Week 6 of the 2014 college football season was as memorable as any. Late on Thursday night, Oregon was stunned by Arizona for the second straight year, this time at Autzen Stadium. When the slate of Saturday games began, Mississippi State jumped on Texas A&M in Starkville, and by 8 PM EST, Nos. 2, 3, 4, and 6 in the AP poll had all lost their first games of the season.
Outside of the very top of the charts, there was Notre Dame's win on 4th and 11 against Stanford, Arizona State's Hail Mary win over Southern Cal, Michigan State's near-collapse versus Nebraska, and UCLA falling to Utah at home. If you haven't realized it by now, the frantic chase to the first College Football Playoff is officially on.
While brevity is the order of the day in the college football season compared to any other major American sport, the concentration of ranked teams in the top five conferences coupled with the inevitable losses to be had inside the rankings means there's ample opportunity for upward mobility by the time the selection committee makes its decisions.
Last season, after Week 6, 4-1 Auburn was unranked, even after a win against then-No. 24 Ole Miss. Three subsequent wins against top 10 opposition made it impossible to ignore the Tigers for the final BCS title game. That exact type of rise may not happen this season, but including four teams instead of two certainly makes it more of a possibility. Here are three teams, all with one or more losses, that could be this year's Auburn.
Louisville
This is probably a long shot, but all the variables are in place for the Cardinals, even after last year was supposed to be their year to make the loudest national noise. Louisville lost to better-than-expected Virginia early, but has taken care of business against mediocre-to-bad teams behind a stout defense in Bobby Petrino's first year back.
A huge test awaits next week at Clemson, but should the Cardinals win that game, explosive senior receiver DeVante Parker should be back from a preseason foot injury by the time Louisville hosts Florida State on Oct. 30. While Louisville is still in the "others receiving votes" muck among pollsters, computer metrics like F/+ and Sagarin view them as a more formidable side.
Ohio State
After the Buckeyes' disappointing fall to now-disappointing Virginia Tech at home, Ohio State was generally left for dead. Since that game, they've looked considerably more like an Urban Meyer team. The press box is still trying to add up all the first downs the Buckeyes collected against preseason AAC favorite Cincinnati on Sept. 27.
While the Big 10 is down yet again, Ohio State can prove itself over the next month with road tests at Penn State and Michigan State. As the only team considered elite in the conference, Michigan State's offense is certainly improved from this time a year ago, but as evidenced by the Oregon and Nebraska games, the Spartans are giving up second-half points that just weren't conceded last year.
Ohio State, should it finish the season 11-1, would have to get past the Big 10 Championship Game hurdle it so infamously stumbled at last season. However, the Big Ten West looks to be about as much of a mess as the SEC East. The winner of the Ohio State/Michigan State game on Nov. 8 should be the conference champion.
Stanford
This isn't a team that is really inspiring confidence in anyone right now. The offense can't finish drives, Kevin Hogan has been a mess at times, and there's no one in the backfield that can hold a candle to 2013 Tyler Gaffney or 2012 Stepfan Taylor. The schedule is insane, with road games at Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA all to come.
So why are they on this list? Because someone has to win the Pac-12, and because the Cardinal's defense may still be the best in the country. Also, look at how the dynamics of the playoff are shaking out for the SEC West, Big 12 and Pac-12.
The SEC West is probably the strongest conference division of all-time. The top five teams in the Big 12 all look pretty strong, and any team in the Pac-12 except for Colorado looks like it could beat any other team in any given week, and Arizona is the only unbeaten. Of those two-and-a-half conferences, it might be likely that no one finishes with less than two losses. It's also probable that those conferences will produce a couple of playoff teams.
Stanford's defense has already played three teams among the top 30 to 35 in the country. It's only giving up 8.6 points per game and 107.4 passing yards per contest. If the offense can just marginally improve or merely finish a couple more drives with points, the Cardinal will start winning the big games. Like Louisville, the advanced metrics love Stanford. Plus, of the three quality teams that Stanford would have to beat on the road to finish 10-2 and win the Pac-12 North, all have lost at home.
In this first year of the College Football Playoff era, it looks like the sport has its wildest season in progress since 2007. That year, two-loss LSU defeated then-one-loss Ohio State in the BCS title game, and teams like South Florida, Boston College, Kansas, West Virginia, Missouri, and Cal all spent time in the top three of the polls. If this season continues to be like that one, teams like the ones above shouldn't be counted out at all.
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