On paper, theirs are the two best pitching staffs in the American League through Sunday, and both hope to ride this strength all the way to October.
In one corner are the Oakland A's, topping everyone with a 3.11 team ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .233 BAA. They've also turned in 41 quality starts through their first 62 outings, a MLB high. In the other corner, the Boston Red Sox are right behind, second in team ERA, WHIP, and BAA. The Sox are a league best in strikeouts per walks and in strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Their bullpen has converted 87% of save opportunities, far outpacing Oakland's 61%.
So, what happens when paper meets turf?
For the time being, that question was answered last week in Oakland, where the two squared off in a four-game series trimmed in autumnesque intensity. The A's came away with three narrow wins of one, two, and one runs, respectively. But Boston's Curt Schilling turned in the gem of the week with his near-perfect one-hitter on Thursday afternoon as the Red Sox salvaged the finale, 1-0.
In nearly 74 innings of play, the two staffs allowed a total of 16 earned runs, equating to a 1.95 ERA. Compare that to this past Sunday's effort by Tom Glavine and assorted New York Mets mop-up men, who surrendered 15 earned runs in eight innings of work. A's pitchers allowed only 7 earned runs, 25 hits, and 14 walks, while Boston ceded 9 earned runs, 28 hits, and 12 walks. That works out to a little more than one base runner per inning, or a 1.07 WHIP.
If the old baseball adage holds, these two teams should be locking horns in the ALCS come October, right? Maybe not.
Oakland will first have to contend with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, whom they currently trail by five games. Not much of a deficit to overcome for Athletics teams of the past that historically dominated the post-All-Star Break American League. But those A's weren't chasing these Angels who are the AL's best-balanced club, ranking third in both hitting and pitching through Sunday's action.
And Boston has its perennial nemesis. The New York Yankees have the most loaded lineup in baseball, a better-than-average starting rotation, and are now beginning to stretch after a long winter's nap. In 12 days' time, they have whittled away five of Boston's 14½-game lead that once seemed insurmountable, notwithstanding the dubious track record of the frontrunners and the fact that we have yet to reach Father's Day.
There's one more thing going against both. The Athletics and Red Sox are arguably the biggest underachievers in Major League Baseball today.
Oakland is as always rich in young talent supplied by the quirky Moneyball principles of General Manager Billy Beane. But it's a talent that never seems to age. As Billy himself admits, his system doesn't work in the playoffs. That has proven an understatement as the A's have lost five of the six postseason series they've played during Beane's nine-year administration.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are rich in rich, bankrolling MLB's second-highest payroll in six of the past seven seasons. Yes, they do have one World Series ring to show for it and that is one more than the team with the highest payroll, but unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox have missed the postseason three times in that span.
Last year, the A's finally resuscitated themselves and escaped the ALDS for the first time under Beane. Their sweep of the Twins snapped a nine-game losing streak in playoff series clinchers dating back to 2000. The Red Sox didn't fare as well, turning a 4-game lead on July 4th into a 6½-game deficit by August 22nd. They went on to finish 12 behind the Yankees. Nonetheless, that 16-game U-turn has not affected the naiveté of Red Sox Nation, which once again flexes its collective muscles as if spring should never give way to summer.
With 100 games remaining on most schedules, there is little certainty in baseball at the moment, least of all whether good pitching will beat out good hitting over the homestretch. If it does, we may see a rematch of these same Athletics and Red Sox.
Of course, Boston has hedged their bet with the bats of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, but GM Theo Epstein has created a desolate region in his lineup as wide as the Sahara Desert with his acquisitions of Julio Lugo (.213), Coco Crisp (.224), and J.D. Drew (.244). Oakland, on the other hand, is a woeful producer at the plate from top to bottom, with a batting average ranking 12th among 14 AL teams. The A's have been held to three or fewer runs nearly as often as not, going 8-22 in those games. That they are even in striking distance is perhaps the greatest tribute to the staff that Billy built.
In the end, both these teams are going to find it an arduous grind to reach the playoffs. One has to wonder who has the tougher road ahead. Is it the Oakland Athletics at five back, or the Boston Red Sox at nine and a-half up?
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