With the NFL draft fast approaching, the second and final installment of my NFL mock draft features my "official" submittal into the annals of history those picks that I feel confident enough in that I am willing to risk my very reputation on their accuracy. As some of you may have read in version one of my mock draft, this year I openly challenged the public and, in particular, one of my harshest critics over the past few years, fellow draftnik and sports writing pundit Seth Doria.
Having had my challenge accepted, I am going on record in claiming to have one of the more accurate mock drafts out there. As always, my mocks include any potential trades that may occur along with the drafting team, player, and an explanation for each pick in the first round. As an added bonus, I've listed a half dozen or so players that are either shooting up the draft boards or dropping down them like stones. The scoring in this challenge will be straight-forward: player/team/draft position all correct = 3 points; team/player = 1 point; player/draft position = 0.5 points; highest point total wins.
Many things have changed since my original mock posting in March. As a result, my mock has changed quite significantly. Even with these changes, I'm still liking my chances at reinstating my good name as a draft prognosticator. Once the draft concludes, I will summarize how I did in comparison to Mr. Doria (along with any other brave soul willing to put his or her thoughts and reputation on the line), good or bad. As promised by both parties, the winners shall be adequately glorified and the losers will be appropriately ridiculed.
So here are my picks for the 2009 NFL draft:
1. Detroit Lions
Over the past several weeks, Baylor's stand-out offensive tackle (Jason Smith) has picked up some steam as a potential target for the rebuilding Lions. I just can't buy into that as a viable option for a team that had many significant weaknesses, but were adequate along the offensive line. Detroit reportedly dangled their No. 20 overall along with a nice package of additional picks in '09 and '10 for a shot at Jay Cutler, but when Denver insisted on the top overall selection being included, the Lions balked. What this should tell you is that it is very clear Detroit is on the hunt for a franchise QB. Now that the ex-Bronco has landed in a division rival's backyard, look for Detroit to aim at finding their signal caller of the future via the draft.
PICK — QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
2. St. Louis Rams
A team that openly pines for a trade down is never a good trading partner when it comes to draft-day deals. Typically, teams go in with a low-ball offer, curious to see just how desperate that party is in trading out of a top-five spot, and a deal never gets consummated. This draft will prove no different for the anxious-to-trade Rams, especially considering the situation with the next three teams to pick after St. Louis (KC with the savvy Scott Pioli running things, Seattle and Cleveland both looking to accumulate some extra draft picks). With no trade partners and an enormous hole in the spot that used to be occupied by new Bear Orlando Pace, the only reasonable action for St. Louis is to select the best available offensive tackle.
PICK — OT Jason Smith, Baylor
3. Kansas City Chiefs
My earlier mock had KC and new GM Scott Pioli trading out of this spot, and I still see that as a possibility. However, there have been a few recent developments that, for me, portend what is to come. First, KC has spent a surprising amount of effort scouring the free agent market in search of some depth. While they haven't made an inordinate amount of signings, they did recently ink veteran Zach Thomas and word is they are looking hard at Jason Taylor, should he have an interest. This indicates that they are completely uninterested in signing the player most have them leaning towards, LB Aaron Curry. Second, there has been little movement in terms of the Chiefs combing those same free agency lists for help at receiver.
With Matt Cassel now on board, you would have to think that KC wants to install some weapons, particularly at a position that has been somewhat of an Achilles heel of late. This lack of action, coupled with the rumors that WR Michael Crabtree's interviews with pro teams have gone remarkably well over the past few weeks is, to me, a clear indicator that Pioli (long known as a front office man who admirers high-character guys) is eying the standout Big 12 playmaker. While OT Eugene Monroe is a realistic possibility here, as well, I feel that Curry can be ruled and see this as the likely landing spot for Crabtree.
PICK — WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
4. Seattle Seahawks
Trades in the top 10 picks of the draft are always sort of questionable, particularly in mock drafts. On paper, they make all the sense in the world, but in reality, teams typically ask for too much in return. This year, though, with Seattle up this high, I see much more likely trade scenarios than in most seasons, which would have a team like Jacksonville or perhaps even Philadelphia moving up to this spot — that is until they hear KC's announced draftee. In all likelihood, even if Crabtree were still on the board, with Aaron Curry remaining on the board here there will be far too inviting an option for Seattle to ignore, and they will ultimately make the pick that make the most sense.
PICK — LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
5. Cleveland Browns
This pick here may well be my undoing in consideration of an accurate first round of prognostication, but my common sense just cannot overcome my instincts. Cleveland has made it no secret that they are "unsettled" at quarterback. Neither Brady Quinn nor Derrick Anderson appears to have endeared themselves to new head coach Eric Mangini, which rarely bodes well for any incumbent set of quarterbacks. My only conclusion here is that "Man-genius" doesn't see either as being the answer for the Browns. While the team admittedly has several holes, I just can't shake the feeling that Mangini and Co. has their sights set on a rookie signal caller fitting the mold of an intelligent, strong-armed, mistake-proof offensive general. Expect this move to be preceded by some chatter (if not a done deal) involving Quinn and a destination such as Tampa or, more likely, Denver.
PICK — QB Mark Sanchez, USC
6. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals need an offensive tackle, and will be tickled to see Monroe slide this far. While I believe secretly the Bengals would have loved to see Crabtree fall to them (and, honestly, if KC does draft Monroe there is the strong likelihood that Crabtree would be on the board in this slot, in which case Cincy would snatch him up and put their efforts to trade Chad Ocho Cinco into overdrive), getting their franchise left tackle into the mix will be a huge step in righting the ship. He's a nice, safe pick for a team needing some good press and some smart investments.
PICK — OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
7. Oakland Raiders
It's too bad that there is nobody around to save Al Davis from himself. Oakland is in a prime spot to trade down, pick up some extra picks and still be in position to fill one of their many needs. Alas, there will be a player on the board that Davis covets and, as such, overvalues, so you can bet the house that Al will overrule any sane group of individuals in the Raiders war room come draft day pleading with the aging owner to handle this draft responsibly. While grabbing a speedy, versatile wide receiver certainly fills a need for the Raiders, this will be a wasted opportunity that Oakland could have used to position itself to get better quicker.
PICK — WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville may be tempted by the Bills to move out of this spot, and frankly making such a move wouldn't be all too risky with the volume of players at positions of need still likely to be on the board at Buffalo's 11th slot. But with the Jags really needing some help on their defensive front, moving out of this spot with the guy that has all the makings of a perfect fit for the team doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Expect the Jaguars to think long and hard about moving out, but ultimately staying put and getting their guy.
PICK — DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
9. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is in the frustrating position of being one or two players from serious contender consideration. It isn't likely they will fill those spots through this year's draft, but they should still fare very well in finding themselves a real value pick at a position of need. Look for the Pack to grab the pass-rusher they need to help solidify their new 3-4 defensive look.
PICK — DE/OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State
10. San Francisco 49ers
Most experts have San Francisco taking either a pass-rushing defensive end here or an offensive lineman. However with both Cleveland and Oakland going off the board in their first round selections, a very good defensive tackle may well fall into the laps of the unsuspecting San Francisco brain trust. If so, you can bet that they won't hesitate in getting this card up to the podium.
PICK — DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
11. Buffalo Bills
I fully expect Buffalo to part ways with veteran LT Jason Peters prior to or on draft day. Philly is the most likely landing spot for Peters, but this move would require that Michael Oher, a nice all-around option at offensive tackle, still be in play as he is the player Buffalo covets. Expect the Bills to pick up Philly's round two and round for picks in exchange for Peters.
PICK — OT Michael Oher, Mississippi
12. Denver Broncos
New Bronco boss Josh McDaniels surely hasn't disappointed in his first few months on the job. He has brought drama, uncertainty, and unrest to a team that has traditionally been one of the more stable franchises around. Bill Belichik must be glowing with pride. I'm with most of the draft-following public in assuming that McDaniels would love to get his hands on Sanchez as his QB of the future, but Cleveland will have thrown a monkey-wrench into that deal, and quite likely will have done so purposely to better position themselves to make a deal shipping Brady Quinn out of town. I expect Quinn to be Denver's QB in 2009 and as such anticipate Denver focusing their first of two first round selections on their needs at defensive end.
PICK — DE Everette Brown, Florida State
13. Washington Redskins
Washington will be looking to find a pass rushing end to replace Jason Taylor. FSU's Brown would have been the perfect candidate, but with him off the board, the field is really narrowed to one of two selections, Georgia Tech's Michael Johnson and LSU's Tyson Jackson. Both are excellent options, but look for the Skins to take the more proven ex-Tiger.
PICK — DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
14. New Orleans Saints
I stand by my supposition that the Saints are most certainly going to pick a defensive back here. Not much more insight needs to be shared.
PICK — CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
15. Houston Texans
Being a Houstonian, I've heard all sorts of interesting scenarios on local talk radio. Many seem quite convinced that the team "has to" pick a linebacker or cornerback with this pick. While that may be the plan going in, I feel more confident in the team moving back a few spots in round one and seeing what hand they are dealt. However, having said that, if OT Andre Smith is still on the board here, I cannot imagine a scenario that does not end with the Texans calling his name as their pick.
PICK — OT Andre Smith, Alabama
16. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are a team that doesn't need a whole lot, so a pick this early in the first round remains a luxury. The most pressing need for San Diego is seen at defensive end, and with a few options on the board, look for SD to go after the one that fits their defensive style of play the best.
PICK — DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
17. New York Jets (Baltimore Ravens)
Baltimore has never shied away from wheeling and dealing on draft day to get a player they want. With a strong corner still on the board, look for the Ravens to give their ex-defensive coordinator a call here as they slide up a handful of picks in the draft order to fill a pressing need in a defensive backfield that has been hit hard by offseason departures.
PICK (RAVENS) – CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
18. Chicago Bears (Denver Broncos)
Coming into this draft, you have to figure that Denver had expected to land two of three of the following in round one: a new franchise quarterback, a lynchpin pass rusher, a front line defensive back. With the drafting of Everette Brown at No. 12, they may have gotten their pass rusher, but neither a franchise QB nor a quality defensive back option remain on the board, leaving Denver in a position where they are not picking for need. Despite the reality that Denver rarely goes this route in a draft's early stages, expect RB to be the selection here.
PICK (BRONCOS) – RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They would love to find a way to get their hands on Sanchez, but like Denver, those hopes will be dashed early once Cleveland makes him their choice. I also see Tampa making a run for Cleveland's Brady Quinn, though I ultimately expect Denver to make the better offer there. This will leave Tampa looking to get their guy through the draft, and Josh Freeman is an intriguing prospect in this regard, but I just don't know if he is a first round pick. With the recent signing of Leftwich, Tampa may have bought themselves some time, so look for them to focus on linebacker and grab a QB a bit later.
PICK — LB Brian Cushing, USC
20. Dallas Cowboys (Detroit Lions)
Detroit's need for an inside linebacker has many championing a selection of Aaron Curry with the top overall pick. I think that anybody who pays any attention to the draft at all will quickly realize that the better play is for Detroit to go after their QB early (Stafford) as a bevy of quality inside-backers will still be on the board at about this spot in the draft. As this plays out, the Lions will get their pick of those players and will take a safe, solid, hard-nosed inside guy.
PICK (LIONS) – LB Rey Maualuga, USC
21. Philadelphia Eagles (Arizona Cardinals)
Having filled gaping holes at OT and backup RB, expect Philly to deal this pick away. The likely partner? Rumors abound that the Cardinals would be willing to offer WR Anquan Boldin along with their second round pick for a shot at Beanie Wells. I am intrigued by that possibility.
PICK (CARDINALS) – RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Ohio State
22. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota will be in a good position to grab a nice player at a great value here. In light of a recent confirmation of Florida's Percy Harvin's positive drug test at the combine, expect the Vikes to opt for the more sure-handed and durable option to play opposite the speedy Berrian.
PICK — WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina
23. New England Patriots
I still don't know who New England will pick, as they keep such matters as well protected as the President's nuclear "football." Common sense dictates that a linebacker will be high on the list for the Pats, but since I have no earthly idea what the unpredictable Patriots will be doing, I'm going to go with Mel Kiper, Jr. on this one.
PICK — RB Donald Brown, Connecticut
24. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta should go defense here, and linebacker makes logical sense. Pettigrew was the pick in my mind all along, but it appears that the Falcons will be dealing a round two selection to Kansas City for Tony Gonzalez, filling that need pre-draft and allowing them to go defense with this pick.
PICK — LB Clay Matthews, USC
25. Miami Dolphins
Miami needs some help on defense, particularly at defensive back, but they aren't so desperate for such help that they'd be forced to reach this deep in round one. With nine draft picks at press time, the 'Fins will be able to take the best available player on their draft board here regardless of position and can focus more on need as they get deeper into their draft.
PICK — TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
26. Baltimore Ravens (New York Jets)
In trading down, the Jets will find themselves in a very nice position to pick up either a wide receiver to replace the departed Lavarenues Coles or a solid linebacker or defensive line option. While it is difficult to determine which of the two they will ultimately go with, I like New York to focus on the defensive side of the ball, at least early in this draft.
PICK (JETS) – DT Peria Jerry, Minnesota
27. Indianapolis Colts
In a prime spot for Indy to fill their newly created need for WR help, there are many late first round values here at that position for the Colts to choose from.
PICK — WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
28. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles will be in a nice spot here to land an impact defender. They may go linebacker, but I think this is a nice spot for the fast-rising ex-Vol defensive lineman.
PICK — DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee
29. New York Giants
With Burress cut loose, look for the Giants to grab a Burress-like option who played his college ball in their backyard and thus has likely been on their scouts radar screens for the better part of two seasons. It is possible that Cleveland is able to pry this pick away from the Giants in return for WR Braylon Edwards, but that scenario is looking less likely. If they are successful, expect the Browns to draft Britt here themselves, so either way, I think the Rutgers wideout goes No. 29 overall.
PICK — WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers
30. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee could stand to build some depth along their defensive front, especially with the aging Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon Kearse manning the end positions. Another option would be at linebacker, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear Laurinaitis' name called here, but my instincts tell me that they will be looking to fill a need at cornerback that should open up in a season or two. Virginia Tech's Harris plays a style very similar to what Tennessee looks for in its d-backs with his aggressive blitzing and ability against the run.
PICK — CB Victor Harris, Virginia Tech
31. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has needs at defensive end and linebacker, though neither is particular pressing. Having traded up to take Beanie Wells, who they are big on, they really will find themselves in a spot where they can take a versatile player that may be able to help in many areas of need. The Bearcats' Connor Barwin is as versatile a player as their is in this draft and would make a fine, intelligent pick.
PICK — DE/OLB/TE Connor Barwin, Cincinnati
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (New York Giants)
While many won't see the sense of the Giants trading away their two second round picks to get back into the first round, this is one of those moves predicated on who is available in a certain spot as the draft unfolds. The Giants will see a player available here that is both a great value pick and in a position of relative need, so it becomes a very savvy move when considering all the facts that will be in play.
PICK (GIANTS) – LB James Laurianaitis, Ohio State
As was mentioned, much has changed in this mock draft when compared to version one. Read on for a summary of why some of the players moved as they have.
RISING
QB Mark Sanchez, USC — Sanchez has shown all the skills to make any throw you ask of him in his workouts, but more importantly, he has come across as an effective leader with very high football intelligence, making him an ideal franchise quarterback option. Though it is beginning to look unlikely that he will challenge Stafford as the top QB taken, I will say that if the Lions ultimately pass on a QB that I would anticipate Stafford falling below Sanchez as I think he has become much more palatable to those teams thought to be out of the Stafford sweepstakes.
DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech — You just don't find too many defensive ends with the size that Johnson features that can run sub-4.5 in the 40-yard dash. Johnson looks great on tape, which is helping to solidify his position as the top pure DE in the draft. If not for the versatility that Arakpo, Maybin, and Brown bring to the table, Johnson would likely be the first defensive lineman taken, but he still stand to go early in round one and his status may change further as draft day nears.
LB Rey Maualuga, USC — While his weight and lack of straight-line speed had him grading out lower than the other Southern Cal linebackers early on, his nose for the ball and undeniable presence on tape have gradually helped his stock. Add to this the omission of his name from any of the (as yet unproven) recent steroid accusations and his stock continues to rise making him one of the more appealing linebacker prospects.
DE/LB/TE Connor Barwin, Cincinnati — Barwin is a player without a true position, which may hurt him some, but he has shown in drills that he is more than capable at all three of his listed positions. In fact, the footwork he has displayed on the defensive side of the ball really has captured the attention of several would-be suitors and his football IQ just adds to the appeal. Expect Barwin to be drafted in round one, which is high praise considering he at one point wasn't even looked at as a day one option.
FALLING
OT Andre Smith, Alabama — While the kid has shown a bit more discipline in recent weeks in keeping his weight down and following all instructions to a tee, it is the workouts themselves that are surprisingly hurting his stock. On film, Smith is a road-grater along the offensive line, but many are questioning the competition as they point out that the most impressive blocks came against younger, over-matched defenders. Smith has shown a lack of strength that is troubling. While he still stands to be a top-15 pick at the very worst, that is a far cry from the top overall grade he received in December.
RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Ohio State — Wells is still going to go right around the bottom edge of the top 20, which is pretty close to his positioning all along. The drop is more around the fact that he is no longer considered the top prospect at his position and, if not for Arizona's apparent infatuation with his skill set, may well be considered third best behind Moreno and UConn's Donald Brown. This is a big disappointment for Wells, who was highly regarded at the start of the season and heralded as a potential top-10 pick.
WR Percy Harvin, Florida — With the marijuana accusations still fresh on everyone's mind, Harvin finds himself having to answer all the wrong types of questions. Still, this late drop in value will actually work out very well for teams looking to get talent on the cheap early in round two. The worry for Harvin is if he doesn't say all the right things leading up to draft weekend, he may well fall out of rounds one and two altogether, costing him millions.
LB Clay Matthews, USC — It may well turn out that Matthews and Cushing, among others, are cleared of the steroid accusations levied against them recently. That said, Matthews is a guy that isn't grading out as well as he had been earlier now that he has participated in his pro day workouts and had further one-on-one meetings with teams. It isn't that Matthews value is dropping off too much, it is more like it is remaining steady as the value of others, most notably his teammate Maualuga, moves consistently upwards.
There you have it; the first round of the 2009 NFL draft, set to go down officially on Saturday, April 25th. Be sure to print this story and have it next to you as you settle in for a riveting afternoon of Mel Kiper, Chris Berman, and Co!
After all, without "the most accurate mock draft on the planet," how do you expect to follow along on draft day?
Stay tuned for SC's Seth Doria's NFL mock draft, coming next week!
