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Last Year

Following up stratospheric success is not simple scutwork. Just ask the Atlanta-based rap group D4L, who dropped off after their hit single "Laffy Taffy," or the Atlanta Falcons, who faltered in 2005 after appearing in the penultimate game of 2004. While the offense remained status quo, it was the defense that wilted as the season wore on, mostly because of injuries and shortages. The coming season poses several questions that will only be answered on the field, none more pressing than if Vick is capable of leading the Falcons to a Championship?

What We Learned From Last Year

A common myth about the 2005 Falcons was that Michael Vick regressed as a passer. If you examine his statistics from the previous two seasons, that is simply not the case.

2004: 15 GP, 56.4 completion %, 2,313 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 78.1 QB rating

2005: 15 GP, 55.3 completion %, 2,412 passing yards, 15 TD, 13 INT, 73.1 QB rating

Quite frankly, from a passing perspective, his performance last year did not deviate very far from his norm. Sure, his ability to run was severely limited by a knee injury after a Minnesota Vikings delivered a late hit in Week 4, but the meat of this issue here is his inability to pass the football.

Never mind his selection to the Pro Bowl, which was the subject of endless derision by those who know anything about the NFL, to this point, Vick has been a disappointment as a pocket-passer.

The facts are clear: he has completed less than 57% of his passes in each of his five seasons and in only one season has he has thrown significantly more touchdowns, than interceptions. Among the 26 quarterbacks who topped 2,000 passing yards last season, Vick had the fourth-worst completion percentage.

This begs the question: is Vick good enough to take a team to the Super Bowl?

The last quarterback to carry a team to the final game with a completion percentage below 57% was Steve McNair in 1999.

At first glance, taking the Falcons to the NFC Championship game seems like an admirable achievement for Vick, but keep in mind there were only three other teams in the conference with winning records that year.

While completion percentage may prove to be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, as long as the turnovers are limited, one disturbing note about Vick's porous statistics in this offense is that the Falcons' passing game is pretty much elementary. The routes are as basic as it gets, but he still has trouble with reads.

The excuse that Vick had little help around him began to dwindle last season, as the Falcons spent another high draft pick on a wide receiver, Roddy White. With Michael Jenkins, Roddy White, and a stellar season from Brian Finneran, Vick connected a little more with his receivers than in previous years.

While offensive line wizard Alex Gibbs has vastly improved the front five's performance in the running game, the pass protection has been another story. This was a real let down last year, especially how badly guard Kynan Forney and tackle Todd Weiner slumped down the stretch last season.

There is not much to say about the running game, outside the fact that it is one of the best in the business. Warrick Dunn, like wine, gets better with age and TJ Duckett brings the power. Duckett would probably have liked more than 121 carries, but the Falcons stuck with Dunn's hot hand.

With an offense that was in and out, the Falcons needed a reliable defense to remain competitive. An early season-ending injury to defensive back Kevin Mathis immediately tested the depth in the secondary, while further wounds to middle linebacker Ed Hartwell and defensive end Brady Smith would further thin out the roster.

The losses up front were insurmountable, as the Falcons were forced to plug in a rookie Chauncey Davis on the line. Blockers focused in on Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman, and were getting to the second level with ease by the time the season finished. Without Hartwell, the Falcons moved Keith Brooking into the middle, a position he is not well-suited to play and inserted undersized sophomore Demorrio Williams on the outside.

In the secondary, DeAngelo Hall had a breakout season, but consistently lacked an equal partner at the other starting cornerback position. Bryan Scott, who previously had a stellar at free safety, was moved over to the strong spot in 2005 and was not nearly as effective.

The Falcons have replenished an emaciated defense with several playmakers and should the offense find some consistency in the passing game, they will once again be poised to make a run for the playoffs.

This Year

Blackbirds singing in the dead of night, they will try to take the advice of The Beatles and Sarah McLaughlin, and try to fix their proverbial broken wings and learn to fly.

With the offseason improvements to the defense, they should be able to take flight somewhat — or at least glide out of the 22nd total defense ranking.

The acquisition of John Abraham was a shrewd one, as he adds an explosive element on the defensive line which was not present. Patrick Kerney is the little engine that can, but he does not have the same burst in his first step. With Rod Coleman in the middle — when he fully exerts himself, unlike last year — this front four is going to be a handful in pass protection. However, one concern is how this line will react to the run. Coleman is more adept at pressuring the quarterback than run awareness, Abraham is often overaggressive and can be neutralized by bigger tackles, while Kerney wears down if a team constantly runs at him.

They will need much support from the second level, whose function will bank on the return of Ed Hartwell. He is their most physical presence and is anxious to prove that he is worth the $8 million signing bonus he received last year. Brooking will move back to the outside while Michael Boley will likely round out the three starters.

Continuing the theme of strengthening the middle, the Falcons signed sure-tackler Lawyer Milloy to fortify the 26th-ranked run defense. Keion Carpenter and Bryan Scott played like they had butter on their gloves last year as many tackles slipped their grasp. Milloy is still a premium tackler, but his range in coverage shortens by the season. The team acquired Chris Crocker from the Cleveland Browns, who will start at free safety, but he is a very average player. A better move would have been to shift Scott back to free safety.

The secondary got the biggest boost in the draft with Jimmy Williams, who could very well be a mirror image of DeAngelo Hall. The Virginia Tech standout was a steal in the second round of the draft and is a confident shutdown corner. With Jason Webster manning the nickel role once Williams gets into starting shape, this grouping of defensive backs will be quite strong.

On offense, the heavy burden falls on the shoulders of Michael Vick, once again. Defensive coordinators have spent the past couple of seasons tailoring game plans to curtail his effectiveness, and it has worked. The tight man coverage forces him to fit the ball in small windows, but he has not been able to do so.

There is hope, though, for a number of reasons. For starters, the Falcons hired a new tutor for Vick in quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave. He learned behind Joe Montana and Steve Young as a player, and coached Steve Beuerlein and Mark Brunell to successful seasons.

Secondly, Roddy White has been working out with Vick over the summer and is poised for a breakout season. He came on strong at the end of last season with 162 yards and two touchdowns in the last four games.

During Vick's tenure as the Falcons' quarterback, he has never had a dominant go-to wideout. Tight end Alge Crumpler has been his main man, but an influential receiver could possibly be the missing key to Vick's success. Think about where Donovan McNabb was as a passer prior to the arrival of Terrell Owens.

One of White's strengths is his ability to adjust to the football. That is a skill that will give Vick an error buffer that he has never had. With more than one reliable target, Vick may finally learn to trust his receivers and trust his arm.

The offensive line took a hit when tackle Kevin Shaffer departed for the Cleveland Browns in free agency, but even with Wayne Gandy in his spot, expect the typical solid run protection and average pass protection.

Speaking of status quo, the running game is expected to continue its dominance and considering the Falcons do have the constituents of a Super Bowl contender, they should quell TJ Duckett-to-Pittsburgh trade rumors and keep all their pieces intact. Rookie Jerious Norwood can not fill his role as a bruiser.

Whether the Blackbirds learn to fly or not depends on the Vick chess game: coordinators have figured him out and it is time for him to mature, to grow and to add another wrinkle to his game. If he can, the Falcons and their improved defense are poised for a playoff run. If the same one-trick pony returns, Vick must reduce turnovers to a minimum should they hope to accomplish a winning season.

Over/Under: 8

The NFC is no longer significantly weaker than the AFC and entails several borderline contenders, one of which will likely emerge. I do not believe that team will be the Falcons, especially since their three division mates have all replenished their rosters and they have to square off with the NFC East and AFC North. They may be a better team, but their record may not eventually dictate that. They play: @CAR, TB, @NO, ARZ, NYG, PIT, @CIN, @DET, CLE, @BAL, NO, @WAS, @TB, DAL, CAR, and @PHI.

Fantasy Sleeper

Although it is a bit of stretch to expect top flight receiving numbers from Roddy White, he's worth taking a close look at in the later rounds of the draft. He averaged 15.4 yards per catch last season and has worked hard with Michael Vick to establish a better connection. Michael Jenkins will likely be drafted ahead of him in most pools, but White has more value going forward. One caveat: this is a run-first offense.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at davegolokhov@sports-central.org.