Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Why the Colts Will Not Repeat
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Last year around this time, I wrote an article entitled Why the Steelers Will Not Repeat.
It didn't take a crystal ball to see that Ben Roethlisberger would still be feeling the effects from his motorcycle accident well into the winter and that the losses of Antwaan Randle El and Jerome Bettis would be detrimental to the 2005 champions.
That being said, I do believe it's time for another edition of "Why They Will Not Repeat." Up now: the Indianapolis Colts.
Reason No. 3: They're running out of running backs and fast.
The reason the Colts' running game is at all successful is because they run a spread passing offense that keeps defenses, above all else, tired.
Last year, they only had three backs that recorded any rushes. And only two that rushed more than five times all season. Yes, two: Dominic Rhodes (187-641-5) and Joseph Addai (226-1081-7). These two backs split the load in carries almost in half, keeping constant fresh legs on the field. It is essential that the Colts have two running backs that can split the load of carries because they rely on spreading the defense from sideline to sideline before the snap and then running draws, counters, and cutbacks; maneuvers that wear on a back's legs much more than simple runs between the center and guard.
With the loss of Dominic Rhodes, the team only has one running back that has rushed in an NFL game. Not to say that Joseph Addai isn't a powerful running back, but he is certainly not an every-downs player. Not in this offensive scheme. If you want to wear down a defense and get them huffing and puffing, you're going to be doing a little huffing and puffing yourself. That's why the Colts need an experienced back to complement Addai to be successful.
Reason No. 2: The AFC South has improved. Significantly.
Let's do this one-by-one, shall we?
Houston — The Matt Schaub signing alone is enough to garner some excitement in Houston. The media didn't take too kindly to the Texans not addressing their offensive line concerns in the draft, but the Jordan Black signing is what this team has needed for a long time — a dependable offensive lineman in the prime of his career. For the three years he's been a starter, he's started every game. Any member of an offensive line that can push their running backs for more than 2,000 yards and give both of their quarterbacks over a 60% completion percentage can't be bad.
Jacksonville — They've made an already championship defense even better through the drafting of Reggie Nelson from Florida. Their offense was close last season, but suffered from injuries to the quarterback and inconsistent play by the wide receivers. That was also addressed in the draft with the speed of UCF's Mike Walker. The running game was the best in the league (with the exception of the Atlanta's scrambling Michael Vick) with one back rushing for more than 1,100 yards and another (a rookie) scoring a dozen touchdowns.
Tennessee — Vince Young is not the best quarterback in the league. In fact, statistically, he's near the bottom. But he was thrown to the lions very early on in his rookie season. No quarterback without the last name of "Marino" is going to be great their rookie season. But he grew, ended the season on a high in winning six of his last seven, and won Rookie of the Year honors. The departures of Travis Henry and Drew Bennett hobble this team, but Young is a wildcard and can never be counted out of a game. His ability to win (and lose) those he shouldn't makes each game exciting.
Reason No. 1: The big heads of the Colts' defense will pop.
The only reason the Colts won in the playoffs is because their soft defense stepped up their game and started playing like an actual NFL defense.
Peyton Manning had 7 interceptions to his 3 touchdowns (making for a 70.7 QB rating). Dominic Rhodes only had one rushing touchdown all postseason. The receiver with the most receptions was a tight end. Their special teams even allowed a kickoff for a touchdown.
Their defense had 9 sacks, 7 interceptions, 11 passes deflected, and an interception returned for a touchdown. All in four of the most high-pressure games most of these players have been a part of.
If it wasn't for the defense playing with a reckless abandon, the Colts would have lost.
If it wasn't for Trent Green and the Chiefs literally handing them the game, Manning and his three interceptions that afternoon would have lost them the game.
If it wasn't for Steve McNair showing his age, Manning and his two interceptions that afternoon would have lost them the game.
If the Patriots had rushed a player more than eight times, it would have lost them the game.
If it wasn't for Rex "I Like Playing Horrible In Super Bowls" Grossman playing as badly as he did, it would have lost them the game.
During the regular season, the Colts defense allowed the 23rd-most points that year. Not a statistic you'd like your defensive coordinator reading in the Monday sports section. There is no pressure in the regular season for the defense. Even if they laid down and died, Peyton could still put up the points to win 12 or 13 times a season. The pressure was on them in the postseason and Tony Dungy used that to his advantage as he convinced his defense that now is when they needed them.
Now that the pressure of winning a Super Bowl is behind them, the defense will settle into its old ways and return to the conservative cover two that allows teams to rack up points.
If it wasn't for the defense playing with a reckless abandon, the Colts would have lost.
BUT THEY DIDN'T!
If it wasn't for Trent Green and the Chiefs literally handing them the game, Manning and his three interceptions that afternoon would have lost them the game.
BUT THEY DID!
If it wasn't for Steve McNair showing his age, Manning and his two interceptions that afternoon would have lost them the game.
BUT HE DID!
If the Patriots had rushed a player more than eight times, it would have lost them the game.
BUT THEY DIDN'T!
If it wasn't for Rex "I Like Playing Horrible In Super Bowls" Grossman playing as badly as he did, it would have lost them the game.
BUT HE DID!
Na,na,na,na,na