Five Quick Hits
* All NFL fans owe our gratitude to the East Coast stadium crews who got the fields ready after record snowfalls this weekend. Thanks, you did a great job.
* I hope the Browns made their job offer to Mike Holmgren contingent upon his promising not to hire Jim Zorn or Dick Jauron as head coach.
* Phil Simms said on Sunday that Cincinnati has "one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The numbers don't lie." In this case, though, they actually do. DT Domata Peko hasn't played in three weeks and the team isn't the same without him.
* The Bengals were dealing with a very difficult situation this week, and I was impressed with the way they handled it. They looked inspired and played their best game in more than a month. Playing anyone else, they probably would have won. Sympathy and respect.
* Nick Folk this week became the second kicker to lose his job after missing a short field goal against the Saints. Ironically, he was replaced by the other one, Shaun Suisham. Big upgrade there, Dallas.
***
For the most part, I like NBC's Sunday night broadcast. Al Michaels is a solid play-by-play guy, Cris Collinsworth is capable of valuable in-game analysis, and getting Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann back together on a sports broadcast was a coup. But NBC was eating its words this weekend, and I hope they're hungry, because they're likely to get more of the same.
Last weekend, Tony Dungy declared for some reason that the Cowboys had "no chance" to beat the Saints in Week 15. After the Cowboys' victory, Tony Romo mentioned that Dungy's guarantee had been circulating through the Dallas locker room. Patrick, doing the highlights, spent about 15 seconds riffing on Pittsburgh losing its sixth straight game, crashing and burning. This was shortly after the Steelers scored a game-winning touchdown to end their losing streak at five.
There's more fuel for the fire, now, too. This Sunday, asked about the most dangerous 7-7 team in the AFC, Rodney Harrison replied, "There's no question it's Pittsburgh." Hold on. The Steelers have lost five of their last six. The Titans have won seven of their last eight. The Dolphins get Pittsburgh at home in Week 17 and will probably be favored. Isn't there at least a question that Tennessee or Miami might be the more dangerous team? This is the same thing that got Dungy into trouble. Simply say, "I think it's Pittsburgh," and you're merely expressing an opinion. Declare something absolutely, and it's bulletin board material, mea culpa material.
Finally, Collinsworth continues to propagate the myth that Minnesota's 40-year-old quarterback is "playing absolutely the best football of his career." In fact, said Collinsworth, "It's not even close." We've already debunked this, but let's compare 2009 to his first MVP season, 1995.
1995: 359-570, 4,413 yards, 38 TD, 13 INT, 99.5 rating
2009: 312-460, 3,565 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT, 104.1 rating
On the surface, that's close, which is already enough to disprove Collinsworth. I don't know where he gets his "not even close." But let me show that 1995 was clearly better. First of all, Green Bay played a harder schedule that year (.492) than the Vikings have in '09 (.413). Not only did the Packers play better defenses, those defenses were concentrating on shutting down the pass. The QB in question had already made Pro Bowls by that time, and RB Edgar Bennett didn't scare anyone. That's in stark contrast to this year's team, when every defense the Vikings face starts by trying to contain Adrian Peterson. Surely even Collinsworth would concede that it's easier to throw against teams focused on stopping the run. You see fewer defenders in coverage and less aggressive pass rush, plus your play-action is more effective. Those are all advantages that are present in '09 but weren't in '95.
Now let's look at the numbers again, this time projected for a full 16-game schedule:
1995: 359-570, 4,413 yards, 38 TD, 13 INT, 99.5 rating
2009: 357-526, 4,074 yards, 31 TD, 8 INT, 104.1 rating
In 1995, he had more completions, more yards, more TDs, and a better TD/INT differential. The rating appears to be a little better this year, but it's actually not. Offensive strategy and rules have changed in the last 15 years. In 1995, the average passer rating was 77.5; this season, it's 81.5. His rating then was 28.4% above average, compared to 27.7% this season. And remember, this year he's had a much easier schedule, defenses focused on the run, and home games in a dome. He also ran better in '95 (181 yards and another 3 TDs) than '09 (5 yards, no TDs) and got sacked less often (33 times, compared to a 35-sack pace this year). 1995 was a better season, but Collinsworth may have been right about one thing: it's not close.
I would argue that 1995 wasn't even this guy's best season; 1996 was. All I'm asking is that these announcers and analysts ditch the needless hyperbole. Don't state opinions as facts. Don't say "no question" or "not close" when there's a great deal of question. Don't bury a team before the game is over. On to the rankings, brackets show last week's rank.
1. Indianapolis Colts [2] — Seem to have learned their lesson. This team has always failed in the playoffs after resting its starters. The 2006 squad that won the Super Bowl was probably the worst Colts team of the last five years, but it played hard in Week 17 and went into the postseason with some rhythm and momentum. What was up with Dallas Clark's butterfingers on Thursday, though? He almost dropped his first touchdown and bobbled another pass into an interception. The Colts' 7 fourth-quarter comebacks this season are a league record.
2. San Diego Chargers [3] — Last week, I predicted a double-digit victory against the Bengals, and instead they won on a last-minute field goal that they were only in position for because of an official's error. I think Chris Henry's death inspired Cincinnati to play its best and I don't think the game would be as close if they played again. That inspiration still wasn't enough to end San Diego's nine-game winning streak. During the streak, the Chargers have outscored their opponents 265-147, winning by an average of almost two touchdowns (13.1). How about some love for kicker Nate Kaeding? Referee error or not, the kid nailed a 52-yard game-winning field goal with 3 seconds left. San Diego has won more games with special teams than anyone else this decade.
3. New Orleans Saints [1] — If the loss on Saturday night surprised you, you haven't been paying attention. Injuries have become a big issue, particularly on defense. Dallas racked up a 13-minute edge in time of possession on Saturday. Story of the game: Dallas converted more than half of its third downs, the Saints just 1 out of 7. Left tackle Jermon Bushrod got absolutely destroyed in the game. I put that failure on the coaching staff. Bushrod needed help, and he didn't get it. A sixth blocker is more important than a fifth receiver in that situation.
4. Tennessee Titans [5] — Who would you rather play right now, the Vikings or the Titans? Minnesota has lost more games in the last three weeks than Tennessee has in the last two months. I'd love to see the Titans sneak into the playoffs, but it's just not going to happen. They'd have to win both of their remaining games, and Baltimore or Denver would have to lose both of theirs. Also, the Jets, Steelers, and Jags would all have to lose again. Too many factors outside their control, not to mention they have to beat San Diego. Vince Young continues to dazzle. I don't know where this came from, but he's one of the 10 best QBs in the league right now.
5. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — Playmakers in the secondary. Asante Samuel intercepted his 8th pass of the season. Quintin Mikell intercepted a pass. Sheldon Brown made several key tackles and forced a fumble. The 49ers went 0/11 on third downs this weekend (they did make 3/4 fourth down conversions). The offense might be even better than the defense, though. In his two games since returning from a concussion, DeSean Jackson has 318 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns (1 on a punt return).
6. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Looked focused and disciplined on Saturday night. Tony Romo this December: 82-119, 953 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rating. His average game is 318 yards and 2 TDs with no picks. He's had a passer rating over 100 in each game. Even if the Cowboys had lost this weekend, that wouldn't make Romo or his teammates chokers. It would just mean that they had lost to the two of the three best teams in the league, plus a tough road game against a division opponent with a winning record. This December curse is a B.S. story, and it's especially frustrating because most of the people perpetuating it realize that it's B.S.
7. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Defense has improved a ton since the beginning of the season. In their six games before the bye, the Ravens allowed an average of 21.7 points per game. In the eight games since, that number has dropped to 12.4. This team could be scary if it qualifies for the postseason, especially as a division winner. Baltimore is 6-2 at home.
8. Arizona Cardinals [6] — Disturbingly blah performances the last two weeks, losing to San Francisco and nearly going to overtime with Detroit. The Cardinals have two home games left and need to capture some kind of momentum if they're going to replicate last year's improbable Super Bowl run. Larry Fitzgerald has been shut down in three of the last four weeks. Arizona is 8-2 when he has at least 50 yards, 1-3 when he doesn't.
9. Minnesota Vikings [7] — Time to worry. I figured the loss to Arizona was just a bad matchup against a good team. But now they've lost two of three, and looked really bad in both losses. The QB is going through another December slump (this one is for real; the man is 40) and the defense is affected by injuries. But what has happened to Adrian Peterson? He did have a nice run-after-catch this weekend, but in the last month, he's averaging 64 yards per game and 3.2 per carry, with no 100-yard games. The blocking is still there, particularly on inside runs, and Peterson isn't seeing a ton of 8- or 9-man fronts. This offense doesn't run without A.P., and right now, he's not running. Antoine Winfield has been getting burned since his return from injury. Yeah, the man can hit. But right now, he can't cover. Sunday's game turned into a rout in the fourth quarter. The Vikings were outgained by 160 yards, went 1/10 on third downs, and lost time of possession by 16 minutes.
10. Green Bay Packers [4] — Win streak ends at five, against a team that clearly wanted it more. The Packers know they basically have a wild card sewn up, and the Steelers knew they had to win. Bottom line, Green Bay's defense didn't show up. It's hard to fault the offense. Aaron Rodgers played a tremendous game (405 total yards, 4 TDs, no turnovers) and Ryan Grant was effective in limited action. The game featured 973 yards of offense.
11. Miami Dolphins [12] — According to pro-football-reference.com, they've played the hardest schedule in the NFL this year. In the next two weeks, the Dolphins face a pair of teams (Houston and Pittsburgh) with whom they are competing for a playoff spot. That's a mixed blessing, as the games won't be easy, but both are at home, and Miami has a chance to knock out two rivals. The NFC playoff picture is almost set at this point, but the AFC is still a wild race, with 12 teams alive.
12. New England Patriots [13] — Finally won in an opponent's stadium. The Pats are 7-0 at home, 1-0 at neutral sites, and 1-5 on the road. Tom Brady has a 103.4 passer rating at home, compared to 79.3 on the road. Brady also seems to be afflicted by the omnipresent December curse: his rating was 96.5 entering the month, but in the last three weeks, it's 79.4. Eerie! Everyone is cursed in December! Except Philip Rivers! I could see New England winning a home playoff game, but it's tough to imagine them beating the Colts or Chargers on the road.
13. Denver Broncos [9] — Is any team harder to figure out? They started 6-0, then lost four straight in ugly fashion. They rebound with two huge wins and then lose another two in a row. If they don't win in Philadelphia this week, they probably won't make the playoffs. Kyle Orton played well this week, but he passed 34 times. This team is most successful when it runs the ball. The Broncos are 6-1 when they pass fewer than 30 times.
14. New York Giants [15] — Offense has been on fire recently, scoring 31, 38, and 45 points in the last three weeks. They dominated Monday's game to an extent that defies analysis. Osi Umenyiora destroyed Levi Jones, and New York piled up 16 first downs before Washington finally got one on a Jason Campbell scramble. The Giants have won four in a row against Washington, and seven of the last eight.
15. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — Please don't misinterpret this as disrespect for a mournful situation. I had nothing against Chris Henry, and people who knew him seem to have cared about him a great deal. But I question the sincerity of Chad Ochocinco's behavior in the wake of Henry's death. Chad has deliberately cultivated a certain image with the media, and has made it clear that he will do everything within his power to get on camera. The consequence is that when he speaks about something serious like this, I don't believe him. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. The honest man mourns in private. The hypocrite makes sure people see him. Chad may be sincere, but he's put himself in a position where he is not to be believed. He's the boy who cried put-me-on-camera.
16. Washington Redskins [14] — I've said this before, but Walt Coleman absolutely cannot be an NFL referee any longer after this season. Monday was the last straw. In a fight with punches thrown, how does only one penalty get called and no one ejected? Take a minute and think of the ten most heinous referee mistakes you can remember from the last 15 seasons. Coleman is probably responsible for about half of them. Tuck rule? Coleman. Last year's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game with Santonio Holmes at the goal line? That's him, too. The 2002 Vikings/Packers game in which the league admitted Coleman made at least nine mistakes? Yeah. The Week 9 Cowboys/Eagles game in which Coleman denied Donovan McNabb a first down ... I could go on. How do you get one penalty and no ejections in a fight with punches thrown on both sides? This is not excusable any more. The league cannot keep him after this year.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Great offensive gameplan and performance against the Colts. When you control time of possession (+11 minutes) and score 31 points, you expect to win. Their defense just couldn't stop the Colts. I'm not sure that's anyone's fault. You just have to hope you catch them on an off night, and the Jags didn't. I like defense as much as the next person (probably more, in fact), but that was a fun game.
18. Carolina Panthers [21] — Played an inspired second half. The whole offense lit up, but QB Matt Moore deserves special recognition. Moore is 2-1 as starter, with an 88.0 passer rating, compared to Jake Delhomme's 4-7 record and 59.4 rating. Moore throws a nice deep ball and he avoided the critical mistakes Delhomme has been prone to. The offensive line did a great job giving Moore time on Sunday night. Carolina's most important player this weekend was DE Julius Peppers. He was only officially credited with one sack, but Peppers absolutely took over the game in the second half.
19. Houston Texans [18] — Andre Johnson has two straight games with over 190 receiving yards, the only player in history to do so. Johnson needs to be double-covered on every play (except by the Jets, who have Darrelle Revis). In fact, I would play nickel against Houston on first down. The team has no idea who its running back is, and Matt Schaub is second in the NFL in passing yards.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers [23] — I still don't like the onside kick, but Mike Tomlin's explanation makes sense. He didn't believe his defense could stop Green Bay, and he was probably right. By kicking onside, the Steelers could get the ball back and run the clock or maybe score. If Green Bay recovered, it would score more quickly with a short field and Pittsburgh would have time to answer. This was a great win, but the Steelers have two tough games left, and they're unlikely to make the playoffs.
21. San Francisco 49ers [19] — Would they still be in playoff contention if Michael Crabtree had signed earlier? The Niners actually have a worse record (3-6) with Crabtree than without him (3-2), but I think that's a scheduling fluke. Would Crabtree have been worth three points — or even just a few more seconds — in the Minnesota loss? He's played well since joining the team, and they could have used another weapon early in the season. If I was Shaun Hill, I'd be a little bitter.
22. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Got Matt Ryan back and played really well on defense, but they basically won because the Jets couldn't make a field goal. It was only the team's second road win of the year.
23. New York Jets [20] — NFL math: NYJ - INT = playoffs. The Jets are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they're good running the ball. With a decent game-manager at quarterback, a Kyle Orton or David Garrard, they'd be a playoff shoo-in. Instead, they repeatedly give games away on turnovers. Defenses have figured out Mark Sanchez. In the first month of the season, Sanchez threw 4 TDs and 2 INTs, with an 87.7 passer rating. Since then: 8 TDs, 18 INTs, 53.7 rating. The offensive line plays below its reputation. It also bears noting that the Jets have lost two games this season directly because of special teams.
24. Cleveland Browns [29] — Two straight wins, and they haven't been really blown out since before the bye. Here is Brady Quinn's amazing stat line in their 41-34 victory: 10-17, 66 yards, 2 INT, 27.7 rating. You can get away with that when Jerome Harrison rushes for 286 yards (third-most all-time) and Josh Cribbs returns two kickoffs for touchdowns. Cribbs now holds the career record for KR TDs (8).
25. Oakland Raiders [27] — Won on on a touchdown by their third-string QB (demoted starter JaMarcus Russell). Even fourth-stringer J.P. Losman got into the game briefly. Can you imagine Mike Shanahan's reaction if he were still coaching the Broncos? The teams Oakland has beaten have a combined record of 37-33. The 3-11 Chiefs drag that down, but the other four are all in playoff contention.
26. Buffalo Bills [26] — Lead the NFL in interceptions (26) and opponents' passer rating (59.7), but they're 5-9 because of their terrible offense, ranked 30th in the league. The Bills have scored more than 20 points only once in the last three months, when they intercepted Miami four times.
27. Seattle Seahawks [24] — You know how above-average quarterbacks eventually make the transition to "wily veteran backup?" Matt Hasselbeck is at that point in his career.
28. Chicago Bears [25] — If you don't count a win over the awful 1-13 Rams, Chicago has lost its last six games against real teams. If you don't count the 3-11 Browns, the streak is eight. If you also discount the hopeless 2-12 Lions, misleadingly 5-9 Seahawks, and 3-6 non-Polamalu Steelers, then the Bears haven't actually won a game all season. With Ryan Leaf at quarterback, it's understandable. As bad as he's been before this, Sunday was actually Jay Cutler's worst game of the season. Chicago's only points came on a punt return.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — There was a defense sighting in Seattle this weekend. I think the game said more about the Seahawks than the Bucs, but it was a nice win for a team enduring its worst season since the '80s.
30. Detroit Lions [30] — Their opponents have scored 437 points this season, by far the worst in the league (Chiefs, 383). Detroit won't break the record (533, 1981 Colts), but it has a chance for third-worst (501, 1966 Giants) and is on pace for fourth-worst (487, 1980 Saints). Second-worst was last year's Lions (517). This is a historically bad defense.
31. St. Louis Rams [32] — Steven Jackson led the team in rushing and receiving this week. It's hard not to wonder what he could do on a better team.
32. Kansas City Chiefs [28] — Beat Pittsburgh the week before Thanksgiving. Since then, they've gotten humiliated by a pair of division rivals (43-14 and 44-13) and lost to two of the worst teams in the league (Buffalo and Cleveland). No one has played worse in the last month.
Leave a Comment