Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Can LeBron Average a Triple-Double?
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Averaging a triple-double is like owning every single property in a game of Monopoly — it's not fair for the other players. And it means you're really, really, really good.
Okay, so the analogy isn't perfect. But it's fair to say averaging a triple-double in the NBA is godly. It's only been done once before — Oscar Robertson averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists in the 1961-62 season. In fact, most seasons, no one even get remotely close.
So when LeBron James was entering the NBA and analysts said he could average a triple-double, I thought they were crazy. Absolutely crazy. I thought it was just one of those things people said to emphasize how good a player really is — you know, like an exaggeration?
But how dare I question the great NBA analyst.
This season, at the age of 22, LeBron is averaging 31 points, 8, rebound and 8 assists a game. He's getting close.
Just to put this season into perspective, the closest Kobe Bryant got was 30, 7, and 6. The closest Tracy McGrady got was 26, 8, and 5. The closest Kevin Garnett got was 23, 14, and 6.
So will LeBron ever reach the coveted double digits in three statistical categories?
I say no. But only because the careers of the two players LeBron most resembles show a different trend.
Robertson and Magic Johnson were both big guards who filled up the stat box. Robertson achieved his triple-double season in his second season — he was very close in his first four seasons. After that, he began to score more and rack up more assists, but his rebounds went down.
Johnson averaged 18.6, 9.6, and 9.5 in his third season. He, too, began to rack up more assists while his rebounds dropped after that season.
LeBron is in his fifth season. He has a few more years under his belt at age 22 because he came straight out of high school. But history shows that players like LeBron get closer to triple-doubles while they are young. As they age, they become more of a playmaker.
But LeBron isn't the player closest to a triple-double this season. Quietly, Jason Kidd is averaging 11.4, 10.4, and 8.5. He's merely 1.5 rebounds away from a triple-double. And he's 34.
So does LeBron have the ability to average a triple-double? Yes.
But will he? It depends on what he wants to do — does he want to score more and go the Magic Johnson route, or stay in the paint and grab a few more rebounds?
For him to have this decision to make might be more impressive than actually averaging a triple-double.
yes