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-   -   Is it time to examine the penalty shot? (https://www.sports-central.org/community/boards/showthread.php?t=8611)

Karen M 11-02-2003 09:54 PM

Is it time to examine the penalty shot?
 
The penalty shot is to give a team an opportunity to score a goal when a penalty has occured that interferes with a scoring chance. (Stick tossing by a goalie could be argued as not relevent to that, I guess)
These days, the penalty shot advantage is statistically with the goalie.
I'd like to see it changed to give the wronged team a choice of penalty shot or 2 min penalty.

lmanchur. 11-06-2003 02:07 PM

The team that will be penalized gets the thoice???? No, if anything, it should be the team on who the fraction was committed that gets the choice... but on one shot your odds are 50/50... on a PP, the odds are variable depending on the two teams, etc.... there is a reason there are situations where PS's are awarded instead of PP's.... if the goalie knocks the net off in the last minute you want a penalty shot, not a PP 'cuz you hardly have time to set up a PP in less than a minute.... they should leave the rule as is.

Karen M 11-11-2003 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SC-Lee
The team that will be penalized gets the thoice???? No, if anything, it should be the team on who the fraction was committed that gets the choice... but on one shot your odds are 50/50... on a PP, the odds are variable depending on the two teams, etc.... there is a reason there are situations where PS's are awarded instead of PP's.... if the goalie knocks the net off in the last minute you want a penalty shot, not a PP 'cuz you hardly have time to set up a PP in less than a minute.... they should leave the rule as is.
"The wronged team", meaning the team that is awarded a penalty shot. 50/50? You sure about that?

Karen M 11-11-2003 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Karen M
"The wronged team", meaning the team that is awarded a penalty shot. 50/50? You sure about that?
Just thought I'd add this. I think I'll keep my eye on this stat through the season.

--- PENALTY SHOT SUMMARY ---

1. ESA PIRNES (L.A) UNSUCCESSFUL AGAINST MARC-ANDRE FLEURY (PIT)
GAME NO. 13, Oct 10. FINAL SCORE: L.A 3 AT PIT 0

2. ESA PIRNES (L.A) UNSUCCESSFUL AGAINST JOCELYN THIBAULT (CHI)
GAME NO. 29, Oct 12. FINAL SCORE: L.A 4 AT CHI 2

3. ANTTI LAAKSONEN (MIN) UNSUCCESSFUL AGAINST JOHAN HEDBERG (VAN)
GAME NO. 63, Oct 18. FINAL SCORE: VAN 2 AT MIN 2

4. MARIAN HOSSA (OTT) SCORED AGAINST EVGENI NABOKOV (S.J)
GAME NO. 68, Oct 18. FINAL SCORE: OTT 4 AT S.J 1

5. BRENDAN SHANAHAN (DET) UNSUCCESSFUL AGAINST TOMMY SALO (EDM)
GAME NO. 159, Nov 1. FINAL SCORE: DET 4 AT EDM 4

6. PATRIK STEFAN (ATL) SCORED AGAINST MARTIN BIRON (BUF)
GAME NO. 175, Nov 5. FINAL SCORE: ATL 7 AT BUF 4

7. JAN HLAVAC (NYR) SCORED AGAINST KEVIN WEEKES (CAR)
GAME NO. 181, Nov 6. FINAL SCORE: NYR 3 AT CAR 6

8. ERIC NICKULAS (STL) UNSUCCESSFUL AGAINST DAN CLOUTIER (VAN)
GAME NO. 185, Nov 6. FINAL SCORE: VAN 2 AT STL 3


TOTAL SHOTS: 8
TOTAL GOALS: 3

lmanchur. 11-12-2003 08:46 AM

The odds are still 50/50 because there are only to outcomes: either goal or no goal. What actually happens is another story.

mutus 12-06-2003 04:14 PM

wow one player was awarded a penalty shot twice in consecutive games? dont' see that too often.

Brad O. 12-13-2003 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by SC-Lee
The odds are still 50/50 because there are only to outcomes: either goal or no goal. What actually happens is another story.
Lee, I think you're a little confused about this whole math thing. When you flip a coin, the odds of heads (or tails) is 50-50 because there are only two outcomes AND because each outcome is equally likely. When an NBA player takes a foul shot, there are only two outcomes, but NBA FT percentages are above 70%. When an NBA player takes a foul shot, or when an NHL player takes a penalty shot, the two outcomes are NOT equally likely to occur. Karen is right. I like the idea she proposed, although I have to think teams would almost always take the penalty shot. If you were sitting on a big lead, though, it might make more sense to take the power play and burn a couple minutes off the clock.

BobbyBaseball 01-02-2004 05:49 PM

Doesn't the penalty killing squad have a huge statistical advantage? I could be way off base, but don't most teams kill of penalties at a 90% clip?

lmanchur. 01-06-2004 01:45 PM

Yup. A GREAT PP unit is between 15 and 25 at MOST.

Karen M 03-08-2004 08:06 AM

Update, successful penalty shots remain consistant at one for three.


Sunday, March 07, 2004

2003-2004 NHL Team Statistics - Penalty Shot Summary

9. Pavel Datsyuk (Det) unsuccessful against Dwayne Roloson (Min)
Game No. 249, Nov 15. Final Score: Det 1 at Min 1

10. Marco Sturm (S.J) unsuccessful against Mikael Tellqvist (Tor)
Game No. 252, Nov 15. Final Score: Tor 2 at S.J 2

11. Marian Gaborik (Min) scored against Sebastien Caron (Pit)
Game No. 265, Nov 19. Final Score: Min 6 at Pit 2

12. Michael Peca (NYI) unsuccessful against Roberto Luongo (Fla)
Game No. 267, Nov 19. Final Score: NYI 4 at Fla 1

13. Keith Tkachuk (StL) unsuccessful against Marty Turco (Dal)
Game No. 293, Nov 22. Final Score: Dal 1 at StL 2

14. Erik Cole (Car) unsuccessful against Sebastien Caron (Pit)
Game No. 341, Nov 29. Final Score: Pit 3 at Car 4

15. Shean Donovan (Cal) scored against Vesa Toskala (S.J)
Game No. 361, Dec 2. Final Score: S.J 1 at Cal 3

16. Nils Ekman (S.J) scored against Ron Tugnutt (Dal)
Game No. 395, Dec 6. Final Score: Dal 1 at S.J 2

17. Patrik Elias (N.J) unsuccessful against Garth Snow (NYI)
Game No. 411, Dec 10. Final Score: NYI 0 at N.J 1

18. Dainius Zubrus (Was) scored against Andrew Raycroft (Bos)
Game No. 417, Dec 11. Final Score: Bos 5 at Was 6

19. Brett Hull (Det) unsuccessful against Olaf Kolzig (Was)
Game No. 436, Dec 13. Final Score: Det 5 at Was 1

20. Vaclav Nedorost (Fla) unsuccessful against Tomas Vokoun (Nas)
Game No. 440, Dec 13. Final Score: Fla 2 at Nas 2

21. Pavol Demitra (StL) unsuccessful against Marc Denis (Clb)
Game No. 455, Dec 16. Final Score: Clb 1 at StL 2

22. Oleg Saprykin (Cal) unsuccessful against Dan Cloutier (Van)
Game No. 519, Dec 26. Final Score: Van 2 at Cal 0

23. Richard Park (Min) scored against Miikka Kiprusoff (Cal)
Game No. 545, Dec 29. Final Score: Min 2 at Cal 2

24. Eric Meloche (Pit) unsuccessful against Jussi Markkanen (NYR)
Game No. 575, Jan 3. Final Score: NYR 4 at Pit 1

25. Jarome Iginla (Cal) unsuccessful against Alexander Auld (Van)
Game No. 585, Jan 3. Final Score: Van 3 at Cal 1

26. Nathan Horton (Fla) scored against Jeff Hackett (Phi)
Game No. 612, Jan 8. Final Score: Fla 4 at Phi 3

27. Milan Hejduk (Col) scored against Michael Leighton (Chi)
Game No. 639, Jan 11. Final Score: Col 5 at Chi 4

28. Daniel Sedin (Van) unsuccessful against J Giguere (Ana)
Game No. 685, Jan 17. Final Score: Ana 2 at Van 1

29. Milan Hejduk (Col) scored against Nikolai Khabibulin (T.B)
Game No. 693, Jan 19. Final Score: Col 5 at T.B 4

30. Richard Zednik (Mon) unsuccessful against Robert Esche (Phi)
Game No. 699, Jan 20. Final Score: Mon 4 at Phi 1

31. Grant Marshall (N.J) unsuccessful against Jose Theodore (Mon)
Game No. 724, Jan 23. Final Score: Mon 0 at N.J 2

32. Mike Modano (Dal) unsuccessful against Chris Osgood (StL)
Game No. 726, Jan 23. Final Score: StL 0 at Dal 2

33. P.J. Axelsson (Bos) unsuccessful against Roberto Luongo (Fla)
Game No. 729, Jan 24. Final Score: Fla 2 at Bos 1

34. Jason Blake (NYI) unsuccessful against Pasi Nurminen (Atl)
Game No. 732, Jan 24. Final Score: NYI 3 at Atl 0

35. Dan Boyle (T.B) unsuccessful against Marc-Andre Fleury (Pit)
Game No. 752, Jan 27. Final Score: T.B 6 at Pit 2

36. Brian Holzinger (Pit) unsuccessful against John Grahame (T.B)
Game No. 752, Jan 27. Final Score: T.B 6 at Pit 2

37. Shean Donovan (Cal) scored against Sean Burke (Pho)
Game No. 754, Jan 27. Final Score: Cal 2 at Pho 1

38. Wes Walz (Min) scored against Reinhard Divis (StL)
Game No. 795, Feb 2. Final Score: StL 0 at Min 4

39. David Vyborny (Clb) scored against Brian Boucher (Pho)
Game No. 797, Feb 2. Final Score: Clb 3 at Pho 3

40. Alexander Korolyuk (S.J) unsuccessful against Roberto Luongo (Fla)
Game No. 807, Feb 3. Final Score: Fla 0 at S.J 3

41. Jarkko Ruutu (Van) unsuccessful against Pasi Nurminen (Atl)
Game No. 852, Feb 13. Final Score: Atl 4 at Van 1

42. Matthew Barnaby (NYR) unsuccessful against Patrick Lalime (Ott)
Game No. 869, Feb 16. Final Score: Ott 4 at NYR 1

43. Antti Laaksonen (Min) scored against Dan Cloutier (Van)
Game No. 899, Feb 19. Final Score: Van 2 at Min 6

44. Simon Gagne (Phi) scored against Pasi Nurminen (Atl)
Game No. 907, Feb 21. Final Score: Atl 4 at Phi 5

45. Jonathan Cheechoo (S.J) scored against Pascal Leclaire (Clb)
Game No. 928, Feb 23. Final Score: Clb 2 at S.J 4

46. Alexei Zhamnov (Phi) unsuccessful against Michael Leighton (Chi)
Game No. 931, Feb 24. Final Score: Chi 1 at Phi 3

47. Paul Kariya (Col) unsuccessful against Marc Denis (Clb)
Game No. 963, Feb 28. Final Score: Col 4 at Clb 5

48. Pavol Demitra (StL) unsuccessful against Johan Hedberg (Van)
Game No. 965, Feb 28. Final Score: StL 0 at Van 2

49. Ryan Smyth (Edm) unsuccessful against Chris Osgood (StL)
Game No. 998, Mar 4. Final Score: Edm 1 at StL 1

50. Shean Donovan (Cal) unsuccessful against Marty Turco (Dal)
Game No. 1006, Mar 5. Final Score: Cal 1 at Dal 5

Total Shots: 50
Total Goals: 17

lmanchur. 03-08-2004 08:20 AM

That's still better than the best power play in the league!

BobbyBaseball 03-09-2004 06:03 PM

exactly sc:)....so there is an edge in having a penalty shot instead of a powerplay. I don't think most teams score on the powerplay at a clip of 33%. I love the penalty shot and wish they'd institute a shootout after a scoreless first ot.


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