|10-30-2013, 05:29 AM||#1|
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA
Anthony's Week 9 NFL Pointspread Picks
Last week: 6-7. Season totals: 57-59-4, Pct. .492. Best Bets: 12-10-2, Pct. .542.
Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.
Cincinnati 23, MIAMI 10 (+1 1/2) - Keep rollin' them sevens with the road favorites on Thursday night, and keep winnin' all them pots. Home team has also lost three in a row straight up in this one, and has a five-game losing streak against the spread.
New Orleans 28, N.Y. JETS 14 (+4) - This is the first official week of the cold weather season, and New Orleans is 6-12-1 against the line since 1997 as a visitor in cold weather; i.e., is a warm-weather or indoor team playing on the road at a northern outdoor stadium in November or later. But the Saints have beaten the Jets in five of the last six meetings, covered in six of the last seven, and are 6-0 versus the points lifetime against the Jets in New York or New Jersey.
BUFFALO 16 (+3 1/2), Kansas City 13 - The Chiefs are leaving it in the hands of the judges so to speak far too often for my liking, instead of going for and getting the knockout as teams like Denver and San Francisco have been doing; and this is the week it comes back to bite them, playing somewhere they haven't won at since 1986 (six losses, both ways, by an imposing 180-66); and for that matter, Buffalo is 5-1 outright and 6-0 pointwise in the last six in the series regardless of where played, and KC is 9-27 straight up and 14-21-1 against the line since 1998 as a visitor on the carpet. Upset special.
San Diego 27, WASHINGTON 20 (P) - In the same week that the stock market crashed in 1929, the Redskins crashed in the second half last Sunday in Denver, and can't see them recovering from that in their very next game. And head-to-head series worms can take their time turning: The Chargers are 3-0 in the three most recent renewals, but before that they were 0-6. Additionally, Washington is 5-13 both ways in fatigue games (San Diego had a bye last week). What do you know? The cold-weather theory loses both of the games in the first week it applies.
CAROLINA 24, Atlanta 14 (+7 1/2) - Last week's loss iin Arizona was probably a breakthrough game in reverse for the Falcons, prompting Tony Gonzalez to make some statements that had to hurt team morale. Until Roddy White (hamstring) comes back, defenses can key on the just-returned Steven Jackson, and the Atlanta offense will remain on the skids.
Tennessee 13, ST. LOUIS 6 (+3) - This one's a toughie. The Titans/Oilers franchise hasn't beaten the Rams on the road since 1981, but they have covered four in a row over them and are 8-2 against the line in this decade on rugs. St. Louis should have signed Vince Young or Tim Tebow.
DALLAS 28, Minnesota 13 (+10 1/2) - The Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 both ways this year when facing losing teams, outscoring them 115-57, compared with 0-4 straight up, albeit 2-1-1 against the spread, against over-.500 competition - and the resulting 6-1-1 overall spread record is second best in the league behind San Diego, and even that on a technicality, in that the Chargers, at 6-1 versus the points, have an .857 covering percentage, while Dallas' comes out to .813 because the push (at Kansas City in Week 2) is officially reckoned as half a win and half a loss. Vikings are a no-go until the smoke at the quarterback position clears.
OAKLAND 24 (+1), Philadelphia 10 - As if the Eagles weren't undersized enough on defense already: Tuesday's trade of nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga to New England makes it even smaller, as Sopoaga outweighs his apparent successor, Bennie Logan, by more than 20 pounds (and Logan is a rookie to boot). So get all you can on Darren McFadden in fantasy, as he leads Oakland's successful bid to keep Philadelphia winless in that city in franchise history (0-3 by a combined 95-36 coming into this game).
SEATTLE 17, Tampa Bay 6 (+16 1/2) - After ranking 27th in the league in passing in his rookie season, Russell Wilson is going one worse so far this year, as the Seahawks are 28th in net passing yards per game. Not only that, but they lost one of the starters on their already less-than-wonderful receiving corps (Sidney Rice) to a season-ending ACL tear on Monday night. No reason to lay this number - especially with the Buccaneers having ten days to prepare for this game to Seattle's six.
Baltimore 31, CLEVELAND 10 (+3) - File the benching of Brandon Weeden in favor of Jason Campbell under "Desperation, Accomplishing Nothing" - and nothing is exactly what the Browns have accomplished against the Ravens for a very long time, losing eleven in a row to them, including taking an 0-for-5 collar at home not only straight up but against the spread as well. Baltimore has also won and covered in five consecutive post-bye games. The week's best bet.
NEW ENGLAND 30, Pittsburgh 13 (+6 1/2) - Why the Steelers didn't pry Maurice Jones-Drew from Jacksonville before the trade deadline is a mystery. On second thought, it isn't: The Pittsburgh front office, if not necessarily the players, has gone in the tank. Pats should have no problem easily taking this.
Indianapolis 23 (+1), HOUSTON 7 - Matt Schaub likely won't even be listed as probable when the official injury report comes out on Friday, yet undrafted no-prospect Case Keenum has already been named the Texans starting quarterback. What does that tell you? It tells me that the changing of the guard in the AFC South will be confirmed Sunday night.
GREEN BAY 27, Chicago 10 (+11) - The Packers are showing tremendous guts the way their running game and defense are making up for the injuries to their receivers. Now that Josh McClown has had 15 days to get nervous, look for him to show his true colors on prime time - and the result will be Green Bay's seventh straight win over the Bears all told (and sixth consecutive cover), and sixth in a row over Chicago at Lambeau (improving their spread record therein to 5-1).
BEST BETS: CINCINNATI, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE
To the clutch, there is only one sort of plebian - and that is the choke artist.
Last edited by Anthony; 10-30-2013 at 09:33 AM.
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