|09-25-2013, 06:19 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 4 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 10-6. Season totals: 24-21-3, Pct. .531. Best Bets: 4-4-1, Pct. .500.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
ST. LOUIS 17 (+3 1/2), San Francisco 16 - Instead of wasting his time with RG3, perhaps Donovan McNabb should try to mentor Colin Kaepernick - since McNabb knows all too well what Kaepernick is going through right now, with no deep speed to stretch the field, for that was McNabb's lot in life throughout his first five years with the Eagles. And the Rams have already seen Kaepernick twice, and in better (for him) circumstances - and they beat him once and tied him once, and the 49ers have covered in just one of their last six against St. Louis.
Pittsburgh 20 (P), Minnesota 14 - What seemed like a fairly appealing matchup to import to England a month ago is anything but now. And just how "neutral" is this field, given that it's both outdoors and on natural grass - venues on which the Vikings have hardly excelled going back a dozen years.
BUFFALO 14 (+4), Baltimore 13 - The Ravens are ripe for a letdown after inexplicably blowing out the Texans, and they were still the original Cleveland Browns the last time the franchise won in New York State (Buffalo of course being the home of that state's only NFL team) - in 1986. Another home underdog worth taking.
Indianapolis 17, JACKSONVILLE 6 (+9 1/2) - Last week could prove to be a take-off game for the Andrew Luck - or should we now say the Andrew Luck-Trent Richardson? - Colts, since they not only showed that they can beat a good team on the road, but also that they can actually blow somebody away; well come to think of it, they have already proven they can do that in Jacksonville, where they won by 17 last year.
TAMPA BAY 16, Arizona 13 (+2 1/2) - The Buccaneers are all but in mutiny against Greg Schiano (!), but they haven't lost to the Cards at home since 1988 and with this line they're practically begging you to take Tampa Bay. But do so only if you absolutely have to; e.g., you participate in one of those picking leagues that have been sprouting up recently as an alternative to fantasy football, that require you to make selections on every game, either straight up or against the spread (they come in both forms).
DETROIT 31, Chicago 27 (+2 1/2) - The Bears are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 versus Detroit, yet just 5-5 against the spread. Still not convinced that replacing Lovie Smith with Marc Trestman was the right thing to do, and it is the dreaded two-and-a-half-point number again.
Cincinnati 23, CLEVELAND 20 (+5) - Brian Hoyer as the next Brian Sipe? Not quite ready to go that far after only one game - but the home team in this one has covered in five of the last six so be willing to take the points.
KANSAS CITY 21, N.Y. Giants 7 (+4) - The Giants are killing me this year - and teams that got shut out one week have been killing their backers in their next game to the tune of 9-26 straight up and 14-21 against the spread since 2007. Wouldn't be surprised if Fat Boy sweeps his former division.
HOUSTON 27 (+3), Seattle 13 - Throw out Houston's egg-laying from last week, since it was on their kryptonite, i.e., artificial turf; and natural grass has had almost the same effect on the Seahawks, who are 7-16 straight up and 8-13-2 against the spread on that surface since 2009. Plus the home team has won both of the previous meetings herein by a lopsided 76-17. Los Tejanos (getting in the spirit of the NFL-proclaimed Hispanic Heritage Month), all day.
TENNESSEE 26, N.Y. Jets 24 (+5) - It may not be looking like a thing of complete beauty, but the Jets are actually getting it done with Geno Smith at quarterback - and this is another defense that Smith can definitely score on. Take the points.
DENVER 63, Philadelphia 24 (+11) - And yes, I am absolutely serious about this score. At least the Raiders have the size and aggressiveness on defense to force turnovers, as they did twice in fact on Monday night. But the Eagles defense is completely devoid of those attributes and Peyton Manning has a solid shot to break Norm Van Brocklin's single-game passing-yards record. That mark is 554 yards, and was set 62 years ago Saturday, by the way; 600 for P-Man is a very real possibility on the near-anniversary.
Washington 30, OAKLAND 23 (+3) - If RG3 should be benched, then the entire Washington defense should be banished to Bogeyland! But with the home team in this series working on a five-game losing streak both ways, look for a fairy-tale ending.
Dallas 27, SAN DIEGO 21 (+1) - All four NFC East teams are playing all four AFC West teams this week - and as in the above matchup, home has not been the place to be here either, the host side having lost and non-covered four straight. But try not to let your heart sink if the Chargers come out in their white jerseys (as they did in their opener against the other Texas team), thus forcing the Cowboys to wear blue.
ATLANTA 24, New England 17 (P) - Matt Ryan at home and you don't have to lay any points? Pats offense remains severely limited by injuries.
NEW ORLEANS 45, Miami 14 (+5) - Not believing the Miami hype for a minute. Saints hold a huge class edge and will roll.
BEST BETS: HOUSTON, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
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