Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two picks in last weekend's NFL draft. No one knows yet how well they'll transition to the NFL, but who are the quarterbacks they'll be compared to?
Two years ago, I looked at the best young QBs in the NFL, and I'm taking the same approach now, considering both age and experience. This time around, I've rated a group of 17 players who meet all of three conditions:
1. At least 50 pass attempts in 2014
2. At least 200 career pass attempts
3. Combined age (as of May 1, 2015) + years of experience less than or equal to 30
Thus, we're not including guys like Johnny Manziel, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Ryan Mallett, because we just haven't seen enough of them in the NFL to really evaluate those guys. And we're not looking at established 30-and-under QBs like Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. Those guys are known quantities, and we're really looking at players who are still prospects. The most notable omission might be Blaine Gabbert. He's still just 25, but he only threw 7 passes in 2014, and I don't think he's really a "prospect" any longer.
All stats show combined passing, rushing, and sacks, except NY/A, net yards per attempt, which includes passing and sacks but excludes rushing. Turnovers include interceptions and lost fumbles.
17. Ryan Lindley
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 516 yards, 5.2 NY/A, 56.8 rating, 2 TDs, 4 turnovers
Career Stats: 1,184 yards, 4.2 NY/A, 50.3 rating, 2 TDs, 13 turnovers
Lindley's stats don't include the playoff loss to Carolina, in which his 32 dropbacks produced 51 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Rodney Harrison called Lindley "a third-string quarterback who looked scared to death back there." The team set a postseason record for fewest yards of offense (78).
The 2014 Cardinals went 6-0 with Carson Palmer, 5-3 with Drew Stanton, and 0-3 with Lindley. He was even worse in 2012, when he averaged 3.6 NY/A, with no touchdowns and 9 turnovers. I'd be surprised if he's on an NFL roster in 2015.
16. Case Keenum
Age: 27; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 455 yards, 5.3 NY/A, 72.2 rating, 2 TDs, 3 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,957 yards, 5.6 NY/A, 76.8 rating, 12 TDs, 11 turnovers
Without trying to be mean to Ryan Lindley, there's a big gap between him and the rest of the list. Keenum is closer to #10 than to #17. But he's had a shot with two teams (Houston and St. Louis), and neither one sees him as more than a third-stringer or an emergency backup. He's gone back and forth between the two teams, most recently when the Rams traded a 7th-round draft pick to obtain him. Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian was a 7th-round selection last weekend, implying that Keenum and Siemian are equally valuable.
Keenum hasn't generated a lot of positive plays, and he's the oldest player on this list, so you wouldn't project a lot of development in his future. Most quarterbacks who are going to be good show it before they turn 27.
15. Austin Davis
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,858 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 85.1 rating, 12 TDs, 12 turnovers
Career Stats: 1,858 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 85.1 rating, 12 TDs, 12 turnovers
Like Keenum, he's competing for a backup spot with the Rams in 2015. St. Louis tendered Davis — a restricted free agent — at the lowest level after last season, meaning it wouldn't have required a draft pick for another team to sign him. Davis has spunk, but his decision-making last season was not NFL-level, and he was benched halfway through the season for Shaun Hill. Davis is probably good enough to hang around the league as a backup, but I'd be surprised if he's ever a regular starter again.
14. Blake Bortles
Age: 23; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 2,982 yards, 4.8 NY/A, 69.5 rating, 11 TDs, 18 turnovers
No quarterback has succeeded in the Jaguars' system since David Garrard in 2010. It's hard to evaluate Bortles: did he play poorly as a rookie because he's a poor player, or because he was in a bad situation? Most likely, it's a little of both. We'll know a lot more about Bortles 12 months from now, when he's had a second season, and one in which the team has moved further in its rebuilding process.
One of Bortles' problems in 2014 was the pick-six: he had four interceptions returned for touchdowns, tied for the worst in the NFL. This is especially worrisome in combination with another problem: Bortles wasn't just inaccurate, he was inaccurate on short passes. An interception 40 yards downfield isn't good, but it's seldom a game-losing play. An INT at the line of scrimmage, returned to the end zone, is much harder to overcome — and that's what Bortles was doing. His 4.8 NY/A was the lowest of any QB last season, as was his 24.9% first down percentage. I believe the Jaguars' front office reached for a local player and QB, then the coaches compounded that mistake by playing Bortles before he was ready. Some of his weaknesses can be resolved with experience.
13. Derek Carr
Age: 24; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 3,213 yards, 5.0 NY/A, 76.6 rating, 21 TDs, 16 turnovers
As a rookie, Derek Carr did a good job of avoiding negative plays. He had by far the lowest interception percentage among rookie quarterbacks (2.0%), and his sack percentage was among the best in the league, rookie or otherwise (3.9%). Those are rare qualities in a rookie, and they suggest a very good player.
But Carr wasn't very good in 2014, for a simple reason: he didn't do anything positive. It isn't enough to avoid negative plays, you have to generate some offense. Carr didn't take any chances downfield, and it just killed the Raiders offense. Lowest yards per completion, 2014 season, min. 1,000 passing yards:
35. Kyle Orton, 10.5
36. Blake Bortles, 10.4
37. Ryan Tannehill, 10.3
38. Jay Cutler, 10.3
39. Derek Carr, 9.4
Maybe Amari Cooper will help, but I don't think this is just about the receivers. A poor downfield passer can improve his accuracy and decision-making, but checkdown passers don't transform into mad bombers.
12. Geno Smith
Age: 24; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 2,588 yards, 5.9 NY/A, 77.5 rating, 14 TDs, 16 turnovers
Career Stats: 5,685 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 71.5 rating, 32 TDs, 41 turnovers
I suppose most fans think Geno should rank lower than this, near the worst on the list. I understand that. I think he'll be done as a starter within the next two years.
But I'm not sure Geno's gotten a fair chance. He played badly his first two seasons, but he wasn't horrific — and he had an excuse: the Jets' offense was terrible. They didn't have a dynamic running game, their receivers were subpar, and the coaching staff never showed that it could put together a competent offense. The Jets' passing game was bad in the Mark Sanchez years, and it was bad when Michael Vick replaced Smith.
Sanchez and Vick both played reasonably well on other teams, but failed with the Jets. At a certain point, this looks like an organizational problem. So while I don't believe in Geno, I'm not convinced that his struggles are entirely his fault, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he becomes an asset in the future.
11. E.J. Manuel
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 846 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 80.3 rating, 6 TDs, 3 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,845 yards, 5.5 NY/A, 78.5 rating, 19 TDs, 15 turnovers
Typing up Manuel's 2014 stats for this piece, I was startled to find that he created twice as many TDs as turnovers. Manuel went 2-2 as starter in 2014, and when the Bills replaced him in the starting lineup, it wasn't an especially big deal. Obviously you're never going to get excited about Kyle Orton — he's fine, you can win with him, but he's never going to be Peyton Manning — but it's not like Manuel was a disaster.
I think teams got overconfident about young QBs right around the time Manuel was drafted. Cam Newton and Andy Dalton were immediately successful in 2011, then Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck were even better in 2012. When Manuel was the first QB drafted in 2013, people expected him to play like a Pro Bowler. That's not how the league typically works: Newton and Griffin and Wilson were exceptional, and we shouldn't dismiss players like EJ Manuel and Geno Smith just because they haven't become all-stars yet. Manuel is a gifted athlete, but he was seen as somewhat of a project when he was drafted. You don't give up on that kind of player after 14 games.
10. Kirk Cousins
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,660 yards, 7.7 NY/A, 86.4 rating, 10 TDs, 11 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,086 yards, 6.9 NY/A, 77.5 rating, 18 TDs, 23 turnovers
I can't see Cousins ever being a regular starter in the NFL, but he looks like a quality backup, and I wouldn't be surprised if he sustains a 10-year career in that role. Cousins had the highest NY/A in the NFL last year (min. 100 att.), even higher than Aaron Rodgers, but he also had a horrific turnover problem. Maybe it was the pressure of an unofficial audition to replace Robert Griffin III, and Cousins tried to do too much, but he made some really poor decisions in 2014. He went 1-4 as starter, after an 0-3 starting record the year before. Cousins can play, but he needs to take better care of the ball.
9. Zach Mettenberger
Age: 23; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 1,278 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 83.4 rating, 8 TDs, 9 turnovers
Similar profile to Cousins: Mettenberger can play in the NFL, but he looks more like a backup than a starter. Obviously the Titans feel that way, since they drafted Mariota 2nd overall. Mettenberger didn't noticeably outplay Charlie Whitehurst last year, his biggest problem being a high turnover rate. That's normal, and fixable, for rookie quarterbacks. Mettenberger was a sixth-round draft choice, and Tom Brady notwithstanding, those guys seldom become star QBs. But Mettenberger has some moxie, and enough skills, that I expect him to stick around the league. Tennessee's receiving corps was pretty barren in 2014, and I'd be interested to see what Mettenberger can do with more talent around him.
8. Mike Glennon
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 1,375 yards, 6.1 NY/A, 83.3 rating, 10 TDs, 6 turnovers
Career Stats: 3,706 yards, 5.4 NY/A, 83.7 rating, 29 TDs, 19 turnovers
Glennon is a young player who's had some early success. He beat out Josh Freeman in 2013, and he outplayed Josh McCown in 2014. What are the odds that Jameis Winston will have a better career than Glennon? Winston is more likely, far more likely, to become a big star. But I think Glennon is more likely to still be in the NFL in 2025. His ceiling probably isn't as high as some of the players ranked below this, but there will always be a place in the league for guys who throw touchdowns and avoid interceptions.
7. Robert Griffin III
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,643 yards, 5.9 NY/A, 86.9 rating, 5 TDs, 10 turnovers
Career Stats: 8,859 yards, 6.3 NY/A, 90.6 rating, 48 TDs, 33 turnovers
Griffin has not played well the last two seasons. He's tentative and indecisive, looks like he's overthinking and trying too hard not to make a mistake. He's not seeing the field well — actually, I'm not sure he can see over the linemen — and he's too willing to take sacks. He doesn't move well within the pocket, and he's waiting for contact before trying to escape and roll outside. It's a bad scene, and he seems to be regressing. But I can't forget the incredible Robert Griffin we saw in 2012. As a reminder, here's what I wrote two years ago:
None of us know how Griffin will look when he returns from knee surgery. Maybe he'll never be the same player, a modern Greg Cook, a one-year wonder, a what-if story. But based on what he accomplished as a rookie, Robert Griffin III tops the list of the best young QBs in the NFL.
As a passer, Griffin threw four times as many TDs (20) as interceptions (5), broke the rookie record for passer rating, and led all qualified passers in yards per attempt (8.14). As a runner, he ranked in the top 20 in the NFL in rushing yards (815) and TDs (7). He passed for a higher rating than Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. He rushed for more yards than Michael Turner or DeAngelo Williams. His interception percentage (1.3%) was the best in the NFL, tied with Brady, and another rookie record, shattering the mark set by Charlie Batch in 1998 (2.0%). Griffin rushed for more TDs than Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, or Matt Forte.
Keep in mind that Griffin did this with a receiving corps led by Pierre Garçon, 33-year-old Santana Moss, and someone named Leonard Hankerson. You might also remember that injuries (knee and head) caused Griffin to miss part or all of three games, and he basically put up all those numbers in a 14-game season. Simply as a football fan, I hope RG3 comes back healthy. The game is more interesting with him in it.
6. Nick Foles
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 2,157 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 81.4 rating, 13 TDs, 13 turnovers
Career Stats: 6,706 yards, 6.7 NY/A, 94.2 rating, 50 TDs, 25 turnovers
Foles followed his brilliant 2013 (27 TD, 2 INT, 119.2 passer rating) with an okay 2014, in which it wasn't obvious whether or not he outplayed Mark Sanchez. In the offseason, he was traded for Sam Bradford, with the Eagles throwing in a little extra to obtain the former number one pick.
But Russell Wilson and Foles are the only players on this list with twice as many TDs as turnovers. Here you've got a 26-year-old who's proven he can play in the NFL, and that he probably should be a starter. What's set Foles apart so far is his decision-making: he doesn't make a lot of negative plays. His first two seasons, Foles threw remarkably few interceptions. In 2014, he took a very low number of sacks. If Foles can bring those skills together — and that will probably be harder in St. Louis than Philadelphia — he'll be a Pro Bowler.
5. Ryan Tannehill
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,019 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 92.8 rating, 28 TDs, 14 turnovers
Career Stats: 11,042 yards, 6.0 NY/A, 84.0 rating, 67 TDs, 53 turnovers
Tannehill is making progress. He's gotten a little better every year, overcoming questionable support from his offensive line and receiving corps. The good news is, the team is serious about providing Tannehill with some weapons. The Mike Wallace experiment didn't work out, so this year, Brian Hartline and Wallace are gone, replaced by Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, and first-round draft pick DeVante Parker, who join Jarvis Landry, coming off a productive rookie season. Tight end Charles Clay is gone, replaced by former Browns TE Jordan Cameron. There may be an adjustment period for the new personnel, but the players are there. Tannehill is a great athlete, a good runner with a strong arm. He's already an average QB, and the bet here is that his best seasons are still ahead of him.
The concern with Tannehill has always been his reluctance to throw downfield. I don't know how much of this is coaching, how much is his WR group, and how much is the quarterback, but at some point, he's got to open things up vertically. Make that step, and he could be a special player. Don't make that step, and he could be Alex Smith.
4. Teddy Bridgewater
Age: 22; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 2,879 yards, 6.1 NY/A, 85.2 rating, 15 TDs, 12 turnovers
Of all the rookie QBs in 2014, Teddy Bridgewater showed the most promise. He produced yardage, he ran effectively, he didn't turn the ball over a lot. The Vikings have spent years struggling in search of effective quarterback play, partly due to the failings of their receiving corps. Last season, with Adrian Peterson unexpectedly absent, Bridgewater managed the offense — not in a way that will make anyone forget Fran Tarkenton, or even Daunte Culpepper — but in a way that bodes well for his future.
I don't see an Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson in Bridgewater, but Viking fans have reason for optimism.
3. Cam Newton
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 4.
2014 stats: 3,366 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 82.1 rating, 23 TDs, 17 turnovers
Career Stats: 15,857 yards, 6.4 NY/A, 85.4 rating, 115 TDs, 65 turnovers
Newton battled injury through most of the 2014 season, leading to career lows in most major statistics. He also worked with a rebuilding receiving corps, with work-in-progress rookie Kelvin Benjamin but without reliable veteran Steve Smith. The Panthers had the worst offense in the NFL before drafting Newton: they were 32nd in yards, and 32nd in points. They've never given their young QB a lot of weapons (though perhaps that will change in 2015, with Devin Funchess and Benjamin). And yet, every year of his career — including his injury-shortened 2014 — Newton has passed for over 3,000 yards and rushed for over 500 more. Every year, he has thrown more TDs than INTs, with a passer rating over 80.
Carolina has won back-to-back division titles, the first team ever to do so in the NFC South, and last season, the Panthers won a playoff game for the first time since the 2005 season. People criticize Newton because he's the face of the read option movement, because he's a black quarterback and that still bothers some people, and because sometimes he's weird in press conferences. He's a hell of a player.
2. Russell Wilson
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,082 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 95.0 rating, 26 TDs, 7 turnovers
Career Stats: 11,110 yards, 6.7 NY/A, 98.6 rating, 83 TDs, 34 turnovers
The lack of respect for Wilson, among casual fans, is stunning. Other than being short, Wilson checks all the boxes. He's a great athlete, he's smart, he's good with the press and the public, he's an asset in the locker room. He's never missed the playoffs, he won a Super Bowl ring, and he's the first QB in a decade to appear in back-to-back Super Bowls. In 2014, he ranked among the NFL's top 10 in both net yardage and passer rating. And he did that with a receiving corps led by Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse.
What could he do with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, or Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate? Would he be unstoppable in a dome? How much better will he be with a little more experience? Wilson is a great player, and I don't know how anyone misses that. I did see Wilson appear to lose focus sometimes last season, making uncharacteristic mistakes, but I suspect that will happen less often with maturity and experience. I've written more than once that I believe Wilson, barring a career-altering injury, will be a Hall of Famer.
1. Andrew Luck
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,873 yards, 7.2 NY/A, 96.5 rating, 43 TDs, 22 turnovers
Career Stats: 13,228 yards, 6.4 NY/A, 86.6 rating, 98 TDs, 56 turnovers
Andrew Luck was okay as a rookie in 2012. He was good the next year, and he was great in 2014. He's improving, quickly and dramatically. Everything you want a quarterback to do well, he does well. He's not the runner Wilson and Newton are, but Luck can run: he averages 300 yards and 4 TDs per season. Luck is very bright, and he appears totally dedicated to becoming the best quarterback in the NFL. He has all the physical tools — big, athletic, strong arm — and he seems capable of eliminating every weakness from his game. In 2014, Luck set career bests for passing yards, TDs, TD/INT +/-, completion percentage, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, TD%, passer rating, and sack percentage.
He's still a little wild sometimes, so he'll need to cut down on turnover rate, and he didn't play well in December and January. That could be a health issue, or cold weather, or something else. He set a career-high in fumbles, so that's an area to correct. And the thing is, I'm confident he will. I see a lot of parallels between Luck and the man he replaced in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning. Luck is a big-play QB, and as he learns more about NFL defenses and develops relationships with his receivers, he'll probably become the best QB in the game.
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I have no interest in writing about DeflateGate, because it's a stupid scandal. Tom Brady's four-game suspension is totally consistent with Roger Goodell's approach to discipline: it's based on evidence that doesn't meet legal or scientific standards, aimed at a high-profile scapegoat, and designed to placate public opinion, not to improve the game.
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