Let's face it: the past decade in the NBA has been dominated by the Western Conference.
Seven of the 10 NBA champions in the 2000s came from the West. More often than not, the Western Conference Finals played out like the NBA Finals; whoever won was going to win the NBA title.
But like in every major sport, these things work in cycles. In the '90s, seven of the 10 NBA champions came from the Eastern Conference (Michael Jordan had a little something to do with that).
It's way too early predict an East Coast revival for the teens, but the way I see it, heading into the 2009-10 season, there are five legit contenders for the NBA title: Lakers, Spurs, Cavs, Magic, and Celtics. There are other teams that intrigue me, and obviously with trades and buyouts looming, a lot can change, but as of right now, the East has three of the top five teams in the league.
It's not exactly a revival, but it's a start.
Today, in part three of our "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season" preview, I'll break down the former Leastern Conference and predict how each team will fare as they begin a new decade of basketball.
Lottery Teams
30. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Record: 21-61
Talk about a team with no identity. When you think of the Bucks, what's the first thing that comes to mind?
Exactly. There isn't one thing that stands out about this team.
They drafted Brandon Jennings, the biggest question mark of the draft lottery because he went overseas instead of going to college, so no one has really seen him play. He might be the real deal for all we know, but I'll believe it when I see it.
I love Michael Redd, and I think that Andrew Bogut, when he's healthy, is a solid NBA center. The problem is, they've had these two guys playing together for four seasons and haven't done anything. It's clearly not enough.
They traded away all of Redd's scoring help in Richard Jefferson, and got next to nothing back in return. Rebuilding mode is in full effect in Milwaukee, I just can't tell which direction they are heading.
Also, they have by far the worst television presentation in the league. Catching the Milwaukee feed on the League pass is like taking a time machine back to the late-'80s. They never seem to be in HD, and I'm pretty sure their play-by-play guy is the same guy who announces the Flint Tropics games in Will Ferrell's "Semi-Pro." And just like "Semi-Pro," it's pretty unwatchable after about 10 minutes.
It's going to be a long season for Scott Skiles, that is, if he even makes it through the season.
29. Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Record: 31-51
Here's the problem with predicting the bottom half of the Eastern Conference: seven teams finished within seven games of making the playoffs last season.
Inevitably, some are going to get better, some are going to get worse, and some are going to repeat last season.
In the case of the Bobcats, they're going to get slightly worse for one reason: Larry Brown.
Yeah, I know Brown is notorious for taking bad teams and turning them around. And he had the 'Cats in the thick of things before a late-season collapse put them back in their familiar seat at the lottery drawing last May.
But here's the other thing Brown is famous for: trading away his whole team and starting over. The Bobcats had an amazing 24 different players play for them at some point last season. I couldn't find it for sure on Basketball-Reference.com (which means you probably can't find it), but I'm assuming that's some sort of a record.
Here's the problem: Brown isn't done. He traded away the Bobcat's most consistent performer and the closest thing to the face of the franchise in Emeka Okafor this offseason for Tyson Chandler.
You simply can't win with the entire team walking on eggshells like that. By the end of this season, Pound For Pound will probably have the roster set to his liking, which makes the Bobcats a playoff threat in 2011, not 2010.
28. New York Knicks
Projected Record: 32-50
The Knicks aren't going to be any better this season because they're clearly just waiting patiently for the summer of 2010 to rebuild their team through free agency.
There's your 2009-10 Knick preview.
Now, I'm using this space to vent about the referee lockout.
Already this preseason we've had a game with over 100 free throws, two coaches fined for criticizing the officials, and we're still eight days away from these games even counting.
The league is locking out the referees over a $700,000 difference in opinion in what the two sides feel like the budget for referees should be, or approximately what the NBA charges for one block of commercials during the NBA Finals.
And here's the worst part about it: the offer that the refs made to the league was less money than they made last season. They are volunteering to take a pay cut because times are tough economically in the NBA, and that's still not good enough for David Stern.
Stern is essentially telling the fans that he'd rather put out an inferior product than pay the referees fair market value.
Even despite all this, I promised myself that I wouldn't snap over the use of replacement referees until a prominent rabbi had to step in and defuse a volatile situation between replacement refs and an assistant coach.
Ladies and gentlemen, I've snapped.
27. New Jersey Nets
Projected Record: 35-47
Last season in my preview of the Nets, I said that the only thing I like about this team is that Jay-Z owns 1.8% of them.
This year I like two things: Jay-Z owning 1.8% of them, and Brook Lopez.
I think this guy is the real deal. I even predicted him to be the third team All-NBA Center this season. He's poised for a breakout season. I can't stress that enough. If you take one thing away from the "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season," it should be that.
26. Washington Wizards
Projected Record: 36-46
Last week, I predicted that new Wizards head coach Flip Saunders would win coach of the year. I was all set to pick the Wizards to make the playoffs and make them my sleeper team in the East.
Then I saw Antawn Jamison get hurt this week and I realized: even when this team was healthy, they were nothing more than a 45-48 win team. What are the chances that they can stay healthy again?
Not to mention, Gilbert Arenas is a huge question mark this season. He lost his personality along with his explosiveness last season, and that's not a good thing. Gilbert needs to be a strong personality. It's part of his game. 95% of the league plays worse when they are chatting with fans and opposing players. Gilbert is in the other 5%.
If his on-the-court demeanor matches what we've seen from him off the court this preseason, the Wizards are in trouble. But if Gilbert gets his swagger back, and Jamison isn't injured too badly, the Wizards can make the move into the playoffs.
But until it happens, I still consider them to be a lottery team.
25. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Record: 39-43
Philly was a prime example of an overachieving team last season. Their best player, Elton Brand, got hurt last season and they still made the playoffs. The reason they made the playoffs: Andre Miller.
In a related story, Andre Miller now plays for the Trail Blazers.
He was the heart and soul of this team last season, and he carried them down the stretch and in the Orlando Series. You can't replace a guy like Miller with just anyone.
So who did the Sixers tap to replace Miller?
That's not rhetorical, I'm asking.
Look at their roster. Who's going to play point guard for this team?
They have some weapons at the wing positions, and I don't mind Elton Brand, or even Sam Dalembert, but with nobody to initiate the offense, I can't see this team getting back to the playoffs this year.
24. Toronto Raptors
Projected Record: 40-42
Toronto swung for the fences this offseason when they signed Hedo Turkoglu.
Not because he's necessarily going to be a difference maker for this team, but because that was their last ditch effort to sign Chris Bosh.
They literally spent everything they had on the best available free agent to prove to Bosh that they were committed to winning with him there.
Here's the problem: I don't think Turkoglu is a great fit in Toronto.
What made him such a weapon for the Magic is that they ran the offense through him. He was able to score and distribute, and his size made him tough to match up with.
In Toronto, they already have someone in Jose Calderon to run the offense through. As good as Turkaglo is, he's not better at initiating an offense than Calderon, especially an offense that he's never played in before.
On paper, the addition of Turkoglu makes the Raptors look like a better team. But when you start to consider how they are actually going to have to use him, the 2010 version of this team doesn't look a whole lot better than the 2009 version.
Get your tickets now, Raptors fans. There are only 41 more chances to see Chris Bosh play for your team.
Playoff Teams
23. Indiana Pacers
Projected Record: 41-41
The Pacers won 36 games last season, and that was a best-case-scenario for that team. Mike Dunleavy, Jr., their second best player, only played in 18 games all of last season. If he can play a full season, that alone could be good enough for an extra five wins.
Danny Granger established himself as a legit NBA star last season, and he only played in 66 games. Troy Murphy was the first player in NBA history to finish the season in the top five in both rebounding and three-point percentage, and he only played in 73 games. T.J. Ford played 74 games, which is staying healthy by his standards, but that's still missing eight games.
Then there's Roy Hibbert, who showed flashes of being a formidable NBA center in his rookie season, aside from his almost unbelievable 7.7 fouls per 36 minutes. If he continues to grow and learns how to play defense without fouling, that's a very good core for this team.
Maybe it's asking too much for all of these guys to stay healthy for an entire season, but if they do, don't be surprised if the Pacers are a .500 team and earn the right to get swept by the Cavs.
22. Detroit Pistons
Projected Record 41-41
For some reason, I've decided to give the tiebreaker between the Pistons and Pacers to the Pistons.
I don't know how many different ways I can say it: I hated what the Pistons did this offseason. I don't mind Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva as players; I definitely mind the fact that they spent over $100 million to get them.
Then there's Rodney Stuckey. He's been anointed the starting point guard despite showing no signs that he's good enough to earn the job and having the skill-set of a two-guard.
They have no inside presence on offense and no solid perimeter defenders. Trust me, I've watch Tayshaun Prince up close for all six of his NBA seasons, he's as overrated as a defender as you can get. He shuts down bad players, gets torched by good players. Watch a Piston game when they play against LeBron, Paul Pierce, and any other good small forward in the league. For a "lock-down" defender, he sure has trouble guarding them.
Still, despite all that, the Pistons are good enough to beat bad teams. They're gonna score, there's no doubt about that, and they have streaky shooters like Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton that can get hot and win games for them.
Maybe we've just been so spoiled in Detroit by six straight trips to the conference finals that I'm disgusted with the Pistons now settling into being an average NBA team, but until this group proves me wrong or I accept that fact that the Pistons are just average, I refuse to write anything good about them.
Projecting them to win 41 games is as nice as I can see myself being to this team for the foreseeable future.
21. Atlanta Hawks
Projected Record: 46-36
I really want to revisit this team in three weeks. I want to see them play like 5-7 games this season and get a feel for them. As of right now, I see them as anywhere between a 40- and a 52-win team. So for now, I'll split the difference.
Here's my big issue with projecting how the season will play out for the Hawks: I don't know what to make of the Jamal Crawford signing.
Is he going to accept his role as sixth man? Is he going to take minutes away from Joe Johnson or Mike Bibby? Are they going to play all three of those players together? If they do, are they going to be good enough defensively to beat good teams? And what does that mean for Marvin Williams?
I have so many questions about the Hawks this year. But when you get down to it, the real problem I have is that the Hawks have too much talent to play everyone at once. Is that really such a bad problem to have?
I'll stop asking questions for now, but rest assured I'll be revisiting this team a few weeks from now after a few visits to Philips Arena via the NBA League Pass.
20. Chicago Bulls
Projected Record: 48-34
If you watched the Bulls in the playoffs at all last season, you know that this team is ready for big things. Maybe not ready for an NBA title, or even a division title thanks to Cleveland, but they are going to be a team no one wants to play in the playoffs.
In fact, if it wasn't for Derrick Rose's ankle injury, I'd have the Bulls as a 50-win team. Missing camp like this means it might take him a week or two to hit his stride, which accounts for the two extra losses.
Losing Ben Gordon hurts because he was their one true outside threat, but it means more touches for Luol Deng and John Salmons, both of whom are more than capable of filling it up on any given night.
Joakim Noah has played great in the preseason, and Tyrus Thomas is due to finally reach his potential.
The Bulls are going to be good but not great, but they'll establish themselves this season as a very nice destination for a capable big man and a big name, championship caliber coach this offseason.
Look for 2010 to be the stepping stone into elite status for the Bulls.
19. Miami Heat
Projected Record: 50-32
I like the Heat to win 50 games for three reasons. First, they have Dwyane Wade, who basically single-handedly won 43 games for them last season.
Secondly, Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley have a year of experience under their belts. They both put up decent numbers last season, especially for rookies. Naturally, you'd expect their production to increase in year two, in turn increasing the Heat's win total.
Granted, Beasley isn't exactly a sure thing, but hopefully his "vacation" this offseason helped him focus on basketball and he's able to tap into the enormous potential that he has.
And the final reason I'm picking the Heat to win 50 games: Pat Riley. I wrote earlier in the preview that this will be one of the most active trade deadlines in recent memory. With so many good players playing on expiring contracts, some of them are bound to get moved at the deadline. Is there another GM in the league more likely to pounce on a rent-with-an-option-to-buy superstar than Pat Riley?
The Heat are pretty good as constructed. I'm pretty sure they'll be even better by February 23rd.
18. Boston Celtics
Projected Record: 60-22
'Sheed [Wallace] thinks the Celtics can win 72 games. Let's ask him again in January when he realizes that in order to do that he'd have to play hard for all 82 games.
In fact, that's going to be the issue for the Celtics all season. They've gotten good enough to where the regular season doesn't matter anymore. Last year, they came out and won 27 of their first 29 games.
Then injuries and the dog days of winter set in, and they realized that they were going to win their division by 20 games and packed it in, realizing that a 70-win pace is pointless if it leaves you gassed for the playoffs.
Boston wasn't really Boston without K.G. in the playoffs last year, but it could have been a blessing in disguise. I don't think that they were good enough to compete with Orlando, Cleveland, or the Lakers even with a healthy Garnett last season.
But if they made a deep playoff run and came up short, they might have given that group one more shot.
But by getting bounced in the second round, they decide it was vital to get better up front, and added Rasheed Wallace. Now they start five weapons on offense and have two great post defenders on defense.
The trade-off is that they have one of the oldest starting fives in the league. They look good on paper, but if their aging stars aren't all healthy come April, we could be looking at a repeat of the 2009 season in Boston.
17. Orlando Magic
Projected Record: 62-20
The Magic had by far the best offseason of any team in the Eastern Conference. That's no small feat for a team that just played in the NBA Finals.
The addition of Vince Carter makes them scary good on offense, and with a healthy Jameer Nelson, the sky is the limit for how good this team can be.
The 10-game suspension for Rashard Lewis hurts a little bit, because that's 10 games that this team could spend getting comfortable with one another after adding Vince to the lineup, but it still leaves 72 games to work out all the kinks before the real season starts for them.
The suspension plus the adjustment period once Lewis gets back will result in fewer regular season wins than the Cavs, but as of right now, I think that Orlando is the better team and would take Cleveland in a seven game series, with or without home court advantage.
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Record 64-18
LeBron. Enough said.
They didn't lose any key players and they added Shaq. There's your 64 wins, at least.
But 64 wins isn't good enough for this team anymore. I know it, you know it, and LeBron knows it. Anything short of a title is a failure. That's what happens when you get as good as LeBron.
LeBron's BFF, Jay-Z, rapped one time, "The pressure's on, but guess who ain't gonna crack?"
This could be LeBron's last chance to bring an NBA title to his hometown. The pressure's on. Will LeBron and the Cavs crack yet again, or will Cleveland finally celebrate with a long overdue parade?
We won't know that until June, but I plan on enjoying every second of the show until we get there.
Eight more days. Just eight more days.
Be sure to check back at Sports Central next Monday as Scott Shepherd wraps up his "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season" preview with a look at the Western Conference.
