments.

BALTIMORE 28, Cleveland 23 (+7) - The Ravens couldn't be as helpless defensively as what they showed in Denver, could they? And they've beaten Cleveland ten consecutive times - but the home team has taken the collar against the spread in the last seven, and while the Browns have lost eight in a row on artificial turf, they're 4-3-1 against the line therein. Reluctantly taking.

CHICAGO 31, Minnesota 10 (+6) - Since the Vikings sat down to eat their turkey dinner on Thanksgiving Day way back in 2000, they have gone 16-46 straight up and 23-37-2 against the spread on grass, and 18-57 outright and 25-47-3 pointwise outdoors. They're also 1-11 straight up and 1-9-2 against the line in their last dozen in Chi-Town. The Bears go from the business end of a best-bet selection in Week 1 (which produced a push) to such a selection themselves in Week 2.

GREEN BAY 35, Washington 24 (+7) - Some definite positives for the team whose name Peter King dares not speak from Monday night, including a career-high 329 passing yards from RG3. But there haven't been too many positives for them, and even fewer for those who bet on them, when they pay a call on the Packers, as in 2-4 straight up and 0-4-2 against the spread in the last six visits, one of which was actually in Milwaukee and not Green Bay.

Dallas 24 (+1), KANSAS CITY 17 - I'm staying off the seemingly jam-packed KC hype train for now. Sure, the Chiefs are significantly better than last year's overall caboose riders, but not by enough to warrant the favorite's role in this spot.

HOUSTON 33, Tennessee 23 (+8 1/2) - Not quite convinced that Matt Schaub is Super Bowl-ready, but Jake Locker might be scrap heap-ready and the short week and trip back home shouldn't be an issue for the Texans.

New Orleans 27, TAMPA BAY 20 (+3 1/2) - Josh Freeman will never be confused with Matt Ryan: He's 11-15 straight up and 9-16-1 against the spread at home as a starter, compared with 13-17 and 19-11 on the road; and nobody on the Buccaneers has caused much recent confusion for the Saints, to whom they have lost their last three by a combined 103 to 44.

ARIZONA 23 (+1), Detroit 13 - In my opinion, Ndamukong Suh should be suspended for the entire season for his latest episode of intent-to-injure dirty play - and if he ever does it again he should be banned for life. And the casinos would be doing a favor by banning for life anybody who has been betting on the road team in this series: It has neglected to cover on a whopping ten straight occasions, and the Lions haven't either won or covered in the desert since 1993.

N.Y. GIANTS 38 (+5 1/2), Denver 21 - The Giants are 5 1/2-point home underdogs? In the words of John McEnroe, you cannot be serious! Plus the home team herein has covered in the last five meetings (not counting the Giants' 39-20 win in Super Bowl XXI, which, of course, neither team hosted) and the Broncos haven't won in the shadow of Moonachie's oil drums (made famous by former New York City mayor Ed Koch, who died earlier this year) since all the way back in 1980. Denver is also 6-12 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet. Eli finally nails his older brother after two losses to him while Peyton was with the Colts.

OAKLAND 16, Jacksonville 6 (+5 1/2) - I had a nightmare last night. I had a 50-yard-line seat at the Jaguars-Browns game in Cleveland on December 1st. The final score was 2-2.

SEATTLE 17, San Francisco 10 (+3) - The Seahawks can be short on artistic impression (as they were, rather palpably, in the opener at Carolina) while being long on technical merit - particularly at home, where they won all eight a year ago by an average of 18 1/2 points a pop and covered in all but a semi-meaningless Week 17 game against St. Louis. And no matter how great Colin Kaepernick proves to be, he's still not Steve Young - and I bring up Steve Young here because since Young retired, the 49ers are 22-39 straight up on artificial turf, including a 42-13 pasting in Seattle last December with Kaepernick under center.


MONDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI 21, Pittsburgh 17 (+6 1/2) - The Steelers picked up right where they left off from last year in their opener, losing three starters to injuries, at least one of them - and possibly all three - for the season. But at least they managed to keep themselves out of "C'Mon, Man" territory - which is more than one can say for Bengals linebacker Rey Maualuga, whose irrelevant personal foul nearing the final minute gift-wrapped a comeback win for the Bears in Chicago. At a guess, take the points.


BEST BETS: CHICAGO, ARIZONA, N.Y. GIANTS
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Last edited by Anthony; 09-12-2013 at 07:04 AM.
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Old 09-11-2013, 07:44 PM   #2
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The Giants will have to do a lot better job of handling the ball against Denver than they did against Dallas to win this game. They were entirely too sloppy to beat anyone last week.
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