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Old 09-28-2017, 11:23 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 4 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 11-5. Season totals: 25-22, Pct. .532. Best Bets: 4-5, Pct. .444.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY
31, Chicago 14 (+7 1/2) - I'm going to throw out what the Bears did last week because they always beat the Steelers at home. But they seldom win or even cover at Lambeau (2-12 straight up, 4-10 against the spread in the last 14), and lately, never win on the road (nine straight losses, 2-7 against the spread, outscored 254 to 124).


SUNDAY

Miami
34 (+2 1/2), New Orleans 27 - London is still natural grass and outdoors, and the Saints "improved" to 5-8 straight up on both since 2015 with their win at Carolina last week. No interest in them to make it back-to-back wins in such games.

N.Y. JETS 17 (+3 1/2), Jacksonville 13 - The Jets can be taken off the "Do Not Pick" list after last week's thumping upset of Miami - and since 2013 the three Florida teams are a combined 11-43 straight up and 20-32-2 against the spread on artificial turf. And this is the first time that the Jaguars have been road favorites since November 13, 2011.

N.Y. Giants 23 (+4 1/2), TAMPA BAY 20 - The reason why the Eagles are 2-1 and in first place (on tie-breakers) in the NFC East while the Giants are 0-3 and last is because the Eagles proactively addressed their two biggest needs during the offseason (a deep threat at wide receiver and a power option at running back) while the Giants addressed neither of theirs (running back and offensive line). But the Giants have five straight wins over the Bucs, doubling them up 138-69 in the five victories, and Tampa Bay is struggling mightily with injuries on the defensive side.

NEW ENGLAND 37, Carolina 31 (+8 1/2) - The Patriots have gone from allowing the fewest points in the league last year to allowing the most points in the league so far this year - so I'm willing to take the Panthers with the points despite their 12-25-1 straight-up and 11-27 spread records on artificial turf since 2008 and current four-game losing and six-game non-covering streaks thereon, and especially since Carolina has covered in each of the last four meetings.

ATLANTA 28, Buffalo 14 (+8 1/2) - The Bills are pretty much in the same situation as the Panthers were in last week - leading the league in points allowed, but now the water gets deeper. They have also lost their last four to the Falcons (one cover) and are 9-17 against the line inside NFL domes dating all the way back to 1999.

Cincinnati 30, CLEVELAND 8 (+3 1/2) - The heady wine of road favoritism proved too much for the Browns (they had not been road favorites since October 19, 2014) last week - and they have been outscored by a gruesome 152-40 in their last five against their in-state rivals, naturally not winning or covering in any of them. With the Bengals offense having gotten their groove back under their new offensive coordinator, this one doesn't figure to be any different.

BALTIMORE 16 (+2), Pittsburgh 13 - I'm sure that John Harbaugh won't be stupid enough to start Ryan Mallett, and the Steelers have lost their last four in Baltimore. This is how most recent games in this series have gone: Close, low-scoring, and dull.

DALLAS 33, L.A. Rams 7 (+8 1/2) - The New Triplets - Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, ad Dez Bryant - righted the ship in a big way Monday night, and the Rams have dropped their last three in God's Country by a combined 100 to 21, and are also 6-14-3 against the line in this decade as a visitor on the carpet. Best bet.

HOUSTON 27 (+1), Tennessee 23 - Deshaun Watson has the look of a precocious keeper, and the Texans have beaten the Titans in eight of the last ten, going 7-2-1 against the spread - and one of the losses/non-covers was in a Week 17 "Siesta Bowl" last year. And for their part, Tennessee is 3-11 outright and 4-10 pointwise on rugs since 2013.

ARIZONA 34, San Francisco 13 (+7) - Can't see Brian Hoyer playing well two weeks in a row - and the 49ers have been outscored 170 to 63 in five games indoors since 2015 en route to records of 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in the five games.

L.A. CHARGERS 16, Philadelphia 10 (+1) - At first glance, it's hard to see why the 0-3 Chargers are favored - but if you dig a bit you discover that the Eagles haven't beaten them on the road since 1974. And Darren Sproles, who both tore his ACL and broke his arm last week, won't get to face his old team after all.

Oakland 31 (+2 1/2), DENVER 24 - After being owned by the Broncos for the longest time - seven straight losses both ways by a combined 260-109 - the Raiders have split their last four both ways versus Denver. And any time you're getting points on the team with the better quarterback, you're always in a good spot.

SEATTLE 20, Indianapolis 10 (+13 1/2) - True, it was Cleveland, and it was at home over a team that has now lost 15 in a row on the road. But the Colts are coming off a win - and how can you give nearly two touchdowns on a team that can't score?


MONDAY NIGHT

KANSAS CITY
34, Washington 14 (+7) - Fat Boy couldn't possibly own his former division more - 5-0 straight up, 4-0-1 against the spread. And the Chiefs almost couldn't possibly own Washington more: 8-1 straight up, 8-1 against the spread lifetime, including wins and covers in the last six.


BEST BETS: CINCINNATI, DALLAS, KANSAS CITY


At the time of this writing there was no line on the Detroit at Minnesota game due to questionable status of Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford; therefore, no selection could be made on this game.
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