Tuesday, January 1, 2008
In the Box: NFL Week 17
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So there you have it, the 2007 regular season in the National Football League. Twelve teams get to go on to the final stage. Twenty sift through the excuses and what nows. Happy New Year's, everybody.
The Patriots are the favorites. We all know this. They've won all 16 since they kicked off for real in September, and have more pressure than any other team remaining. Making history is great. But going undefeated in the regular season only to lose in the playoffs would be the wrong kind of history.
A playoff loss would make the Pats the greatest team never to win the Super Bowl. Every time another team made it to 12-0, 13-0 or beyond, it would be "remember when New England went undefeated, only to choke when it really mattered." We'd see yet-to-exist highlights of Tom Brady and company with their heads down as the Titans/Chargers/Steelers/Jaguars/Colts/NFC champ celebrate one of the biggest playoff upsets of all-time. If New England fans think they got sick of Bill Buckner highlights, just wait. This could be worse.
With that in mind, the other 11 teams, in order of potential to create massive heart failure throughout New England and beyond (at least through O'Fallon, Missouri).
11. Tennessee — Give them credit. They shut down Jim Sorgi when they needed to. Winning at San Diego will be a different matter.
10. New York Giants — The great thing about the Pats/Giants game was that in the fourth quarter, I told the crowd of Pats haters around me that it was about time for Eli Manning to throw a horrible pick that would cost them the game. Two plays later, it happened. Also, the Giants' clock management down two scores with under four minutes left was horrible. If I was a Giants fans, I'd be shopping for a new TV right now, because I would have broken mine. Maybe they squeak by Tampa on Sunday, but I doubt it.
9. Washington — The Redskins are the worst story turned into the best story of the past month, but they have the toughest road to the title. I love the resurgence of Todd Collins, the re-emergence of Santana Moss, the return to greatness by Joe Gibbs (whose numerous coaching flubs nearly cost Washington its season), the toughness of Clinton Portis, and the incredible passion with which the Skins defense is playing. But asking a team to go to Seattle, Dallas, and Green Bay in three consecutive weeks and win all three is a tall, tall order.
8. Tampa Bay — Give the Bucs full respect for an under-the-radar great season. Their defense has gone from over-the-hill to the third stingiest in the league in points allowed. Barrett Ruud, with 114 tackles, three forced fumbles, and two interceptions, was a monster all year, while Derrick Brooks continued his Hall of Fame career with his 12th consecutive season with 100 or more tackles. I like them over the Giants this weekend, but I don't think that offense can keep up with Green Bay (their likely second-round opponent) or Dallas.
7. Seattle — On paper, they should be able to compete with anybody. Patrick Kerney, possibly the best free-agent signing of any team the past offseason, paired with 2006 free-agent Julian Peterson for 24 sacks. Only Dallas' DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis combined for more with 26.5. The offense can spread anybody out, and their offensive line is better than at any point in the post-Steve Hutchinson era. So why do I have my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick so low on the totem poll? Because the Seahawks are not to be trusted on the road.
6. Pittsburgh — Three factors: a first-time coach in the playoffs, the loss of Willie Parker, and, as we saw a few weeks ago, Jacksonville is a terrible matchup for the Steelers.
5. San Diego — It comes down to who has a better shot in the divisional round, the Chargers at Indianapolis or Jacksonville at New England. Having watched every Pats game this year, let me say I'm absolutely terrified of the Jags running game against a Patriots defense whose main weakness is stopping the ground game. The Chargers gave Peyton Manning fits back in Week 10, and it still took a missed Adam Vinatieri chip shot with 1:31 left to finish off the W. Anybody want to bet on Manning throwing another six picks and the most clutch kicker in NFL history missing a 29-yarder with the season on the line?
4. Jacksonville — Just because I'm worried about Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't mean I think David Garrard, with Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt his top two receivers, can keep up with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. There's a huge gap there, and it would take a monumental effort by the Jacksonville defense to keep the game close enough to where the Jags can use their advantage on the ground.
3. Green Bay — It's not that the Packers can't go down to Texas and beat the Cowboys. It's that I can't put Green Bay ahead of the Dallas after watching the Cowboys rip the Packers' D for over 400 yards and 37 points in Week 13.
2. Dallas – They've got everything you need. Tony Romo can make all the throws, plus make something out of nothing, a crucial asset in playoff football. Terrell Owens can beat any corner one-on-one, forcing the coverage to slant his way. Jason Witten forces the coverage to stay honest in the middle. Patrick Crayton is good enough to take advantage of the space created by T.O. and Witten. Marion Barber can make yards on any defense, and Julius Jones isn't nearly as inept as some believe (he's going to be a steal in free agency, but that's another column). And, most importantly, they have the offensive play calling in Jason Garrett to orchestrate the attack. If there's one thing I'm not sold on, it's the secondary. They get protected by a great pass rush, but, if the opposing protection holds, Terence Newman and Travis Henry can be beat.
1. Indianapolis — I will feel personally robbed if we don't get a Colts/Pats rematch in the AFC Championship game January 20. This is Yankees/Red Sox. This is Celtics/Lakers. This is North Carolina/Duke in college basketball, Joe Frazier/Muhammad Ali in boxing, Canadians/Maple Leafs in hockey, Celtic/Rangers in soccer, India/Pakistan in cricket, Spackler/gopher in Caddyshack. This game has to happen. It just has to.
Predictions (because I don't get paid without them):
Wild Cards — Seattle over Washington, Tampa Bay over New York, San Diego over Tennessee, Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Divisional — Seattle over Green Bay ("We're going to take the ball and we're going to score!"), Dallas over Tampa, Indianapolis over San Diego, New England over Jacksonville
Championship Games — Dallas over Seattle, New England over Indianapolis in an all-time classic
Super Bowl — New England over Dallas in the most hyped game in any sport ever
***
It would be pointless to go through each game of this past weekend, so just some notes:
I ended up one game off my Ravens doomsday prediction, thinking Pittsburgh would have something to play for in the finale. I get bonus points for predicting Brian Billick would get canned. Of all my predictions this year, I'm most proud of this one and calling the Colorado Rockies in the playoffs. (I'm least proud of picking the Packers to go 5-11 and the Texas Rangers in the playoffs.)
Whoever replaces Billick in Baltimore should hand Troy Smith the starting job and build from there.
Rex Ryan should replace Billick in Baltimore.
With the seventh pick in the NFL draft, the New England Patriots select...
The Rams should fire Scott Linehan, but they won't because they have the most dysfunctional front office in the league and they refuse to make a move until at least a year after it became painfully obvious to everybody but them.
If the Rams don't draft Jake Long (OT, Michigan) at No. 2, they should be immediately contracted.
Why did Marv Levy have to step down? The Bills have had two great drafts under his leadership. It's not his fault they all got hurt.
The Dolphins made a great hire with Bill Parcells, and he was spot on with firing Randy Mueller. I'd hold on to Cam Cameron, though. I'd like to see how having Parcells to tutor him would help Cameron adjust to being a head coach. If Cameron goes, I'd like to see Rob Ryan (Oakland defensive coordinator) get a chance. He's from that Parcells-Belichick tree, so it could be a good fit.
The Jets have to fire Brian Schottenheimer. It's that simple.
Illinois LB J. Leman is going to help somebody's special teams next year. I think he can have a Larry Izzo-type career.
Five candidates to have big bounce-backs next year: Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Marvin Harrison, Marc Bulger, Javon Walker.
Five candidate to fall off next year: Bobby Engram (94 catches, 1147 yards, 6 TD), Derrick Mason (103 catches, 1087 yards, 5 TD), Shaun McDonald (79 catches, 943 yards, 6 TD, a Mike Martz guy without Mike Martz), Kurt Warner (3419 yards passing, 27 TD, 17 INT, probably loses his job back to Matt Leinart), Brett Favre (4155 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT, the thing about miracle seasons is they usually don't happen twice in a row).
One guy who almost made the fall-off list: Jamal Lewis. He had a great year with 1304 yards and 9 TD, but he's playing for a big deal. If Cleveland gives it to him, does he come back with the same intensity as he did after being cast off by Baltimore last year?
You think Brandon Marshall is going to put up 102 catches, 1325 yards, and 7 TD again? You think Travis Henry is going to bounce back? Betting on what will happen in Denver is like betting on which Spears sister is going to get pregnant next. Will it be Britney with three or Jamie Lynn with two by her 18th birthday? Good freaking luck.
Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.