It's not looking so far like the most balanced, parity-laden season in NFL history, is it? As noted in Brad Oremland's column, five teams are 4-0 for the first time in NFL history — but five teams are also 0-4. Another team is 0-3 (there but for the grace of the bye week go the Panthers). Still another team, the Redskins, are 2-2, but earned those victories at home, by a total of five points, over two of the winless teams. There are a lot of teams in the NFL who could make a claim for the worst — and amazingly, the Lions and the Raiders aren't even among them.
The very worst team probably comes from the unholy triptych of the Browns, Buccaneers, and Rams. But I have the cure for what ails each. They will still be bad, but to be just slightly improved over the flotsam of the NFL could mean a 9-7 season and perhaps the playoffs.
The Rams are a bit a puzzler, because they still have some key pieces remaining from their more successful years. They are also a puzzler because they are simply doing everything bad, so there's not much good to build on. They don't score, and they give up a ton of points. They are tied for 26th in turnover differential, and have committed the most penalties in the NFL.
They still run the ball well with Steven Jackson, but he can't do it all himself. Get more carries to Kenneth Darby and Samkon Gado. This will keep Jackson more fresh in the fourth quarter, which is good because the Rams should be running even more than they are now, just to open up the occasional downfield opportunity to Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson ... if Kyle Boller can do any better than Marc Bulger at getting the ball to them, that is. Remember when Bulger was good? The turnovers and penalty stats clearly indicate more discipline and concentration is in order. Hire a hypnotist or something.
I don't want to belabor the Bucs to death because I've written extensively on them already in recent columns, but they also need to pound the run, even when they're behind. Playoffs are not in the offing for them this year, so they have a chance to develop a decent offensive game plan around a young core. The Bucs did well to sign Derrick Ward, who quietly rushed for 1,000 yards last year as Brandon Jacobs' understudy. That takes heat off the talented but injury-prone Cadillac Williams, who was worked to death during this rookie year and has paid the price since.
Josh Johnson looked good in the first half against the Redskins, prior to an uninspiring second half. He still has earned another start at least.
They also need some playcalling guts. With about five minutes remaining and two timeouts left, down by six, the Bucs opted for a field goal at 4th-and-goal from the four. These conservative decisions are not the ones 0-4 teams should be making; nay, they should go for broke.
The Browns made an even more outrageously conservative decision. With 19 seconds left in a tie game, the Browns had 4th-and-10 from the Bengals' 39 ... and they punted.
I don't mean to turn this into a Gregg Easterbrook column, but think about that for a second. Ask yourselves which of these scenarios is the most likely?
A) The Browns get the first down to the 30 or beyond and have a reasonable length, game-winning field goal to try.
B) The Browns go for the 56-yard field goal, which is a length that doesn't lend itself to a great success rate, but every NFL kicker should at least be capable of booting a 56-yarder.
C) They fail on A or B, the Bengals get the ball back at no better than their own 46 with no more than 14 seconds left and two timeouts, get into field goal range in that time, and win it.
Am I crazy that thinking A and B are more likely to occur than C? Because even if A or B don't work out — and they might — you still leave a tall order for the Bengals to make you pay for it. It's just insane not to try to win the game there, one way or another, from your opponent's 39. Isn't it?
This is usually where Easterbrook talks about how coaches do this to protect their jobs rather than "challenging" his players, and I'm only with him partway on that. I do like his point that coaches, it is clear, are happy to say to themselves, "If I make conservative decisions and we lose, it's players' fault. If we gamble and take chances that backfire, it's my fault." That's why you see crazy decisions like the one above made (presumably) by Browns head coach Eric Mangini.
But another reason is I think a lot of coaches, perhaps Mangini and Raheem Morris among them, aren't really honest with themselves about the ability of their teams. These teams are bad. They don't have the talent, the quality of players, that most teams in the league do. Specifically, the Browns are not as good, not as talented, as the Bengals. So it's not to their advantage to play for overtime against a more talented team.
Rather, the way for a less-talented team to beat a better team is precisely to take more chances — trick plays, unconventional formations, confusion-causing schemes. If you can't outplay them, outcoach them. Chapter 1 in this book is Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. Chapter 2 is Princeton's near miss against Georgetown in the 1989 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Chapter 3 is this article by Malcolm Gladwell.
Bolder coaching isn't the Browns' only problem. Their electrifying playmakers are Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs, and they need more touches, with an emphasis on routes and blocking schemes that will get them into the open field.
Cleveland is starting to see the light a little bit on Harrison, who leads the team in rushing attempts. Cribbs is still largely relegated to kick return duties.
Interestingly, the Browns have a history of incorrectly utilizing small, lightning-fast running backs. As a kid in Northeast Ohio, I remember seeing t-shirts comparing the then Browns head coach to Butthead, standing on the sidelines with Beavis. The coach's talk balloon would say, "Huh-huh! Huh-huh! (Eric) Metcalf up the middle!"
I guess that shirt goes to show that even coaching legends aren't immune from potshots from guys like me early in their career, so there's hope yet for Morris and Mangini. The Browns coach on the t-shirt was Bill Belichick. Beavis and Belichick, it read.
October 8, 2009
Anna:
I wouldn’t include Tampa Bay in the worst three teams. They are better than the Chiefs!
Where in Northeast Ohio are you from?
October 9, 2009
James:
Laurent Robinson is out for the year, which means the Rams have absolutely nobody to throw to other than Avery. Doesn’t everyone say the NFC west is the worst division in football, too (along w/ the AFC west)? The Rams have been outscored 63-0 in their division this year. They have 0 pts in the 1st quarter of their 4 games this year. They’ve drafted poorly in recent years, and the plethora of penalties indicates Spags’ message isn’t getting across to his team. Lack of discipline can always be traced back to the coach. That said, the Browns looked competitive this past wk against a reasonable team. The Bucs looked competitive against a horrible team but still lost anyway. My worst teams list (starting w/ the worst) is: STL, TB, KC, OAK, WAS, CLE, DET.