In the modern NFL, it's common that, of the 12 teams that made the previous season's playoffs, about four to six of them won't play from the second weekend of January onwards the next year.
There's a variety of common reasons for that consistent change in competitive teams, with a hard salary cap and a more difficult schedule for teams topping the standings being the main ones. And sometimes, a traditional contender may have had a down year that allowed a team to take its usual spot in the postseason.
For this season, teams like New England (despite Tom Brady's suspension), Pittsburgh, Seattle, Green Bay, Arizona, and Carolina appear to be in the strongest position to return to the playoffs, with defending champions Denver, Kansas City and Cincinnati also returning potentially strong teams.
However, the odds say that one of this group won't make a return, and as many as three or four could be starting their offseason early.
Let's take a look at five teams, all of whom finished at .500 or below last year, that could make the leap in 2016 into the playoffs.
Oakland Raiders
There are kids who will be entering the eighth grade this year who have literally never been alive for an Oakland Raiders playoff game. Somehow, the silver and black have gone 14 seasons without being one of the top teams in the AFC, and have only reached 8-8 twice in that span.
But for the first time since the great Raiders teams of the early 2000s, the Raiders are actually trending upwards and in a very sustainable direction. Derek Carr is a budding star at quarterback, and Khalil Mack might be as good as any defensive player in the league. Their offseason was a great success, and focused on filling needs with solid players.
The defense looks especially strong, and there are playmakers like Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree for Carr to throw to on offense. After Kansas City dominated the final three months of its season, the AFC West looks a lot stronger coming into this season, but Oakland will still have a third-place schedule to lean on.
Indianapolis Colts
It's odd to think about how the Colts managed to salvage an 8-8 season that was just a game out of the division lead out of a season where they got next to nothing out of an injured Andrew Luck before he was shelved midway through 2015. Indy also got disappointing seasons out of veteran pickups. Those pickups were a big reason many were picking them as a Super Bowl contender exactly one year ago.
It doesn't look like a roster that can do anything beyond win an AFC South that's probably the weakest division in football. But it still had the basic NFL talent to go .500, with a 6-3 record in games Luck didn't start.
It bears repeating: when Luck was healthy his first three seasons, the Colts went 11-5 all three years, averaged a playoff win a year, and Luck averaged 270 each week, a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a QB rating of 87.
Baltimore Ravens
This may be the diciest pick of the bunch in this article, as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both look especially strong again in the AFC North, and getting three teams from one division into the playoffs is fairly rare in the eight-division NFL. But Baltimore had absurdly bad injury luck in 2015 coming off a 2014 season where it nearly beat the eventual Super Bowl winners in the playoffs.
The roster in some key areas is pretty old, but it's one that's performed well before, and has done so for an organization that simply doesn't have extended downturns and runs of losing seasons. A bad secondary in 2015 will almost certainly be improved with the addition of longtime Charger Eric Weddle. The offense has question marks, but a solid line should help.
New York Giants
Somehow, in the NFC East, often-maligned Washington has won the division twice since the Giants last appeared in a playoff game, its Super Bowl XLVI win over New England in 2012. Yet, it doesn't feel like the Giants have really been truly bad the past four seasons. They have had some dumb injury luck, and have given away games they had absolutely no business losing, but the team always had talent and potential.
And this spring, the Giants broke out the checkbook in a big way to improve a defense that couldn't stop anybody in 2015, adding end Olivier Vernon and tackle Damon Harrison to the defensive front and corner Janoris Jenkins to the secondary. And first-round pick Eli Apple should help as an additional piece in a pass defense that gave up a league-worst 4,783 yards last year.
The Giants' offense was quite good a year ago, and Odell Beckham is perhaps the most explosive weapon in the game. If the defense can go up to even 20th in the league as opposed to 32nd, it could be enough for the Giants to win the division.
Dallas Cowboys
This feels like a team that you'd like to bet the over on in all of its games in 2016. If Tony Romo is effective after returning from his injuries of last year, it's going to be an incredibly fun offense to watch. The offensive line is the best in the NFL, and the running game, even if led by a rookie in Ezekiel Elliott, should be able to rack up a couple thousand yards at least.
But Dallas' best defensive plan might just be to make sure every long drive takes about eight minutes off the clock. The secondary is a basket case, and the front seven is full of early-season suspensions and historical injury concerns. Still, it's a team that's built approximately the same way as the 2014 club that went 12-4 and should have been in the NFC title game against Seattle. You can't discount how strong the offense is, even if the defense might give up 25 points per game.
No NFL season ends up being just like the last, as far its playoff teams are concerned. These five teams that weren't in the playoffs last year have excellent chances to play into the season's last month this season.
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