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Old 12-14-2017, 11:24 AM   #1
Anthony
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Cool Anthony's Week 15 NFL Pointspread Picks

Last week: 4-12. Season totals: 100-102-4, Pct. .495. Best Bets: 24-17-1, Pct. .583.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

INDIANAPOLIS
16 (+1 1/2), Denver 13 - Last week's swan dive was due to my getting away from what I normally rely on - how teams do when they have to go from natural grass to artificial turf or the other way around, winning or losing streaks in the head-to-head series, and so on, thinking that playoff incentive would trump these factors. And while both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoff picture, the Broncos have lost and non-covered six in a row in Indianapolis and have gotten outscored 222-127 doing it, and Denver is 11-22 against the line since 2007 as a visitor on the carpet, and 4-8 against the line since 2005 inside NFL domes.


SATURDAY

DETROIT 24, Chicago 20 (+7) - The Bears snapped their eight-game losing streak on artificial turf last week, and ran Detroit to three points four weeks ago - and despite winning eight of their last nine over Chicago straight up, the Lions are just 3-4-2 against the spread therein. Take the points.

KANSAS CITY 27, L.A. Chargers 14 (+1) - Fat Boy righted the ship in a big way last week and has won seven in a row over the Chargers, including 24-10 at The Football Bandbox in Week 3, and Los Angeles-turned-San Diego-turned-Los Angeles has lost five in a row as a visitor in cold weather.


SUNDAY

Philadelphia 18, N.Y. GIANTS 13 (+8) - Who else noticed that Nick Foles led the Eagles to two field goals, but no touchdowns, after Carson Wentz went down with an ACL tear that will keep him out for the rest of the season and perhaps beyond? Philadelphia is also 1-6 both ways as a visitor on the carpet under Doug Pederson. Jake Elliott, who beat the Giants with walk-off a 61-yard field goal in the first meeting, will nail six of them in the rematch as the Eagles clinch a first-round bye - but the point-layers will wave "bye" to their money.

NEW ORLEANS 30, N.Y. Jets 0 (+15) - After Josh McCown broke his left hand, Bryce Petty came in and hung up a 39.6 passer rating - and that number is significant because it is the lowest possible rating a quarterback can have if he doesn't throw any interceptions, which Petty didn't. McCown of course is out for the season - and with all of the relevant teams in the NFC this side of Philadelphia now looking nervously over their shoulders at Dallas and Green Bay, the Saints cannot afford to fall into the sandwich trap - at Atlanta last week (10 days ago), hosting the Falcons next week.

WASHINGTON 21, Arizona 17 (+5 1/2) - When a pro golfer goes on a bogey binge on the back nine in the final round of a tournament, he is said to be "spending prize money." Well Kirk Cousins has really been spending free agent money the last two weeks - and while the Cardinals have lost seven straight in Washington, they are 3-3-1 against the spread in the seven defeats. Take the points.

JACKSONVILLE 41, Houston 3 (+12 1/2) - In the season opener, the Texans lost at home 29-7 to the Jags, with Deshaun Watson. Imagine how gruesome this one will be in Jacksonville, without Watson!

Green Bay 27 (+2), CAROLINA 20 - He's BAAACK! That would be Aaron Rodgers - and if the Packers win out, they need only minimal help to make the playoffs. The Panthers, who rank 28th in the league in passing offense, are in big trouble on the tie-breakers because of their 4-0 record outside the conference.

Baltimore 20, CLEVELAND 7 (+9) - The Gang That Can't Even Cover struck again last week, blowing the cover getting 3 1/2 points after taking the game into overtime. And Cleveland has lost 15 in a row within the AFC North, with a 2-13 record against the spread.

MINNESOTA 34, Cincinnati 13 (+10) - The Bengals have never won or covered in Minnesota - 0-5 both ways, outscored 145-58 - and the home team in the series has won and covered the last five by a combined 160-59. And the last thing the Vikings want to do is go onto the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field next Saturday night without the NFC North already locked up.

SEATTLE 31, L.A. Rams 17 (+1) - Another case of a team winning the first meeting over a division rival on the road and now getting to play them at home - and the Rams have been almost "Winless In Seattle" since 2005: 1-11 straight up, and also 3-9 against the spread. Bobby Wagner may join Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril on the sidelines here (although not for the season as with those three), but if that happens, Russell Wilson, who beat the likely top NFC playoff seed Eagles by two touchdowns two weeks ago to improve the Seahawks' December record at home since 2011 to 13-4 outright and 12-5 pointwise, will simply have to take matters into his own hands - and feet.

PITTSBURGH 30 (+2), New England 21 - Was Roger Goodell setting up the Patriots to lose "Super Bowl 51 1/2" by having had the Patriots play on Monday night the previous week? Yes, New England has won the last four meetings - but three of them were at The Big Razor Blade and in the one at Pittsburgh the Steelers didn't have Big Ben.

SAN FRANCISCO 24, Tennessee 21 (+1) - On October 3, 1999, the 49ers began life after Steve Young with a 24-22 win as 1 1/2-point favorite over Tennessee at home. Close enough - just like when Vito Corleone asked the landlord in The Godfather if he was Sicilian and he responded, "No, I'm Calabrese" - and while they may be known as the Titans, they're showing all the heart of a bunch of pygmies. Jimmy Garoppolo will be 5-0 as a starter if this pick does pan out. Who saw that coming?

Dallas 34, OAKLAND 20 (+1) - Derek Carr's injury in Week 4 seems to have thrown the Raiders off balance, even though Carr actually only missed the remainder of that game and the next one - and how they do next week against Seattle at home will likely decide whether or not the Cowboys, who are 16-5 straight up and 17-4 against the spread on grass since 2014, get in the playoffs.


MONDAY NIGHT

Atlanta
33, TAMPA BAY 17 (+5) - Also going from a Thursday night game to a Monday night game, the Falcons (8-4 both ways outdoors in 2016-17) will also elegantly sidestep the sandwich threat facing a team that is 0-8 straight up and 0-7-1 against the line vs. over-.500 teams, as opposed to 4-1 and 3-2 respectively vs. under-.500 teams.


BEST BETS: JACKSONVILLE, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE

Due to the unknown availability of Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, there is no line, and thus there can be no selection, on the Miami at Buffalo game.
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Last edited by Anthony; 12-14-2017 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 12-14-2017, 08:47 PM   #2
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Last Week: 2-1
Season: 12-14


Best Bets:
IND +1.5
NYJ +15
ATL @ TB under 48
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Originally Posted by buckeye
Sounds to me like they're still waiting for a good old-fashion ass kicking.
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