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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Four College Hoops Guarantees

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By John Hocter

With the dramatic close of yet another terrific men's college basketball season, the focus instantly turns to next year and prognostication about players, teams, and coaches. Predictions are easy to make and even easier to come by. Guarantees, on the other hand, are of a more serious nature, and tend to have significantly more on the line than your normal, everyday shot-in-the-dark. With this in mind, let's take a look at four sure-fire, can't-miss, absolutely idiot-proof guarantees for next year's college hoops campaign.

1. Kansas will not repeat as national champions.

Bill Self is staying, but that's about it. The Jayhawks lose three seniors in Darnell Jackson, Russell Robinson, and Sasha Kaun, not to mention the probability of Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur forgoing their senior seasons to cash in at the draft. Mario Chalmers could also ride the momentum from his miracle three-pointer straight out of Lawrence all the way to the NBA this offseason. That leaves a pretty bare cupboard for a very satisfied Coach Self, who not only achieved his dream of a national championship, but also used Oklahoma State and T. Boone Pickens to secure a lucrative contract extension from Kansas. The real question is if Self is still hungry enough to motivate a young, inexperienced team with a bright-red bulls-eye on the back of their jerseys.

2. Moving the three-point line back 12 inches will have a significant impact on the game.

Sure, shooting percentages from beyond the arc will drop slightly, but the biggest impact of the rule change could happen at the basket. With defenses forced to extend their efforts further from the hoop, guards and wingmen may find wide-open-spaces when slashing to the rim. Big men may benefit too, with teams less likely to double the post with more ground to make up to defend the three. Look for an increase in the frequency and use of various zone-defenses from traditional "man-to-man" teams.

3. Bob Knight will not return to coaching.

This is the easiest guarantee of all. Take one look at "The General" pouting and preening with the other ex-coaches on ESPN, and you'll see a man fulfilled by the one thing he's always craved: attention. That, and a heavy helping of coddling from his co-workers and employers. Digger and Dicky V. address him as "coach," while Knight sits smugly in his out-of-place sweater among the suits. Why would he return to the coaching world, with all its stress and accountability (after leaving his players high and dry at Texas Tech), when he can enjoy the air-conditioning and wind-bagging of a career he once scorned, as a member of the media?

4. Tyler Hansbrough will repeat as Naismith Player of the Year.

That is, if he returns for his senior season. "Psycho T" has led the Tar Heels in scoring and rebounding in each of his first three seasons, including averaging a double-double this past year (22.6 points, 10.6 boards per game.) If he puts up numbers like that in his senior campaign, he'll go down as one of the greatest ever to put on the Carolina blue. And if that's not enough to convince Hansbrough to come back, he also has everyone doubting his NBA potential and an 18-point loss to Kansas in the Final Four to use for motivation. Add that to his normal non-stop motor, and the result could be scary — literally.

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