Thursday, October 4, 2018
College Football Week 6 Predictions
Any time I make picks against the spread in this column, I preface it with some self-deprecating remark about how terrible of a prognosticator I am. But I will this time note that the last time I did this, I went 3-0, and I've even made a wee bit o' green myself with my picks this year. So I find myself in the unfamiliar position of being confident. Onto the picks. Home teams in bold.
Northwestern (+11.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
Perhaps the bookmakers are looking at that Northwestern loss to Akron, but they weren't outplayed in that game; they gave up three defensive touchdowns. Of course, they also had Michigan on the ropes. Michigan State, however, remains a team that squeaked by Utah State, lost to Arizona State (a loss that's looking worse every week save the last one), and did not come within shouting distance of covering against Central Michigan. Here's a little secret: the Spartans are not very good.
Kentucky (+6) over TEXAS A&M
Man, what exactly does Kentucky have to do to earn the bookmakers respect? Every week that they play an SEC foe, they're underdogs. Every week, they win comfortably outright. Every week, the bookies respond by making them underdogs again as if they're Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. It's certainly not going to be Texas A&M that stops this train; they now have the dubious distinction of struggling with a god-awful Arkansas team.
SAN JOSE STATE (+3) over Colorado State.
San Jose State: at home, took a good Hawaii team to overtime last week. Lost by just 13 points to Oregon the week before that. Is at home for this one. Colorado State: at home, lost to a good Hawaii team not in overtime. Coming off a loss to FCS Illinois State. Has only beaten a god-awful Arkansas team. Is on the road. I cannot for the life of me figure out why Colorado State is favored here.
Those are my three o-ficial picks, but here are some non-canon games I'm looking at.
Alabama failed to cover against Louisiana last week, and Arkansas is coming off their best performance of the season. So is the spread of 35.5 too low? I kind of think it is. If the game was last week instead of this one, Alabama would be favored by 200.
Staying in the SEC, again I wonder if Las Vegas is overvaluing recent results. Bully on Florida for knocking off Mississippi State in Starkville last Saturday, but I believe LSU is in a different league than Mississippi State, and am leaning in their direction as 2.5-point favorites.
The game I really took a bath on last week was Stanford/Notre Dame. Is Stanford really that bad? They beat Oregon on the road and USC, after all. They're at home against Utah and I think their line of -6 is a bit low.