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Old 09-06-2017, 08:28 PM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 1 NFL Pointspread Picks

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.


THURSDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND
31, Kansas City 14 (+8) - Eight points seems a lot to spot a 12-win team from last year, but the Patriots haven't lost at home on opening day since 2000, and the Chiefs have not won in New England since 1990, losing six in a row at Foxboro and getting outscored 189-105, and Kansas City is 15-32 straight up and 21-25-1 against the line since 1998 as a visitor on the carpet.


SUNDAY

BUFFALO
24, N.Y. Jets 13 (+8 1/2) - Two bad teams but the Jets are really awful - and besides being 2-20 as a starter over the past three seasons, Josh McClown is 7-15 against the spread in those games, and some proverbial experts in the field are going so far as to tout the Bills as a good survivor pool pick this week.

WASHINGTON 31 (P), Philadelphia 21 - Kirk Cousins has always been hot against the Eagles - as in 102.9, his career passer rating against them, earned by going 124 out of 195 for 1,579 yards and a Colin Kaepernick-like 12 touchdowns against only three interceptions, greatly helping Washington beat Philadelphia in the last five meetings and covering in the last six.

Pittsburgh 24, CLEVELAND 10 (+9) - Cleveland 2.0 is 6-21 straight up and 15-21-1 against the spread lifetime against the Steelers and has lost 12 in a row on opening day, with a 2-10 spread record therein. Damn the big number and full speed ahead.

CINCINNATI 27, Baltimore 14 (+3) - This one looks like a slam dunk: The Bengals have beaten the Ravens in six of the last seven and are 5-1-1 in the spread in the septet, while Baltimore has lost five in a row in the City of Satan and six in a row as a visitor on the carpet, with only one cover.

Arizona 28, DETROIT 20 (+1) - A late-season meltdown from one season often carries over into the next season - and the Lions are in a state of perpetual meltdown against the Cardinals, losing seven straight against them. Carson Palmer and his murderers row of receivers are liable to pick the Detroit secondary apart.

Oakland 31 (+2), TENNESSEE 24 - And Derek Carr and his receivers should do the same against the 30th-ranked (a year ago) Tennessee pass defense - and why on earth are the Titans favored?

CHICAGO 14 (+7), Atlanta 13 - Let's get the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx off to a rollicking start by sticking with a loser - the Falcons, who haven't won in Chicago since 1983: Six losses by an imposing 159 to 70, getting shut out twice and held to a field goal on a third occasion. Super Upset Special! Big balloons!

HOUSTON 23, Jacksonville 3 (+5 1/2) - Remember when the Saints played their first home game after Hurricane Katrina? They smothered the Falcons by the above score - and the Jaguars have both lost six in a row to the Texans, and on rugs. And since Houston's last preseason game was canceled due to Hurricane Harvey (just as Hurricane Irma has forced the move of this week's Tampa Bay at Miami game to Week 11), the Texans are in effect coming off a bye, a role in which they have won and covered in their last three.

Indianapolis 14 (+3), L.A. RAMS 10 - This battle of maiden quarterbacks - Scott Tolzien, aka "The Hobbit" (0-2-1 as a starter) and Jared Goff (0-7) - mercifully will not be shown in most markets due to coverage of the U.S. Open tennis finals by CBS. With the bruising Matt Jones just signed by the Colts after he was cut by the petulant Jay Gruden, they may use him and ageless scatback Frank Gore to win with some old-school thunder and lightning in Andrew Luck's absence.

GREEN BAY 35, Seattle 17 (+3) - Game Of The Week? Try Blowout Of The Week: The Seahawks have not won at Lambeau since 1999, getting outscored 246-114 in seven losses, Seattle's lone cover therein coming in a six-point loss as a 6 1/2-point underdog in a 2003 wild-card playoff game. Seattle has also struggled on grass for the longest time, going 40-67-1 straight up on it dating all the way back to 1998. Best bet.

Carolina 17, SAN FRANCISCO 13 (+6) - Believe it or not, the 49ers have the NFL's longest active winning streak on opening day - and not only have they won six in a row in Week 1, but have done so by a combined 173 to 87, also covering the spread in all six. As such they should at least be trusted to cover in this spot.

N.Y. Giants 24 (+3 1/2), DALLAS 23 - Back and forth, back and forth as regards Ezekiel Elliott - but what is not back and forth is the Giants having beaten the Cowboys three in a row and going 4-0-1 pointwise in the last five against them. Giants are also a phat 20-9-1 against the spread since 2002 inside NFL domes.


MONDAY NIGHT

New Orleans
34 (+3 1/2), MINNESOTA 27 - Drew Brees against Sam Bradford - and Brees can lose by a field goal and you still cover? Plus the Saints have beaten the Vikings four straight.

DENVER 27, L.A. Chargers 10 (+3 1/2) - Just don't think the Broncos have regressed far enough to be only 3 1/2-point home favorites over the Chargers, from whom they have won 10 of the last 12.


BEST BETS: NEW ENGLAND, CINCINNATI, GREEN BAY
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