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-   -   Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks (https://www.sports-central.org/community/boards/showthread.php?t=28174)

Anthony 12-03-2019 06:52 PM

Anthony's Week 14 NFL Pointspread Picks
 
Last week: 10-6. Season totals: 86-102-4, Pct. .458. Best Bets: 20-18-1, Pct. .526.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.



THURSDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO
17 (+3), Dallas 10 - Warm-weather and domed-stadium teams are now a costly 2-13 straight up and 4-11 against the spread in cold weather on the year, and a kickoff-time temperature of 36 with a wind chill of 29 is forecast for Soldier Field. Fairly or not, Jason Garrett is on the hot seat - Jerry Jones ominously saying Tuesday that Garrett will coach in the NFL next year - and that seat will get even hotter after this loss in the cold.


SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS
33, Miami 16 (+5 1/2) - The Jets have a much better secondary than the one Ryan Fitzpatrick torched last week, and Miami has seven consecutive losses and non-covers by a combined 232-111 as a visitor in cold weather - and the Dolphins haven't exactly been doin' it to death on artificial turf of late either: 8-23 straight up and 10-21 against the spread since 2013, even though they did snap an eight-game losing streak on that surface with a win at Indianapolis four weeks ago.

BUFFALO 16 (+6), Baltimore 13 - The Bills are what the Ravens used to be, winning ugly, with defense - but Baltimore went into big-time nostalgia mode last week, with just 283 yards of offense, including 105 passing. And the home team in this series has won seven in row, with Team Modell not having won in the Empire State (the Bills being the state's only team, of course) since 1986. Upset special in one of the biggest games of the week.

ATLANTA 28, Carolina 10 (+3) - What could have changed since the Falcons spanked the Panthers 29-3 at Carolina just three weeks ago for their sixth win in the last seven meetings? And since 2008 Carolina is 18-31-1 straight up and 19-31 against the line as a visitor on the carpet, and 13-23 straight up and 10-15 against the line inside NFL domes.

Indianapolis 27 (+3), TAMPA BAY 14 - The Colts have covered five straight over the Bucs, and the team with the better personnel is an underdog. One or two of Jameis Winston's patented interceptions (he has a league-leading 20) and Tampa Bay will be finished.

CLEVELAND 34, Cincinnati 17 (+10 1/2) - The Browns easily covered a similar spread against a similarly lousy team two weeks ago, and it will be a long time before they get tired of drilling the Bengals, who had drilled them seven times in a row by a combined 213-63 before last year's Cleveland sweep by 61-38.

GREEN BAY 31, Washington 10 (+13 1/2) - The Team That Dares Not Speak Its Name hasn't won in Green Bay since 1986 (0-4 straight up, 0-3-1 against the spread, outscored 122-43). This is the time of year when playoff contenders have a huge advantage over non-contenders, regardless of either the size of the spread or the presence or absence of trends like the one quoted above.

San Francisco 34 (+3), NEW ORLEANS 28 - Another sound late-season principle is to take a team that is fighting to get into the playoffs over a team that is already in - and the 49ers need a win plus a Rams loss on Sunday night to punch the same ticket to the playoffs that the Saints punched themselves last week.

HOUSTON 27, Denver 24 (+10) - Remember that Goodrich tire commercial whose tag line was "We're the other guys"? Well Drew Lock is "the other guy," and he won his debut last week over the Chargers - a win that stretched Denver's cover streak to five inside NFL domes. Take the points against a Texans team that is caught between the Scylla of letdown (coming off a win over who had been their biggest tormentors, the Patriots) and the Charybdis of looking ahead (they play at their closest pursuers in the AFC South, the Titans, next week).

MINNESOTA 23, Detroit 0 (+13) - David Blough was blah after his first two drives on Thanksgiving, and the Vikings beat Matthew Stafford 42-30 in Detroit seven weeks ago, giving them four straight wins and covers over the Lions by a combined 52 points. Despite Kirk Cousins just being Kirk Cousins again on Monday night - losing to an over-.500 team, and on prime time - the Vikings control their own destiny for a playoff berth: Four wins and they're in.

L.A. Chargers 24, JACKSONVILLE 13 (+2 1/2) - The 4-8 Chargers have a plus-3 point differential, while the 4-8 Jags benched Nick Foles last week and two of their lineman, one offensive, one defensive (it always seems to work that way) had to be separated after the game, and both head coaches are on everyone's endangered list. Not the kind of game you want to get action down on - except of course for the "weasel line" (two and a half).

Kansas City 37 (+3 1/2), NEW ENGLAND 31 - New England's 21-game home winning streak has to end sometime, and the Chiefs have had this date circled on their calendars for eight months after not having had the chance to possess the ball in overtime of last year's AFC championship game. It would be poetic justice indeed if this one goes into overtime, KC wins the coin toss, and Patrick Mahomes directs a game-winning touchdown drive - and pop goes the other "weasel line" (three and a half) here.

Pittsburgh 28, ARIZONA 14 (+2 1/2) - And here the "weasel line" is especially important because the Steelers are 9-4 straight up but only 7-6 against the line since 2009 inside NFL domes. The immediate outlook in Arizona is incredibly bleak, similar to that of the Houston Oilers in the early '70s.

Tennessee 35, OAKLAND 27 (+2 1/2) - The home team has lost the last four meetings both ways - and with the "weasel line" rearing its head yet again, if that streak holds up outright it will almost certainly do so pointwise as well. An Oakland loss and a Kansas City win gives Fat Boy his fourth consecutive AFC West crown.

Seattle 31, L.A. RAMS 20 (+2 1/2) - Definitely my kind of week - four two-and-a-half point lines and one three-and-a-half-point line. Plus the Seahawks will be seeking their sixth win and cover on grass in 2019, after having gone 46-74-1 straight up and 50-66-5 against the spread on it from 1998 through 2018.


MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Giants
17 (+9), PHILADELPHIA 14 - Physically, the Giants are younger, faster, and stronger than the Eagles. If Daniel Jones can manage to hold the miscues to a minimum and the defense avoids major breakdowns, an upset is a possibility.


BEST BETS: N.Y. JETS, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE


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