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Old 11-12-2014, 03:17 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 11 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 8-5. Season totals: 71-74-2, Pct. .490. Best Bets: 13-17, Pct. .433.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

MIAMI
24, Buffalo 10 (+5) - It is pretty safe to now proclaim the Kyle Orton experiment in Buffalo the failure that everyone had to know it would be - and with Doug Marrone showing no inclination to bring the curtain down on said experiment, there would appear to be no reason to believe that the Bills can beat their long-term "Lipper average" on natural grass: 32-61 straight up and 41-50-2 against the spread dating all the way back to 1995. And guess who's 8-1 at picking Dolphins games against the spread this year?


SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS
21 (+3), San Francisco 20 - The 49ers got good news on Monday - defensive tackle tackle Ray McDonald will not face domestic violence charges, and with it a possible suspension, but bad news on Tuesday - linebacker Patrick Willis will miss not only this game, but the rest of the season. But their recent games against the Giants have produced very little but bad news: Five losses in the last six, and six non-covers in the last seven. Taking a chance on the upset in spite of not only the Giants' four-game losing streak, but also their steadily deteriorating level of play during said streak.

WASHINGTON 23, Tampa Bay 21 (+7) - In his return, RG3 couldn't even beat a Vikings team that was playing in cold weather at home for only the second time since 1981 (and had gotten blown out 40-14 in 2010 in the first after a blizzard had punctured the roof at Triple H) - so why lay this number, especially in a series whose last eight meetings have all been decided by seven points or less?

CAROLINA 38, Atlanta 17 (+1 1/2) - Atlanta will never win back-to-back games on grass and outdoors - and despite their recent travails the Panthers should be favored by a lot more than this.

Houston 17 (+3), CLEVELAND 13 - I've always liked Ryan Mallett - and he would certainly win a street fight against Russell Wilson! - and he should be well-prepared for his first NFL start, been as the Texans had a bye last week. And we all saw what happened to the Browns the week after they pulled off a huge division win earlier this year.

CHICAGO 35, Minnesota 17 (+3) - If the Bears have one ounce of pride left, they will the send the Vikings to their 13th loss in their last 14 games at Soldier Field, and do it in convincing fashion. It would also drop Minnesota's spread record therein to 2-10-2, and hand the Vikings their fifth consecutive loss and non-cover following a bye.

ST. LOUIS 24 (+8), Denver 23 - You have to admire the Rams' scrappiness - and the Broncos haven't beaten them on the road since 1982 (four losses, with one cover), and Denver is 2-7 against the line in domes since 2005, and also 8-18 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet. Super Upset Special - and it's big balloons!

KANSAS CITY 23 (+1), Seattle 17 - The Seahawks are so desperate for a wide receiver after throwing Percy Harvin under the bus that they tried to persuade Randy Moss to come out of retirement! Then again, Seattle is 31st in the NFL in passing (gaining 194 yards per game), while Kansas City leads the league against the pass (with a 205-yard average yield which is arguably more a reflection on the pass-happy state of today's NFL than on the KC pass defense). And the success that the Chiefs have enjoyed against them of late - 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in the last seven, including 3-0 both ways at Arrowhead - simply cannot be ignored.

NEW ORLEANS 37, Cincinnati 20 (+5 1/2) - Cincy's 5-3-1 record is misleading, in that six of their nine games have been at home - and not only is this one on the road, but it's also indoors, where the Bengals have won just six of their last 19. The Saints, who were monumentally unlucky to lose their game last week, are emerging as the least of four evils in the NFC South.

SAN DIEGO 27, Oakland 14 (+9 1/2) - The Chargers may have swaggered in the first meeting in Week 6, leading to a narrow 31-28 win (and non-cover) at Oakland in Tony Sparano's now seemingly interim head coaching debut. They won't make the same mistake twice.

GREEN BAY 38, Philadelphia 24 (+4 1/2) - As the result of a tweaking of the tie-breaking procedures which has received scant attention that the NFL made at the time of the 2002 realignment - elevating common opponents above conference record to break a tie for a division title - this game actually doesn't mean a great deal to the Eagles, at least as regards the situation in the NFC East. And similarly lost in all the newfound Mark Sanchez mania has been his throwing accuracy, which has been ordinary to say the least (20-for-37 against Carolina Monday night); and yes, while the Eagles' pass rush has a nine-sack game (also recorded Monday night) and an eight-sack game this year, they also have three no-sack games - and how completely the karmic wheel can turn: Last November the Eagles missed Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau because Rodgers had a broken collarbone - now the Packers get to miss Nick Foles because Foles has a broken collarbone; and the Packer offense has been absolutely unstoppable at home, with 166 points in four 2014 home games.

ARIZONA 21, Detroit 10 (+2 1/2) - I don't care about Palmer's injury - at least not this week: The Lions have not won or covered in the desert since 1993, taking an 0-for-7 collar; and the home team in this series all told has covered eleven in a row, and Detroit is 15-53 straight up since 2001 as a visitor on the grass.

INDIANAPOLIS 34, New England 27 (+2 1/2) - Andrew Luck can hold his own against good teams - so long as he's at home, where's he's 8-1 straight up when facing teams with winning records, compared with 2-10 on the road (including teams with such records so far this season). Furthermore, the home team in this one has won six in a row - and is anybody looking as if they really want to take charge in the AFC?


MONDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh 17, TENNESSEE 14 (+5 1/2) - True, losing to Michael Vick, even now, is one thing, while losing to Zach Mettenberger would be another - but the Steelers are nonetheless 9-17 against the spread as a road favorite since 2009 so at a guess, take the points. But the "under" - the total opened at an inexplicable 47! - is a much better play than the Titans plus the five and a half.


BEST BETS: MIAMI, CAROLINA, ARIZONA
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