Go Back   Sports Central Message Boards > Collegiate Sports Discussion > College Football

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-11-2003, 01:53 PM   #1
I OWN THIS
The True Titan
 
I OWN THIS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Southaven, Mississippi
Posts: 2,634
I OWN THIS is on a distinguished road
Default Strength of Schedule?

When the BCS factors in strength of schedule, are they factoring team's strength of schedule up to date or from the start of the season? I am almost positive it is up to date strength of schedule, and if it is, the numbers just can't be right. Look at this comparison of strength of schedule numbers....

Oklahoma supposedly #7 in BCS Strength of Schedule have played BCS ranked teams....

#5 Texas and destroyed them
#25 Oklahoma State and destroyed them
with no remaining teams in BCS top 25 left on schedule unless they play one in Big 12 Championship game

Florida is #10 in BCS Strength of Schedule and have played BCS ranked teams...

#4 LSU and won
#7 Tennesse and lost
#9 Georgia and won
#12 Miami and lost
#13 FSU on upcoming schedule
#18 Ole Miss and lost

Florida has played 5 and soon to be 6 of the top 18 BCS ranked teams in comparison of OU only playing 2 top 25 BCS ranked teams, yet OU has the better strength of schedule ranking?

I am only guessing that Florida playing San Jose State and Florida A&M hurt them, but they still have played a much tougher schedule than OU.

Joey
__________________
Tennesse Titans Superbowl Champs 2003...Steve Mcnair for NFL MVP...Hopefully the Gators can compete in the SEC
I OWN THIS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2003, 03:11 PM   #2
MountaineerDave
Where am I?
 
MountaineerDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 5,661
MountaineerDave is on a distinguished road
Default

Well, Joey, one of the things that goes on in BCS SOS ranking the won-loss one game removed of teams played. That is, if the teams on your schedule have generally fared well...

OU wins the non-conference SOS by far, because one of Florida's non-conf opponents isn't Division 1-A.

Actually, Joey, if you look at last week's SOSs, you'll see that Florida had an SOS higher than OU's...
The loss by Miami (and by extension VT, BC, etc.), loss by FSU (and by extenstion Wake, Georgia Tech, etc.), the loss by Auburn, etc., etc. ad n+1 beat down on Florida's SOS, while little happened to OU's opponents to make such a significant change...

Dave
__________________
mountaineerdave on twitter
mountaineerdavem on AIM
MountaineerDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2003, 04:22 PM   #3
dhav8706
Grizzled Veteran
 
dhav8706's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 137
dhav8706 is on a distinguished road
Default

LSU's strength of schedule is lower than Miami of Ohio's. Both teams have 1 loss. LSU BCS rank: 4. Miami's BCS Rank: 16
dhav8706 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2003, 04:36 PM   #4
I OWN THIS
The True Titan
 
I OWN THIS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Southaven, Mississippi
Posts: 2,634
I OWN THIS is on a distinguished road
Default

Yeah, I figured that game vs. Florida A&M caused a nice slide in the strength of schedule for the Gators. But just looking at each team's schedule the Gator's schedule looks much tougher than OU's. I know it is ranked differently, but no way in convincing me that OU's opponents are better than the Gators. I mean I didn't even mention Arkanslaw on Florida's schedule, and Arkanslaw beat the best team on OU's schedule(Texas). Also to mention that Tennessee had a quality win over Miami this weekend and Ole Miss has definitely had to help Florida's strength of schedule. Florida didn't play Auburn, so I am not sure if it matters if they lose or not, or if because Florida played Ole Miss and Ole Miss beat Auburn that makes Florida SOS go down?

To be honest, I really don't think OU has had a tough schedule at all. I know they have been so convincing in their wins as of late vs. opponents they should beat, but I just don't see them having the 7th best strength of schedule in college football.

Joey
__________________
Tennesse Titans Superbowl Champs 2003...Steve Mcnair for NFL MVP...Hopefully the Gators can compete in the SEC
I OWN THIS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2003, 06:05 PM   #5
MountaineerDave
Where am I?
 
MountaineerDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 5,661
MountaineerDave is on a distinguished road
Default

Okay... so here's how it breaks down, sort of. I'm not going to go the whole length, because I do actually have some amount of work to do when I'm in the office. But, it's gonna work out something like this:

OU's opponents to date (as this is what SOS is based upon, not opponents yet to be played, as I falsely suggested earlier) have a cumulative winning percentage of .555

Florida's opponents to date have a winning percentage of .586. I have an addendum here: FAMU counts as 0-4 for these purposes. They're 6-4, but have no wins over division 1-a opponents, so those wins by FAMU get thrown in the Gulf. (With that, all of FAMU's opponents wins get tossed, while keeping their losses, sometime mildly significant numbers)

So, let's go opponent by opponent and just sort of guesstimate where THEIR opponents winning percentage is likely to be:
OU played:
North Texas, whose opp. winning percentage is probably below .400
Bama, whose opp winning percentage is probably on the order of OU's, .550
Fresno, whose opp win % is probably around .500
UCLA, whose opp win % is likely around .575 or so
Iowa State's opp win % is going to be around .600
Texas, probably closer to .550
Missouri is closer to .500
CU is closer to .575 than not
Okie State is closer to .550
TAMU is around .525 or the like

(These numbers are NOT SCIENTIFIC, nor even approaching correctitude. I'm guessing based on what I know off the top of my head. I'm likely way off on several, if not all of these)

Florida played:
SJSU opp win % around .450
Miami opp win % around .600
FAMU opp win % around .000
Tenn opp win % around .575
Kentucky win % around .550
Miss win % around .550
LSU win % around .500 (they also have a team whose win % nears zero, though I think WIU beat a division 1-a team, so they get a win's credit from beating WIU ... wa-hoo...)
Arkansas win % around .525
Georgia win % around .525
Vandy win % around .550

Florida's going to take a HUGE hit from having an opponent with a winning percentage of 0. HUGE. They lose a fair amount from Miami dropping from .888 to .777. They lose a little by from VT's going to .777 also.


I think it's interesting and not just a little in the face of conventional wisdom that only OU and Tennessee sit in front of Florida with higher SOS rankings. Supposedly, you're supposed to have tough SOSs to rank highly, but LSU looks well-positioned, thank you very much, with a just south of midway SOS rank.

Dave
__________________
mountaineerdave on twitter
mountaineerdavem on AIM
MountaineerDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2003, 09:59 AM   #6
I OWN THIS
The True Titan
 
I OWN THIS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Southaven, Mississippi
Posts: 2,634
I OWN THIS is on a distinguished road
Default

Thanks for the numbers Dave. Speaking of LSU, they did take a huge hit for having a just south of the midway SOS rank. LSU has better poll position than does Ohio State, yet because of computer rankings and SOS, LSU is 4 and a half BCS points behind Ohio State, which is quite a bit for 2 teams who both have 1 loss from major conferences. Ohio State obviously has a tougher schedule than does LSU, but I think the BCS works out in this case as Ohio State is ranked ahead of LSU.

Those numbers are in favor of OU over Florida, but I can look at both schedules and know which schedule is tougher. I think Florida's schedule is leaps and bounds tougher than OU's no matter what the SOS formula comes up with.

Joey
__________________
Tennesse Titans Superbowl Champs 2003...Steve Mcnair for NFL MVP...Hopefully the Gators can compete in the SEC
I OWN THIS is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:46 AM.