Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Why the Jets Will Improve (Not Favre)
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All the incessant NFL preview talk of who will be good and who won't in the dreary (although less so in a Summer Olympic year) American sports month of August, along with preseason games that only quasi-matter for a quarter and a half, is enough for even the non-football fan to want real games to start being played immediately.
Or maybe this particular August, the incessant preview talk will come as a welcome respite for some after being inundated with approximately 245,694 straight hours of Brett Favre on ESPN over a six-week period.
Most of the preview talk you will hear or read will offer breakdowns based on position groups, new acquisitions, and intangibles. But, for the biggest changes in performance from last year to this, maybe we should look at the standings. Not the 2007 standings, though. The 2006 standings.
My personal cultivation of what I like to call "The Every Other Year Theory" originally started out with just one team around the 2004 season, with that team being the Jets. Three full seasons later, that theory has held true.
When the NFL realigned to eight divisions in 2002, one result was that less games were to be played solely based on how a team had done the year before. But for the Jets, 2002 marked the beginning of an era of consistent inconsistency. Let's look at the results:
2002: 9-7 (won AFC East, beat Colts 41-0 in playoffs)
2003: 6-10
2004: 10-6 (wild card, but were a kick away from the AFC Championship Game)
2005: 4-12
2006: 10-6 (wild card)
2007: 4-12
The main case as to why the Jets will be better will begin and end for many with No. 4. At this point, however, I can't see Favre's quasi-career year being repeated with the Jets. For one, the defenses are tougher in the AFC, and the 38-year-old gunslinger only will have had the three weeks of preseason games and four weeks of camp/practices to learn coach Eric Mangini's complicated offense.
In other words, the difference between Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, and Brett Favre may well be negligible.
However, it could well be another veteran on the wrong end of 35 that helps the Jets the most.
Over the past five seasons, Tony Richardson has blocked for running backs that have ran for 1,420, 892 (but two others with 500+), 1,750, 1,216, and 1,341 yards (plus another 800+ yard runner).
It's no secret that Thomas Jones had a disappointing, if not dreadful 2007 season. The former Bear nearly averaged carrying the ball 20 times a game, but only had 1,100 yards or about 70 a game to show for it. Richardson will almost certainly help those numbers.
Perennial Pro Bowler Alan Faneca and former Patriot Super Bowl champion Damien Woody also join an offensive line that should pave more holes for Jones.
The Jets' defense in 2006 was perhaps the most significant factor in its 10-6 season that year. Jonathan Vilma is gone from that team, but the Jets should have a decent linebacking corps, on the outside at least, with former Ohio State man-child rookie Vernon Gholston and Calvin Pace, who had a breakout year with the Cardinals last year. Former Carolina All-Pro nose tackle Kris Jenkins is another addition to the Jets' defense.
It's highly unlikely that the Jets will end up losing a first-round pick as part of the Favre deal. But, if recent history is any guide, and the Jets' other additions play their role, New York may happily part with a second-rounder next April.