The 49ers have handled Aldon Smith's latest drama in the best possible way. But his release, at the end of last week, is another significant loss for a team that's already had the roughest offseason in the National Football League.
San Francisco was a dynasty in the '80s and '90s. The 49ers won double-digit games every year from 1983-98, with five Super Bowl victories. Since then, and especially since firing head coach Steve Mariucci after the 2002 season, the franchise has struggled. From 2003-10, the team went 46-82 (.359), with no winning seasons, no playoff appearances, and five head coaches. When the Niners hired Jim Harbaugh in 2011, they turned around immediately.
The 49ers went 13-3 in Harbaugh's first season, their best record in 17 years. In Harbaugh's first three seasons, San Francisco went 36-11-1, made the NFC Championship Game every year, and reached Super Bowl XLVII. Following an 8-8 record last year, the 49ers showed Harbaugh the door, reportedly because of personality conflicts. Harbaugh will coach at the University of Michigan in 2015.
Losing Harbaugh might not feel so devastating if the rest of the team he built remained intact. The 49ers know this better than anyone; when Bill Walsh retired after winning his third Super Bowl, George Seifert took over and the team didn't miss a beat: Seifert went 108-35 (.755) and won two Super Bowls of his own, including the 1989 season, his first year replacing Walsh. This version of the Niners simply doesn't have that continuity in place.
Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula was promoted to fill Harbaugh's position, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman left for Buffalo, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio departed for Chicago. That is not a seamless transition. But even more worrisome than the coaching overhaul is the mass exodus of players, including some of the team's most prominent starters.
Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, and Chris Borland all retired in recent months. Smith was a 14-year veteran, but still a very good player, and healthy: he's only missed three games in his career, none in 2013 or 2014. Willis was coming off the first serious injury of his career (a strained toe that required surgery), but he's only 30, and retiring after only eight seasons could keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Borland was the most shocking of all: a rookie, 24 years old, and coming off a brilliant debut season, in which he led the team in tackles and finished fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. Borland left the sport preemptively, due to concern about the long-term health effects of playing football, and head injuries in particular.
The 49ers also suffered major losses in free agency. Leading rusher Frank Gore, coming off his fourth consecutive 1,100-yard season, is gone. So is Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati, who left for the division rival Arizona Cardinals. Three of the top four receivers are gone (Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd), while the fourth (Anquan Boldin) is about to turn 35. Both starting cornerbacks left, starting linebacker Dan Skuta signed with the Jaguars, and now Aldon Smith has been cut.
Smith had a sensational rookie season in 2011, with 14 sacks, and he placed second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, despite a part-time role in which he never started a game. Smith was even better in his follow-up campaign, with 19.5 sacks. San Francisco reached the Super Bowl and Smith was named team MVP. He played well again in 2013, but also spent five weeks in rehab following an arrest for driving under the influence and possession of marijuana. Further substance-abuse issues cost Smith nine games in 2014, and last week, he was arrested for a hit-and-run, also his third DUI.
The 49ers handled the incident with grace: they terminated Smith's contract, but treated his addiction with compassion, and the team statement focused on their positive wishes for Smith, rather than blaming Smith or kicking him while he's down. But that's four linebackers the Niners have lost this offseason: Willis, Borland, Skuta, and Smith. NaVorro Bowman missed the entire 2014 season with torn knee ligaments, and there were major character concerns about Ahmad Brooks last season: there were reports that Brooks took himself out of a game to pout about playing time, and he was later suspended one game for missing a meeting. In less than the 12 months, the best linebacking corps in the NFL has become a potential weakness.
It's a disturbing amount of turnover for a talented and successful team, and there has been little progress filling the gaps. Veteran RB Reggie Bush replaces Gore, and Torrey Smith for Crabtree could be a fairly neutral trade-off. But those holes on defense are troubling, and San Francisco's strange draft did little to assuage concern: the 49ers didn't draft an inside linebacker or a cornerback. Combine the loss of so many impact players — and locker room leaders like Gore, Willis, and Justin Smith — with the controversy and instability surrounding the coaching staff, and we're probably looking at a major setback for a team that had settled in as one of the NFL's best in recent years.
The 49ers will have better luck with injuries in 2015 than they did last season, and perhaps Colin Kaepernick will regain some of the form he showed in 2012 and '13. But I'd be surprised if the Niners win half their games this season; I think they'll finish last in the NFC West.
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