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College Football - Changing of the Guard: SEC Preview

By Kevin Beane
Tuesday, August 26th, 2003
Print   Recommend

Past previews: Big 10 | Pac-10 | Big 12 | ACC

Here's some trivia to impress your friendxs with: the team that returns the most starters in the SEC East is Vanderbilt, with 15. The team that returns the fewest starters in the SEC West is Arkansas and Auburn, with 16.

We're used to seeing the West representative in the SEC Championship Game come in as heavy underdogs, and they seem to just take turns lining up for slaughter to Tennessee or Florida, who, until last year, were the only teams to represent the East in the Championship game. The West, meanwhile, has sent every team except Ole Miss.

This year will be definitively different, and the great discrepancy in returning starters is just one of the reasons. The West has three stacked teams, and now it is the East that looks like a rudderless ship.

SEC East

1. Tennessee (5-3 SEC, 7-5 overall)

I would normally advise anyone to stay well away from teams with injury problems, and the Vols lost 71 games by starters to injury last year, but UT may take it just because somebody has to.

They do feature the best QB in the East this side of David Green and Jared Lorenzen in Casey Clausen, and they return over 1,300 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in Cedric Houston and Jabari Davis. The offensive line is deep and features probable All-American Michael Munoz.

The defense ... well, again, someone has to win the SEC East. But don't expect anyone to be more motivated or ready to win the SEC East than the Vols, who view last year as a big chance that got away from them.

2. Georgia (5-3, 7-5)

If Georgia has any hope of repeating this year, they will do so on the shoulders of David Greene, who we might call Craig Krenzel South. He finds ways to win. He always gets the clutch first-down, always gets that clutch completion. He has an outstanding career TD/INT ratio of 37/19. He will have to do everything this year, because the Bulldogs are returning just two other players on offense.

On defense, Georgia replaces its entire linebacking corps, but they are excited about Odell Thurman, who was a monster during spring practice, and the entire secondary comes back, including All-SEC pick Kentrell Curry.

3. Kentucky (4-4, 8-4)

"I'm 61. I feel a real sense of urgency. I'm not a patient guy anymore. I know we have to build this team and this program. But I don't have a good patience level."

So says new Wildcat coach Rich Brooks, who comes in with an impressive resume and an NFL pedigree. This statement is music to the ears of Kentucky fans and boosters, who want to see the Wildcats be competitive right away. That, obviously, is what Brooks is trying to do.

He will have a good piece to start the puzzle with in QB Jared Lorenzen (insert fat joke here), who threw 24 touchdowns last year against 5 interceptions. If he somehow improves on that statistic, you are probably looking at your SEC Player of the Year. Further helping the UK cause is returning tackle Antonio Hall and what many preseason publications call the best offensive line in the SEC East.

The defense, however, is in near shambles. Depth is scarce, it's slow as a team, and they have to adjust to new schemes. If the D doesn't come together, look for Brooks' first year at the helm to be a disappointment.

4. Florida (4-4, 7-5)

Remember when it seemed that every year Florida, Florida State, and Nebraska were the only teams with a shot to win it all?

Of course you do, but that three-headed Hydra is gone, and in its place in Gainesville is a (Steve) Spurrier-free Ron Zook. Last year's 8-5 season was a harsh one for Gator fans, although they'll always have their win over Georgia, which likely kept the Bulldogs out of the Fiesta Bowl.

This year doesn't look to me much better for the Gators, but it certainly may be worse. They have to replace their entire starting backfield, and although quarterback Ingle Martin has surprising speed for a 220-pounder, he is a few rungs down from Rex Grossman overall. The O-line returns basically intact, and they have a star in guard Shannon Snell.

Only three starters return for the defense, none on the front seven. Florida's last two recruiting classes on the defense were strong, and need to step up this year.

5. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6)

It sure looked like, for a second, that Lou Holtz was indeed going to resurrect the moribund Gamecocks program, with back-to-back New Year's Day bowl wins over Ohio State. Then, did things every get ugly quick, and how many talent miles are there between Columbus and Columbia now?

This year: more of the sad same. Defense will be key. The team the least affected by graduation was the linebacking corps, but they do have to adjust to the new 4-3 scheme being implemented. The best linebacker is not a returnee, however, it's JUCO All-American Marcus Lawrence, a super-aggressive tackler whom USC can hang their hat on. The secondary looks fine, as well.

On offense, what do TE Hart Turner and OT Travelle Wharton have in common? They're the only offensive players who can call themselves returning starters. All other positions: help wanted, apply within.

6. Vanderbilt (0-8, 2-10)

Back in the '80s, four teams stood out as the laughingstocks of college football: Kansas State, Northwestern, Oregon State, and Vanderbilt. Today, that loathsome foursome would be Baylor, Rutgers, Duke, and ... yes, Vanderbilt, they only woebegone team of the '80s to never turn it around. Won't happen this year, either.

One nice surprise for Vandy last year was the play of tailback Kwane Doster, who 798 yards as a freshman on 5 yards per carry. He has a battering ram in front of him, too, in fullback Matthew Tant.

Eight starters return on defense, and defensive linemen Jovan Haye and Aaron Carter may have NFL futures. But these are all reasons why Vanderbilt might be competitive in Conference USA, or kings of the Sun Belt. In the SEC? No dice.

SEC West

1. Arkansas (7-1 SEC, 11-1 overall)

No one predicted the Hogs to do much last year, but what did they do? They beat LSU in a wild one, thumped Auburn on the road, and won the SEC West. This year, they are again not predicted to do much by most, but dig this: the defending champs return 17 starters. They get Auburn and Florida at home, and avoid Tennessee and Georgia.

Houston Nutt is a fabulous coach who will allow no repeat of last year's lay-down against Georgia or demoralized play if they don't get into the bowl they think they deserve. You heard it here first: the Razorbacks are going to burn through the SEC, upset Texas on the road, and make a very serious run at the Sugar Bowl.

Expect the running backs to wear teams down. Cedric Cobbs (225 pounds) averaged 5.4 yards per rush last year, DeArrius Howard (227 pounds) led the rushers last year with seven touchdowns, and fullback Mark Pierce (242 pounds) scored almost every sixth time he was given the ball. Four-fifths of the offensive line return.

The Hogs boast the best linebackers (Caleb Miller, Clark Moore, and Tony Bua) this side of Auburn, as well as the best cornerbacks (Ahmad Carroll and Lawrence Jackson), along with LSU. Like every team, Arkansas has questions (the safeties, the passing game, playing for 60 minutes), but no team is in a better position to answer those questions with exclamation points.

2. Auburn (6-2, 9-3)

You can basically divide the college football pundits into two camps. The believers in Auburn, and the non-believers. Interestingly, you may call Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville one of the non-believers. "We're not good enough to be top-10 or 15 right now. We have to improve in a lot of areas to be able to do that."

Okay, he's the coach, he's supposed to say things like that. But he's right. First, they have to figure out how to get past Southern Cal at home in their opener. Then, they have to deal with the misfortune of facing the two teams most likely to compete with Auburn for the SEC West championship, Arkansas and LSU, on the road. And they also have to figure out how to put together a secondary, which looks to be ho-hum right now and needs to step up.

If you are a believer, however, you want to hear none of that. You instead want to hear how their backfield and linebacking corps is the greatest in college football history. I won't disappoint.

The best of the running backs may be neither Carnell Williams, who is coming back from injury, or Brandon Jacobs, who is new to the D1-A ranks, but Ronnie Brown. Brown needed only six games to break the 1,000-yard barrier last year, and completely out-dueled mighty Larry Johnson in the Capital One bowl. Look for Brown to be the surprise leading-rusher in this stable, although by no means should Williams or Jacobs disappoint.

The linebackers: Karlos Dansby is the star. His specialty is hunting down running backs in the backfield and slamming them for a five-yard loss. He also has pulled down a surprising amount of interceptions (8) in his career for a linebacker. Dontarrius Thomas is the workhorse, averaging almost 100 tackles per year over his career. Travis Williams is the speed-burner and disrupter.

All in all, a great team. A top-10 team. But not a champion.

3. LSU (5-3, 9-3)

If either of the teams above slip, even just a little bit, expect LSU to represent the West in the SEC Championship game. If not for a miraculous drive by Arkansas, they'd be the defending West champs this year, and they return 16 starters.

The Tigers did lose their top-two rushers from last year, but may be just as good anyway with Shyrone Carey, whom Street & Smith has called the most elusive running back in the SEC, and Joseph Addai. 2001 SEC Championship game MVP Matt Mauck will try to come all the way back from a bad foot injury from last year, but if he can't, Marcus Randall, the QB who took over when Mauck went down, is still available. Whomever lines up behind center will have the pleasure of throwing to the best wide receiver in the SEC (not saying much this year), Michael Clayton.

The defense returns seven solid starters, led by Corey Webster, who either intercepted or broke up a staggering 24 passes last year.

4. Mississippi (4-4, 8-4)

The temptation is great to type Eli Manning's name 50 times and call it a preview, but I will resist ... not that such a preview would be all that off-the-mark in analyzing Ole Miss.

The buzz is that Manning is, with each passing day, becoming more of a lock to become the first quarterback taken in 2004 NFL draft. He will be helped tremendously by receivers Chris Collins and Bill Flowers. Since the Rebel rushing attack is absolutely non-existent, Manning may challenge some SEC and maybe even NCAA total attempts and completions records.

The defense will try to build on their solid finish last year, when they gave up an average of 16 points over their last three games against LSU, Mississippi State, and Nebraska. Defensive player to watch: nose tackle Jesse Mitchell.

5. Alabama (3-5, 5-7)

With the offseasons that Ohio State and Washington had, it's a tough year to be able to say that you had the most turmoil-laden offseason, but the Tide can indeed make that claim. How well the team will come together in spite of having three head coaches in the last eight months remains to be seen, but it's hard to see how they can recover too quickly or too well. Not helping matters is a non-conference slate of game that includes Oklahoma and three of the best mid-major teams: South Florida, Northern Illinois, and Hawaii.

At least they have an outstanding offensive line, regarded by many as one of the top-five in the country, headed by junior guard Justin Smiley.

Defensively, seven starters return, including all-everything DE Antwan Odom. 'Bama does have some questions to answer in the secondary, however.

6. Mississippi State (2-6, 3-9)

With 17 starters returning, the "other" Bulldogs might be able to make a run at solidity in the SEC East, but here in the West, they are likely to be buried in the avalanche. They also have to cope with the dark cloud of NCAA investigation and a shakeup of the coaching staff.

MSU does have a nice quarterback in Kevin Fant, but he needs to cut down on his interceptions. He will be targeting receiver Ray Ray Bivines, who caught 40 last year.

The strength of the defense is the secondary, and the Bulldogs will often look to play five at a time. Four starters return there, and look for a fifth, JUCO transfer Chris Swain, to make an instant impact.

Stay tuned for more college football previews from Kevin Beane in his new column, "Slant Pattern!"

Have something to say? Visit the message boards and discuss this article.

Comments? Agree? Disagree? Send in your feedback about this article.

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