Who Can Take Down Kentucky?

It's now official.

After going through a regular season and conference tournament 34-0, and in dominant fashion with only a few close calls, the Kentucky Wildcats will attempt to become the first 40-0 team in the history of college basketball over the next three weeks during the NCAA tournament.

I'm not sure I can ever remember a more prohibitive favorite for the national title.

In 1991, before undefeated UNLV lost in the Final Four to Duke, I was only 3-years-old.

In 1996, Rick Pitino, Antoine Walker and Tony Delk's Kentucky had a formidable adversary in John Calipari's UMass, who had already beaten Kentucky at the beginning of that season. Michigan State and UConn were always going to be tough for Duke in the top-heavy 1999 season. 2007 Florida had five losses, and 2009 North Carolina had four.

Perhaps the best parallel for 2015 Kentucky is 1992 Duke, who, like the Wildcats, went wire-to-wire atop the polls from November to Selection Sunday. But even the Blue Devils that year lost to unranked, NCAA tournament 9 seed Wake Forest.

We're looking at the greatest pre-tournament juggernaut since that 1991 Runnin' Rebels team in this year's Wildcats. They're likely going to win the title. However, there are a couple teams that legitimately can give them a run for their money, and possibly pull off the unthinkable.

But first, let's look at some teams that have been talked about as contenders for the title that won't beat Kentucky.

Virginia will not beat Kentucky. At first glance, it would seem that the Cavaliers could stifle Kentucky's offense, pack the defense in, and dare Kentucky to beat them from outside.

But Virginia's frontline won't be able to compete with the combination of size and athleticism for a full 40 minutes, or score enough points to beat the Wildcats. With UVA's Justin Anderson at full strength, it could have been a longer discussion, but he's clearly not back to himself after missing time with a broken finger and appendectomy.

Duke will not beat Kentucky. All season, national media has presented the case that the Blue Devils are the pre-eminent challenger to the Wildcats' undefeated season. After all, they have the most skilled offensive big man in college basketball in a generation in Jahlil Okafor, and a scary starting backcourt of Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook.

Kentucky's depth would absolutely wear Duke, they of only eight scholarship players, out. Notre Dame showed on Friday that a solid strategy against the Blue Devils is to guard Okafor one-on-one and make sure the perimeter players don't drill threes all night.

With Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson and Trey Lyles all more than capable interior defenders on big men, even the "let Okafor get his" assumption is hardly a given. There's also the issue of Duke's iffy-at-times defense.

Villanova? Not enough size or rebounding besides Daniel Ochefu, and they're probably too reliant on three-pointers. Gonzaga, as usual, should be doubted due to their recent tournament history and in-conference competition. The 'Zags also played one game against elite competition this season (at Arizona), and it happened to be one of their worst offensive outputs of the year.

Kansas is too inconsistent, and Iowa State and Notre Dame still don't play defense or rebound well enough to win a title, despite what people might want you to believe after Championship Week. Other teams I haven't mentioned at or below the No. 3 seed line frankly don't have the horses to compete with Kentucky.

Wisconsin, with basically the same team back that should have beaten Kentucky in last year's Final Four, has a chance to redeem itself this year.

If this edition of Bo Ryan's Badgers has seemed like his very best offensive team yet, that's because it has been. But it's still the same philosophy for Wisconsin: Crisp half-court offense without turnovers, and strong defense without fouling or gambling for steals or blocks. But this year, the offensive genius and versatility of Frank Kaminsky gives Wisconsin a trump card over anything Kentucky can offer on its offensive end.

There just aren't a lot of vulnerabilities you can exploit in Kentucky's game. But to have a chance, you need to limit them to one shot on offense, take your opportunities on offense when presented with them, and force them into long twos/three-pointers, if possible.

Even then, the Wildcats still might win. But we know that Wisconsin is great on the defensive glass, and won't rush with the ball. And if Traevon Jackson returns for the Badgers, as expected, that gives Wisconsin much-needed backcourt depth.

However, the team with the best chance to beat Kentucky is Arizona. Tucson's Wildcats are nearly Kentucky's equal in athleticism, and we're just about the best at everything you could ask for in the Pac-12. Their defense hasn't had a game allowing over a point per possession in nearly six weeks, a mind-boggling statistic, even in this defense-first era of college basketball.

You want a team that will keep Kentucky off the offensive glass? No one in the country cleans the defensive boards like Arizona. Freshman Stanley Johnson has looked more and more comfortable offensively as the season has gone on, and point guard T.J. McConnell has the perfect temperament and leadership skills to face Kentucky.

Brandon Ashley, Kaleb "Zeus" Tarczewski and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, while not as big and strong as Kentucky's frontcourt (who is?), are all efficient on offense, and can all hold their own on defense. While Arizona's style is about the antithesis of a “live by the three” philosophy, Gabe York knocks down nearly 40 percent of his long-range shots to keep defenses honest.

Of course, Kentucky can't play both teams, as Arizona and Wisconsin look to meet in a West Regional final, as they did in 2014. This helps Kentucky out just a little bit more, as if they needed it.

It's been a pretty lackluster season for college basketball thus far. But with Kentucky's quest at 40-0 in the balance, and every team trying to shock the world by beating the Wildcats, the NCAA tournament will be nothing if not compelling. The drama will further ratchet up if Kentucky matches up with Wisconsin or Arizona in the Final Four.

Comments and Conversation

March 16, 2015

opheila:

If they stay focused and don’t get cocky and play a full game from start to finish they should win but we have seen them start slow and have to fight to win and this is a win or go home situation so start to finish. #bbn

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