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If any conference is more unpredictable than the Big 10, it's the Pac-10, where eight teams in the last 10 years have either won the conference or played in a BCS bowl. A ninth, Arizona, came very close early in that span.

This year, we will again see a change at the top, and again it will be a team that has not been there for awhile (1996, to be exact ... a lifetime ago, by Pac-10 standards).

1. Arizona State
(7-1 Pac-10, 11-1 overall)

If you haven't heard of Andrew Walter already, you will. The junior QB managed to put up nearly 3,900 yards through the air and threw almost twice as many TDs than INTs. Despite losing their leading-receiver, Shaun McDonald, Walter will still have options with speedy Daryl Lightfoot and bulky Skyler Fulton. Cornell Candidate, Trung's brother, will get the bulk of his carries and will wear down defenses with his Mike Alstott-type style.

The defense returns seven starters, including potential All-Pac-10 safety Jason Shivers, and that should take a lot of the sting out of losing Terrell Suggs. They couldn't ask for a better schedule, avoiding Washington and having USC and Oregon in Tempe.

Ah, and did we mention the punter? The Devils have the best in the Pac-10 in Tim Parker. In addition to playing well, ASU figures to look sharp, too, with modernized unis and helmets with Carolina Panther (or Virginia)-style stripes, brought out to create a buzz and excitement anew for ASU football. And what timing. Given the light non-conference schedule, a run for an undefeated season is not out of the question.

2. Oregon State (6-2, 10-2)

If you are going to turn a program around -- and few programs have been as impressive as OSU in their turnaround from doormats to contenders in recent years -- chances are, you are going to lose who pulled it off, and that's exactly what has happened in Corvallis, as Dennis Erickson quit to take over the reins of the San Francisco 49ers.

And who better to replace your head coaching hero than the guy who immediately preceded him, and recruited most of the players responsible for the Beaver turnaround, which culminated in a 41-9 thrashing of Notre Dame in the 2000 Fiesta Bowl? Hiring back Mike Riley was a stroke of genius on the part of Oregon State because he's obviously already comfortable with the program, if not the players.

Players, Riley has. Ten offensive starters return to Corvallis for a team that averaged better than 31 points per game last year. The defense, for its part, returns six and is the most athletic in the Pac-10. Keep your eye on Richard Siegler, a linebacker who had 99 tackles last year.

3. USC (6-2, 9-3)

Hello, Matt Leinart. You're a sophomore quarterback who will likely (although the competition is still on) be a starter for an elite Division I team. All you have to do is replace the Heisman Trophy-winner and probably the most valuable player to his team in the whole country last year (watch USC's games against Notre Dame and Iowa for evidence). Good luck. Oh, and you'll have no experienced running backs to hand off to, either.

It's these things that will prevent a repeat in the Pac-10 and a home date for the Trojans in the Rose Bowl. At least Leinart will have time to learn on the job -- USC has the deepest O-line in the nation, including All-American senior Jacob Rogers.

The defense is in okay shape, but returns only five starters. Linebacker Matt Grootegoed is the anchor. He had 8 sacks last year.

4. Washington (5-3, 8-4)

You may not have heard of ASU's Andrew Walter, but you have definitely heard of Cody Pickett, an early front-runner for the Heisman. Pickett was third in the country in total-offense last year, and the two guys in front of him (Byron Leftwich and Kliff Kingsbury), are gone.

Speaking of gone, Pickett will have to continue his run at the Heisman without Rick Neuheisel, whom Pickett owes a lot of credit to. It unclear how much a new coach will take off Pickett's game, but it could be a lot, especially if the talk of UW bringing a more balanced-attack on offense pan out.

And, oh yes, we get to see how much they have gelled on August 30th -- on the road at Ohio State. Ouch.

The defense should be much the same as last year: strong against the run and weak against the pass. In a pass-happy league, that's not a good thing. Expect Washington to be a disappointment this year.

5. Washington State (4-4, 7-5)

The Huskies aren't the only team in Washington to have a tough non-conference schedule, as the Cougs get to embark on the post-Jason Gesser era with back-to-back trips to South Bend and Boulder.

It could be worse for WSU, but they won't be contending for the Pac-10 titles as they have the last two years. The leading candidate to replace all-everything QB Jason Gesser is Matt Kegel, who reportedly is a practice and scrimmage beast. Will this translate into the real game? If so, expect to see a lot of "Kegel Muscles" t-shirts in the stands at Pullman.

And why not? Regardless of the coach, WSU has a quarterback history over the last 20 years to rival anyone in the country: Mark Rypien, Timm Rosenbach, Drew Bledsoe, Ryan Leaf, and now Gesser. Kegel has history on his side.

What he doesn't have is an experienced tailback -- Jermaine Green will get a lot of carries -- or a very deep line in front of him. The defense has to try to replace CB Marcus Trufant, but does return eight starters.

6. Oregon (4-4, 7-5)

When the Ducks started 6-0 last year, not only did we see them as on their way to a fabulous year, but we started to ask ourselves if Oregon, given their success in recent years, was the Pac-10's new perennial, a USC of the 2000s.

Then came the last six games, and we got our answer: no.

This is a team angry and determined to put last year's meltdown behind them and get back to the top of the Pac-10. To do that, the defense must, must, must get better against the pass. Free safety Keith Lewis will have the most to say about that. He's a great tackler, but he must make the upgrade from "good player" to "star." The other defensive back to watch is CB Steven Moore, who is lightning-quick and pulled down 5 interceptions last year.

The offense is fine, as ever. QB Jason Fife returns, and although Onterrio Smith is gone, expect big things from his replacement, Ryan Shaw, a bruiser. WR Samie Parker is a star in the making.

7. UCLA(4-4, 6-6)

Of all the recent coaching changes in the Pac-10, none was quieter that UCLA's hiring of Karl Dorrell, who as a man with no head coaching experience, may have much to be quiet about.

He's also a quiet man, in contrast to the outspoken and chatty Bob Toledo, who got thoroughly thrashed in the battle for Los Angeles college football supremacy. That just won't do, and it's why Toledo was fired.

The good news: the Bruins, with the return of DT run-stopper extraordinaire Rodney Leisle and (Street & Smith Second-Team All-American DE Dave Ball, UCLA might have the best front-four in the nation. Three quarters of the secondary is back, too.

But life will not be easy early for Dorrell, who gets his feet wet against a non-conference schedule of Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and San Diego State. In that time, he has to break in a new quarterback and two new tackles on offense. Bottom line: they ain't catching USC this year.

8. Stanford (1-7, 2-9)

Stanford seems to place great importance on selecting coaches who are already familiar with operating in an academics-first environment. How else to describe the hiring last year of Buddy Teevens, a man who has spent most of his adult life leading a very, very mediocre Dartmouth program?

Whatever. Although decimated by injuries last year, it's a fact that Teevens led Stanford straight down the toilet last year, going from a 9-2 regular season in 2001 to 2-9 last year. Not much talent -- or lack thereof -- separates the pathetic bottom three in the Pac Ten, but Stanford does have a couple of nice players, including WR Luke Powell and LB Michael Craven, so I suspect the Cardinal is a hair better than Cal and Arizona. Just a hair.

9. Arizona (2-10, 1-7)

We've been hearing from John Mackovic for a long time now. Many years in the NFL. Coach of Illinois, Texas, and Arizona. A stint in the television studio. If you are sick of him, fear not. This will be the last year we hear from John Mackovic.

It's quite surprising he didn't get sacked last year -- not many coaches can have their team revolt against them and lead their team to a last-place finish and keep their jobs, but somehow, Mackovic did. With only 13 starters returning from that 1-7 Pac-10 team, this is the year Mackovic gets the boot, and it probably won't take until the end of the season.

10. Cal (1-7, 1-11)

Pity poor Cal. I mentioned earlier eight teams in the Pac-10 either winning it or getting to a BCS bowl in the last 10 years, and Arizona was right on the cusp in their "Desert Swarm" era. Only the Golden Bears haven't been close.

Pity them further because last year, they were on probation -- and that's they year they did, by Cal standards, great things: finished with a winning-record. Introduced QB Kyle Boller and RB Joe Igber to the national consciousness. Dismantled Michigan State on national television and exposed them as frauds. Right results, wrong year.

But pity them most of all because it's not much of an overstatement to say that everybody who contributed to last year's success is gone. How many starters are returning for Cal? Are you ready for this? Eight. Six on offense (Boller and Igber not among them) and two on defense.

The only hope they have this year is if it turns out that last year's success was really due to Jeff Tedford being a coaching genius. I guess we find out if he is this year, because only a genius could recover from this personnel loss.

Stay tuned for more college football previews from Kevin Beane!

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