Thursday, September 14, 2006
Predictions, Pictures, and Poker
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I just returned from a trip to Atlantic City, and it was a vacation I would describe as "Griswoldian." I lost every cent I had earmarked for poker (mostly because of two hands where I was out-kicked by one, and two hands when someone went runner-runner on me with either all of his or all of my chips already in the middle on the flop), the comedian my wife and I got tickets for cancelled his show, we had a (non-poker-related) financial crisis, and we ended up leaving a day early.
The advantage to leaving the day we did is I figured it would afford me the opportunity to watch the second half of the Akron/North Carolina State game (longtime readers know I'm an Akron native and big fan of the Zips). Continuing with the Griswold theme, we developed car problems and I didn't get home until long after the game was over. Too bad, because the game proved to be perhaps the most important win in Akron football history, done in perhaps the most exciting fashion imaginable (a field-goal-to-tie-eschewing one-yard touchdown run on the last play of the game).
I rejoiced along with the rest of Zips Nation (you can find me there under the picture of Mr. Sandman).
But apparently, we can't just enjoy this program-bolstering victory in peace. There has to be some controversy. Namely, a picture has emerged that appears to show Akron's Dennis Kennedy's elbow hitting the turf before he crossed the plane on the winning touchdown, taken by ... well, by some guy in the stands.
Lots of thoughts on this. First, still photographs, particularly those taken by amateurs, are not reliable and it's impossible to justify their usage in deciding games. They can be photoshopped or altered (I am not suggesting in any way that this one is, don't get me wrong), and even honestly taken, developed, and untouched photographs can deceive. That's why reviews have to come from motion-picture cameras, and decided by an agreed-upon source (the booth).
That said, why on Earth, as has been widely reported, did ESPNU not have a sideline cam? I realize ESPN crew doesn't have the resources of Monday Night Football, but man, goal line cams have to be a super-high priority for any multiple-camera television game. I can't understand why it didn't make the cut here. I've watched plenty of games on ESPNU, and they have never seemed to have appreciably fewer cameras than any other broadcast.
Finally, even if the photo does indeed show what it purports to show, and Kennedy did not score ... them there is the breaks. Or to put it more kindly: over the course of years and decades, you get game-changing bad calls going your way, and you get game-changing bad calls going against you. It's just the way it is.
To any NCSU fan reading this, you have tons more resources and prestige than we most likely ever will. If there's one more bowl-eligible football team than there are bowl slots, North Carolina State will never have to worry about being the lone team passed over, but that's exactly what happened to Akron two years ago. So ... you know. Blessings, perspective, and all that. Let us have this, let us enjoy it.
Finally, as a response to NSCU coach's less-than-honorable reaction (in various ways) to this loss, I offer this pot shot: I think we can add another question to the canon of famed philosophical ponderances, like the one about a tree falling in the forest, one-hand clapping, and the chicken and the egg. Perhaps even harder than those to answer.
Who is the best college football team in North Carolina?
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On to this week's picks. Home team in caps, my pick listed first:
Baylor (+13) over WASHINGTON STATE
I picked Baylor last time as well, against TCU in Week 1. They almost made me look good, but gave up 10 unanswered in the fourth quarter to lose by 10, and the spread was 7.5 (I went 2-3 with my picks in Week 1, by the way).
Still, Baylor hung with TCU, and the spread was pretty close to being correct. If they were playing in Fort Worth, I would expect the spread would've been about 15 or 16 ... which is nearly what it is for this game. Problem is, TCU is way better than Washington State. I'm going with Baylor yet again.
PITT (-2.5) over Michigan State
On the other hand, Washington State killed an Idaho team that Michigan State struggled with. Pitt has looked good thus far, and is at home.
Arizona State (-10) over COLORADO
This sort of feels like a trap game, a line too good to be true. But seriously, after getting decisively beaten by Montana State (who then lost to Division 2 Chadron State), and then losing to a shaky-looking Colorado State team, there's no way in hell the Buffs keep it close, even at home, with a team with some actual BCS talent, is there? Is there?
USC (-18.5) over Nebraska
I think USC established in the Arkansas game — on the road, mind you — that they are still one of college football's elites. Nebraska is not "back" and probably not too much better than Arkansas. To whatever degree they are better than Arkansas is probably mitigated by USC being at home. The Trojans are an easy pick.
Buffalo (+22.5) over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Buffalo is coming off a strong effort, an overtime loss to MAC heavy Bowling Green. Northern Illinois laid a clunker at home against Ohio last week. It is certainly possible that Northern Illinois will come out angry and kill a Buffalo team let down by coming up just short against BG. Plus, the Bulls did need overtime to beat Temple in Week 1 after ending regulation tied with them at three (I dub it "The Worst Game in the History of College Football"). But the 22 1/2 points are too irresistible. I would go with the other four games first, though.
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Finally, a touch of irony considering my disastrous run in Atlantic City. The day after I returned, I scored my biggest online poker accomplishment to date. I finished fourth, in a field of 100, in a tournament which awarded a ticket to a bigger tournament to the top five. Specifically, this tournament I won entry into (which costs $200 to buy into directly) will pay its winner a $10,000 dollar buy-in to the Aussie Millions Poker Championships at the Crown Casino in Melbourne, Australia, plus hotel room and spending cash.
If you have nothing to do Saturday night at 8 PM (and surely you don't), and want to wish me well or make fun of my poker suckitude, log onto ParadisePoker.com, find the tournament, look for "mreleganza" (that's me!), and watch my table. This will send good karma my way.