Monday, May 9, 2005
A Tighter Fit in Round Two of NBA Playoffs
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The grueling first round of the playoffs is finally over. It took two weeks and two game sevens, but we finally have the Elite Eight of the NBA. And now that the "weeds" have been pulled from the garden, there should be nothing but great basketball left throughout the postseason, right?
That seemed to be the case in 2004, when a bunch of one-sided series in round one turned the intensity up a notch in the conference semis. Each matchup went at least six games, with every series split 2-2 heading into game five. While most of the contests weren't close, the momentum shifts back and forth left the outcomes fairly unpredictable.
With two of the seven-game series getting underway Sunday, there are, as always, lots of questions that will be answered over the next 10-14 days.
Can the Wizards Become This Year's Heat?
In '04, a young and unheralded Miami squad finished strong to just make it into the postseason. After defeating a seasoned New Orleans Hornets team in the first round, the Heat challenged the top-seeded Pacers for the better part of six games. A year later, Miami has switched roles. The Heat are at the top of the Eastern Conference, hosting a Washington team that nobody expected to get this far into the season.
The Wizards have a potent attack on the perimeter with Gilbert Arenas (23.0 ppg), Larry Hughes (22.2 ppg), and Antawn Jamison (18.2 ppg). But an 0-4 regular season record vs. Miami, along with little force inside to deal with a rested Shaq, is too much to overcome. People of the capital, enjoy the first series win in 23 years ... it'll be the last one this year. Miami wins in five.
Does Seattle Have Enough Shots to Move on?
The Sonics got to this point of the season by way of their shooting touch. Seattle hit 47% of its field goals and out-rebounded Sacramento by almost seven boards a game to win round one. With that in tow, the time has come to face the defensive juggernaut known as San Antonio.
The Sonics aren't scared of the Spurs, winning their first two meetings and splitting the season series. However, for them to succeed now, Jerome James must continue to shock the basketball world. His stats against the Kings (17.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg) were a pleasant surprise, but that production against San Antone won't come as easily.
The other X-factor in the series is that Latin sensation, Manu Ginobili. Denver wasn't ousted because of Tim Duncan or Tony Parker. Ginobili led the team in scoring and provided their spark off the bench.
It was the Argentinean that drove through the Nuggets' D at will, breaking them down at every key moment from game two on. He's the man Seattle must control, and, unfortunately, the Sonics don't have an answer defensively. San Antonio takes it in six.
Will History Repeat Itself?
This question to the Pistons/Pacers series can be answered on a couple of different levels. After the "Malace at the Palace" (or whatever name you call it) in November, Detroit and Indiana still had to play each other three times. Through the suspensions, drama, and even a bomb threat, the team continued playing. On this level, history moves on.
Then, there is the level of intensity that these two teams have displayed over the past couple of years on the court. In the short-term, this matchup has become quite a rivalry lately. It started last season when the teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals.
In four of the six contests, the margin of victory was seven points or less. While the makeup of the teams is a little different since Nov. 19th, the Pistons and Pacers still managed to go 2-2 against each other, and the home team lost every game.
Don't expect the tenacity to go gently into that good night. However, with five players scoring in double figures against Philadelphia, the Pistons have too much balance to let this series go to seven. Just like last year, Detroit wins in six.
Can Dallas Run With the Suns?
I really shouldn't be asking this question. In the same vein of Washington trying to become this year's version of the '04 Heat, Phoenix is the 2005 model of Maverick teams for the past few years. It doesn't come as a surprise since NBA MVP Steve Nash is at the helm. The Suns upped their point average from 110.4 (regular season) to 113.8 ppg during their sweep of Memphis.
However, even without Nash running the point, the Mavericks still like to play up-and-down basketball. The problem for Phoenix is that the Mavs have more depth, defense (96.8 to 103.3 pts. allowed over the regular stanza), and playoff experience than the Western Conference's top seed. With all those factors playing against the Suns, this is the upset to pick. Dallas is victorious in seven games.
All told, it should be an interesting second round of the playoff season. With a difference in styles, two run-and-gunners, a defensive struggle, and a shot to prove someone's worth on the line, entertainment should be at a pretty high level. At least, I hope it is for as long as these series might take.