|10-16-2013, 03:55 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 7 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 4-11. Season totals: 43-45-4, Pct. .489. Best Bets: 9-7-2, Pct. .556.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
Seattle 17, ARIZONA 14 (+6 1/2) - At 0-2-1 against the spread in their last three, the Seahawks are suddenly looking downright human, and the home team has won four in a row in this one so take the points - and even more so if the roof is closed, as Seattle is 6-16-3 against the line inside NFL domes starting with their loss to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL (at Detroit).
New England 31, N.Y. JETS 13 (+3 1/2) - But home has most definitely not been the place to be here - at least not against the spread as the home team has taken the collar in the last six therein. And the Pats appear to be an absolute bargain at this price whether Rob Gronkowski makes his long-awaited return this week or not.
Dallas 38 (+2 1/2), PHILADELPHIA 31 - Everyone from Bill Bergey to Buddy Ryan has to be thoroughly embarrassed over the state of the current Philly defense, and the Eagles own the longest-active home losing streak in the NFL, at eight games - and non-covered in all eight also. Cowboys showed the Denver game was no mirage with their strong showing Sunday night against Washington.
Chicago 35 (+1 1/2), WASHINGTON 21 - The RG3 trade isn't looking so brilliant all of a sudden: No first-round draft pick again in 2014, and any big splash in free agency is unlikely next spring given the double-secret salary-cap probation they will still be on for one more year. Even though the Bears have lost the last four in the series, right now they are the better team by two touchdowns or thereabouts, and expect the final score to confirm that.
CAROLINA 13, St. Louis 10 (+6 1/2) - The Rams are actually getting the hang of this natural-grass thing, as in 3-3-1 straight up in their last seven (the tie coming at San Francisco as a huge underdog last year) and more importantly at least with what we do here is concerned, 5-2 against the spread. Another favorite wins but doesn't cover.
MIAMI 24, Buffalo 10 (+7 1/2) - Thaddeus Lewis' forced debut last week was a lot better than anyone had a right to expect - but that was at home, and it's generally a different story altogether when quarterbacks like this have to go on the road. And going against the Bills on grass can never be a bad idea, and they're 8-12 against the line in fatigue games (Miami had a bye last week).
ATLANTA 20, Tampa Bay 3 (+7) - The Falcons would pass the effective "point of no return" with a loss, in that only one team in NFL history has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-5, and that was 43 years ago, when the Bengals in fact made it after a 1-6 start. Atlanta's many injuries on both sides of the line of scrimmage are acknowledged, but this will be Mike Glennon's first NFL start on the road, same as Thaddeus Lewis.
San Diego 16, JACKSONVILLE 10 (+7 1/2) - Now that they have finally shown signs of life, the Jaguars are certified kosher, at least against the spread anyway. The home underdog covers in the Cut-Rate Coaches' Bowl.
Cincinnati 27 (+2 1/2), DETROIT 20 - The Lions are still getting too much respect from the oddsmakers, and the Bengals have won the last four meetings and haven't lost in Motown since the year they started 1-6 and made the playoffs. Tab for the upset - or at least it's officially an upset.
San Francisco 30, TENNESSEE 13 (+5) - What do the last ten opponents of the Seattle Seahawks have in common? Answer: None of them covered the spread in their next game - and all but two of them lost straight up as well.
PITTSBURGH 17, Baltimore 10 (+2 1/2) - I'm willing to trust the Steelers to win right back at this conceptually favorite-friendly number, in a game in which no particular factor stands out.
GREEN BAY 20, Cleveland 6 (+10 1/2) - The Browns had to quash Tim Tebow rumors on Tuesday! Packer receiving corps is annihilated by injuries at the moment, but the home team has now covered in nine consecutive Green Bay games dating back to last December so reluctantly willing to lay it.
KANSAS CITY 27, Houston 10 (+4 1/2) - I think CBS would take back its decision to move this game into the late time slot if they could - and if the fans in Houston are looking for a web address for a site about what the Texans should do with Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub, I hate to inform them that MoveOn.org is already taken.
Denver 34, INDIANAPOLIS 31 (+6 1/2) - Like the Seahawks, the Broncos have come back to earth, from a relative standpoint in any case - and they've dropped five straight to the Colts by an average of exactly two TDs per outing (174-104) and Denver is 7-13 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet, so this should decide the outcome of road favorites vs. home underdogs for this week in the latter's favor, even though two of the former are best bet worthy.
N.Y. GIANTS 24, Minnesota 13 (+3) - One of these days Eli Manning will forget to throw those interceptions, while one of these days Josh Freeman will assume the starting quarterback mantle in Minnesota, but presumably not in this spot. And if former Eagles owner Norman Braman were the current owner of the Vikings, you can be sure that he'd be kvetchin' to high heaven about the Giants going from a Thursday night game last week to this week's Monday nighter (Braman actually did succeed in getting the NFL to change its out-of-division scheduling format starting in 1988, as you may recall - and the change helped the Eagles win the NFC East that year).
BEST BETS: NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, SAN FRANCISCO
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
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